Hawkeye Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 UK is not strong, but it does bring an inch up to Cedar Rapids now. It seems more models are focusing on the first piece of energy that moves through Sunday/Sunday night. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 The early start to the snow season and now lull is going exactly as I expected. Yup, I expect January to be good. 1 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 I am sitting on the southern edge of all the 12z models so far, not a great place to be. Even the 12z GFS that was posted? Just how far south are you buddy? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Notice how the ICON makes a sudden move north. Hoping all the models get to that track, then get an increase in moisture to go with.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Yup, it came in much more healthy looking...its even trying to phase this into a strong OHV cutter....severe wx down south??? ICON suddenly leading the charge for a less progressive slider?? Goes from "ICON = no storm" to ICON ftw 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Even the 12z GFS that was posted? Just how far south are you buddy?About 20 miles north of the .6 that is SE of KC. Ironically that town is called Clinton lol. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Classic AFD from my office.. Still some uncertainty surrounding the track of a low pressuresystem during the Monday/Tuesday time frame. Latest deterministicEuro and Euro ensemble mean track the center of the low througheastern Ohio, which is just a little further north than the GFS(both deterministic and ensemble mean). Confidence is increasing alot of our area will not see much directly from this system, butwe could clip the southeast portion of the forecast area (south ofI-94 and near/west of US 127) with a little bit of snow Mondayinto Monday night. Colder air funneling into West Michigan behindthe system (especially near/west of US 131) may end up being moreimpactful as lake-effect snow becomes likely Tuesday night andWednesday. Temperatures will also plummet again, with highs onWednesday falling back into the 20s. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 This is going to be a good EURO run for me! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Yeah, the euro is solid.... for KS/MO. The low is just way too far south for Iowa. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 12z EURO 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Model flip flop, gotta love it. I'm resigned to an inch at best on this one. Gonna have to hope for a surprise somewhere down the line to get a White Christmas. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Hoping all the models get to that track, then get an increase in moisture to go with.. That would be awesome! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 I'll take the Euro please! Seriously. Please!!The Euro with Kuchera 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Euro terrible for Nebraska folks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Euro terrible for most folks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 GFS is nothing but garbage nowadays Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Interesting the Nam is the outlined currently. If grown quite fond of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 12z Euro mean 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Euro terrible for most folksCorrect Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Those of us below the 39th parallel are the ugly stepsisters around here. That + people west of the Missouri river Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 The Euro with Kuchera Euro Op gets juiced but stays zonal heading east. Alrighty then.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Euro Op gets juiced but stays zonal heading east. Alrighty thenA lot of the ensembles did cut it, lets see what it says tonight when it makes landfall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Up to 14 Euro Ensembles with a solid hit for up to Iowa City area or thereabouts. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 A lot of the ensembles did cut it, lets see what it says tonight when it makes landfall. For sure. Consistency is still lacking imho. ENS members continue north of the OP. If Vet's Day is any clue, this is far from set in concrete, lol 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 18Z NAM is putting a heavy band across Central Nebraska through 45 Hours. Going to interesting where this band lines up in the future runs. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 18z NAM has a foot for Omaha. Where's Craig? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Lock this puppy in! LOL 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 ..meanwhile, my office yesterday went from big system to no system. Now back to just "watching it" For Monday into Tuesday...guidance continues to track an area oflow pressure up the Ohio Valley. Southern parts of the CWA fromKalamazoo to near Jackson are shown to be on the northwest fringesof the snow shield. Most model solutions keep the axis of heaviersnow across Indiana and Ohio. We will feature relatively high POPsfor southern parts of the CWA with light accumulations. We willneed to monitor the system closely as a northward shift in thetrack could put more snow into our region. Following the passageof this storm system...a temporary surge of arctic air moves in.This will increase the lake effect snow which could lead to sometravel impacts for the area along and west of a Big Rapids toBattle Creek line. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Lock this puppy in! LOL Seems like a theme this year. Models show a LOT less snow further east in the Mitt at this range, then the last 36 hrs (or less with Dec 1st) the snow gets amped. Would be nice if could pull this off again. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Pouring rain here. How odd. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 I'm liking these trends. Looking forward to tonight's runs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 3k NAM moving towards the 12k NAM. Storm isn't done yet at the end of the run, so totals to the east are lower, but it's showing a solid band moving across much of the south half of Iowa. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 18Z icon looks like the Euro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 18Z icon looks like the Euro Yeah, 18z ICON steps back yet again by flattening and stretching out the energy. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Yeah, 18z ICON steps back yet again by flattening and stretching out the energy.NAM has the first wave doing the damage Euro and Icon have the second wave more organized. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Okay, everyone sing along with me.... NAM to the north of meICON to the southHere I am stuck in the middle with you! 7 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Amazing how different the models can be for the heaviest snows. NAM across Nebraska and Iowa, ICON and Euro Kansas to Missouri. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 here's the last frame of the 3k NAM 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Go Nam go! Lol 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Amazing how far away the from the center of the low pressure that precip shield would be.That also highlights another issue with the nam solution. I'm pretty sure there is a small chance of severe weather. That would kill our chances Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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