Tom Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Over the past couple days, the models have been flashing the idea of a system forming near the TX Panhandle/OK region and tracking up near the OHV. While there are differences in track and strength, there seems to be a solid trend that we may be tracking a potential significant winter storm. Let's discuss.... 18z GEFS came in juicier and showing more development farther SW which bodes well for a lot of us on here. I like the grouping near OK and a quicker storm development as it tracks ENE towards the Lower Lakes. Thus, the snow shield expanded farther west...let's see where this trends over the coming days. It certainly looks like Winter is coming back early next week! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 The last 10 GEFS runs definitely trending towards a stronger southern energy which has been one of the "hot spots" of storm development this season. I'm very encouraged that we are seeing these trends and hopefully they continue. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 APX is onboard.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 The last 10 GEFS runs definitely trending towards a stronger southern energy which has been one of the "hot spots" of storm development this season. I'm very encouraged that we are seeing these trends and hopefully they continue. Notice that the HB vortex is shown much stronger in final frame. Will that keep this from cutting hard?? 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 GRR Next weather feature of interest is a sfc low which developsalong the stalled frontal zone Sunday night/Monday then movesnortheast. Still some uncertainty regarding the timing, track andstrength of this wave, but at this time it looks like mostly arain scenario on Monday, changing to snow Monday night as the wavetracks by and pulls in the colder air. If the wave tracks farenough south and is delayed until Monday night though there maybe a risk of some synoptic wet snow accumulations - especiallyfor northern areas. Kudos to them for at least mentioning the snowier outcome possibilities. That's all I ask, a courtesy mention. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Notice that the HB vortex is shown much stronger in final frame. Will that keep this from cutting hard??I’m seeing a stronger surface HP directly discharged from the Arctic due to the -EPO. This can also displace the Hudson Bay Vortex farthe south. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 I’m seeing a stronger surface HP directly discharged from the Arctic due to the -EPO. This can also displace the Hudson Bay Vortex farthe south. But..but..what happened to our torch-n-bore December?? Is it "going up in flakes"?? 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 But..but..what happened to our torch-n-bore December?? Is it "going up in flakes"??You betcha! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 TWC is even on board saying that rain will potentially go ova to heavy snow and wind monday night into Tuesday morning. We will see! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 With a potent storm in mind, there is a significant risk of heavy snow and strong winds over the western and northern Great Lakes region. At least one of the major hubs of Chicago or Detroit would be hit hard by such a storm, resulting in significant travel delays. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 0z GFS fairly weak. More in line with the 12z Euro where the clipper stays north and nothing develops south and east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 0z GFS fairly weak. More in line with the 12z Euro where the clipper stays north and nothing develops south and east.The GFS is super fast with the flow, it will be interesting to see if it trends back slower and stronger with the southern piece. My money is on the slower stronger look. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Ya, terrible runs last night...hopefully today they will get better...mid-range chaos as I like to say...@ Clinton, how does the EPS look through 12/11? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 06z GEFS came in a lot better for those out west in the Plains/MW... 12-hr precip totals have a better look to it...trying hard to develop earlier but I'd like to see these maps grow stronger on today's 12z run... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Ya, terrible runs last night...hopefully today they will get better...mid-range chaos as I like to say...@ Clinton, how does the EPS look through 12/11?Here ya go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Thanks for posting...sheesh, EPS is weak sauce...GEFS vs EPS...the battle continues... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Here's a look at the GFS mean and ensembles, which seem to be painting a colder snowier storm and more in line with the LRC. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Here's a look at the GFS mean and ensembles, which seem to be painting a colder snowier storm and more in line with the LRC. I agree, the GFS/GEFS are certainly showing the southern wave developing a lot better instead of a strung out system per the Euro. I have to say, this would be a big coupe by the GFS if it materializes. Maybe the Euro comes back in today's midday run. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 I agree, the GFS/GEFS are certainly showing the southern wave developing a lot better instead of a strung out system per the Euro. I have to say, this would be a big coupe by the GFS if it materializes. Maybe the Euro comes back in today's midday run. I agree, the GFS/GEFS are certainly showing the southern wave developing a lot better instead of a strung out system per the Euro. I have to say, this would be a big coupe by the GFS if it materializes. Maybe the Euro comes back in today's midday run. Ya I think the GFS/GEFS is in the lead right now. The Euro also doesn't seem to be depicting the cold right as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Isnt the Euro known for lagging the energy too long out west? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Des Moines current take on it:A more substantial change is expected into early next week as theupper flow amplifies across the central United States. Increasedforcing is expected by late Sunday night into Monday with theapproach of the upper trof/shortwave. While the airmass isinitially dry, sustained lift will eventually lead to saturationin northern Iowa by early Monday with an increased threat of snow.Farther south, forcing is not as strong with widespread clouds buta much more limited threat of precipitation. Winds will be quitestrong on Monday given the robust cold advection behind thesurface front and have increased the wind velocity. Otherwise, adecent thermal trof approaches by Tuesday with 850mb temperaturesof -18C to -23C into the state. This in combination with the windwill lower wind chills to near or below zero across the entirearea by Tuesday morning. Only slight improvement is seen into themiddle of the week, albeit with dry conditions. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Looks like the same areas that got hit last week twice, will get hit again with this next one. GFS has this as a very high ratio event, looks like 15-20:1. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Looks like the same areas that got hit last week twice, will get hit again with this next one. GFS has this as a very high ratio event, looks like 15-20:1. I think this is the last snow event map Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 So far, not so good for us down south...trends are looking good for up north... 12z Canadian... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Another east coast monster in the making Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 oh well...on to the next up north (WI) is on record setting pace! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Look-out down south.... This thread was for the first storm early next week bud. I guess the late week/end event can be posted in the Dec thread for now? Again, I doubt it stays that far south. I think we've got a shot with this one. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 What happened to the southern energy? Dang Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Well crap Euro going to win. always got Les to hope for here though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Euro coming in further south than the GFS, but still only gets snow to the IA/MN border basically. The storm seems to really pickup speed and the precip gets shunted off to the east before the cold air arrives in Iowa anyways. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 GFS Ensembles, not really supporting the operational run 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 This thread was for the first storm early next week bud. I guess the late week/end event can be posted in the Dec thread for now? Again, I doubt it stays that far south. I think we've got a shot with this one. Yep..you are right. I'll remove it buddy. Thanks for reminding me. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Yep..you are right. I'll remove it buddy. Thanks for reminding me. Nice avatar picture btw! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 WPC says the north gets even snowier. N Stream clipper system + LES following: Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 APX .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)Issued at 258 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019High Impact Weather: Potential winter storm early next week followedby cold temps.On Sunday, a trough across central Canada will develop a cyclonenear Hudson Bay. A cold front associated with this system isexpected to sweep down across southern Ontario and the northernGreat Lakes late Sunday into Monday. Temperatures warm ahead of thisand will support rain later Sunday into Monday before the arrival ofthe next system, which is the main focus of this period. Thiscyclone will develop in the southern Great Plains early Mondaybefore quickly moving/deepening along the previously mentionedboundary into the southern Great Lakes. Rain, wintry mix, and snoware all possible across northern Michigan with this system. However,considerable uncertainty still exists regarding details andlocations of greatest impacts. Behind this system, very cold airencompasses the area with temperatures in the single digits/teensbeginning Wednesday through the end of the week with wind chillsbelow zero possible.&& 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 slight improvement for areas south of Minnesota on the 18z GFS. Looked for a moment like it was showing signs of coming together earlier and stronger, but it stays pretty weak down here, but does put out some snow. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Here’s MPX’s take right now: QPF has increased on the deterministic models to between0.25-0.4 inches along a stripe across the CWA. The ensemblesaren`t quite this wet, aside from the highest members. So, stillsome uncertainty with this snow forecast. Snow ratios should behigh as temperatures fall into the teens, thinking at least 15:1.This is bolstered by light winds along the cold front that onlybegin to strengthen toward the end of the snow. Deterministicmodels would suggest 4-8 inches, while the ensemble mean would bemore like 2-4. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 6, 2019 Report Share Posted December 6, 2019 Nice avatar picture btw! Thanks amigo 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted December 6, 2019 Report Share Posted December 6, 2019 GFS back to a more progressive solution. ICON/CMC very similar tonight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 6, 2019 Report Share Posted December 6, 2019 A shift in the track of the storm could spread accumulating snow farther south toward Chicago or Detroit. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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