jaster220 Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 18z NAM3k with an epic early switch-over up in NWMI. Showing rates that are at the high end of their map scale (little blob of pink). That'd be 6+ inches/hr! Wouldn't that be something to experience? Would be rare in this part of the world if it did happen. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 18z NAM3k with an epic early switch-over up in NWMI. Showing rates that are at the high end of their map scale (little blob of pink). That'd be 6+ inches/hr! Wouldn't that be something to experience? Would be rare in this part of the world if it did happen. 20191229 18z NAM_Surf_fh20.GIFMan, that looks like a wall of snow ready to snow you in. Something you wont see, not even during an EC massive blizzard!! :lol: 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 MPX expands the WSW westward to the MN/WI border and says additional westward expansion may be needed if heavier snow total trends continue. Looks like 4-6” expected for now with rates up to 1”/hr. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 There should be some pretty big wind potential early Monday in a zone from eastern IN into parts of OH/MI. Surface low deepens very quickly and so there is a corresponding robust response in the low level wind fields. I think some areas will flirt with or get into high wind warning criteria for a time. Dude! You're on it. Idk how you keep up with it all, all the time no less! Major kudos btw So, first I likely have flooding concerns with the SLP now progged to ride just to my east: Then, winds become a potential issue: -- Strong winds with snow Monday afternoon into Tuesday --12z model guidance has caught our attention with regard topotentially higher impact wind gusts than originally thought. Offirst interest will be the immediate cold advection on the backside of the deepening low across south central Lower Michiganearly Monday morning. While several HRRR runs have been off thecharts with some surface wind gusts across the US 127 corridor(occasionally over 80 mph from Jackson to Lansing from 09z-12zMon) we do not believe this is realistic and may be a byproduct ofthe model over-deepening the low and simulating winds that are toohigh 1k-2k ft off the ground. However, with the Euro ensemblemembers jumping on board with a high wind threat across the sameregion (especially east of US 131 from 09z-12z Mon) we aremore concerned now. The ensemble mean wind gust at JXN for 12z Monday is 55 mph andfor LAN it is 58 mph. Thus we are anticipating a swath of 55-60mph wind gusts to surge into south central Lower Michigan as thesfc low deepens overhead, bringing with it a threat for poweroutages on the morning of New Year`s Eve. Wind gusts of 40-50 mphmay also stretch all the way west toward Lake Michigan earlyMonday morning. Once we are entrenched in cold air advectionMonday afternoon/evening, wind gusts hold up in the 35-45 mphrange with gusts to 50 mph along the lakeshore. Scattered poweroutages may continue to be a problem throughout the day. Who posted a couple days ago that the Euro seemed like it was trying to be as boring as possible?? My how things have changed! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 mkx go9ng 2in for most of the forecast area Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 ..and finally, the snowy part of this storm For the winter aspect, things look on track and if anything wehave bumped up snow totals a bit. The hardest hit areas look to beeast of the immediate lakeshore given the wind speeds smearinglake enhanced bands of snow inland, but coastal locations willstill accumulate. Totals will likely reach 3"-7" near and west ofUS 131, with some local amounts over 7" possible. East of thisregion, a general 1"-3" is expected even as far east as US 127.Model snow water equivalent has consistently been in the0.30"-0.50" range for the snow portion of the system. Using ourBufkit snow tool with various models yields the 3"-7" forecast weare currently running with for the hardest hit areas. Heavy snowrates can be expected prior to and right during the Tuesdaymorning commute when an inch or more per hour is possible. Surfacetemperatures at or below freezing combined with steady snow willcause slick travel and delays.We have decided to combine the snow and wind impacts into oneWinter Weather Advisory product as opposed to two. We willalready be lighting up the map with a Lakeshore Flood Advisory andareal Flood Advisory, so condensing the Winter and Wind headlinesinto one is favored to avoid over complicating our WWA system. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 mkx go9ng 2in for most of the forecast area1-3 here while one county north is under a WWA for 3-6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 HRRR beats others in tanking the SLP. 18z got it down to 974 mb's and look at that snow shield clear back to WMN 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 ..and finally, the snowy part of this storm 20191229 KRMY WWA.GIFThere ya go amigo! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 1-3 here while one county north is under a WWA for 3-6Looks like they just added my county 3-6 in the forecast now 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 The 18zGFS has a 975mb low just north of my area for tomorrow. Pretty impressive. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Jaster--there ya go! Hope we can do better, but I will take anything at this point. Btw: My totals just got upped to 2-3inches w addional accumuations possibly early evening tomorrow. I like your Headline....... Winter Weather AdvisoryURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Grand Rapids MI406 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019MIZ039-040-045-046-051-052-058-059-066-067-073-074-300515-/O.NEW.KGRR.WW.Y.0030.191230T0900Z-200101T0000Z/Osceola-Clare-Mecosta-Isabella-Montcalm-Gratiot-Ionia-Clinton-Eaton-Ingham-Calhoun-Jackson-Including the cities of Reed City, Clare, Big Rapids,Mount Pleasant, Greenville, Alma, Ionia, St. Johns, Charlotte,Lansing, Battle Creek, and Jackson406 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM ESTTUESDAY...* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph Monday morning and then up to 40 mph Monday afternoon into Tuesday.* WHERE...Portions of central and south central Michigan.* WHEN...From 4 AM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The most hazardous winter weather conditions will be late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Plan on Tuesday morning commute delays. Scattered power outages are possible. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Jaster--there ya go! Hope we can do better, but I will take anything at this point. Btw: My totals just got upped to 2-3inches w addional accumuations possibly early evening tomorrow. I like your Headline....... Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 406 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019 MIZ039-040-045-046-051-052-058-059-066-067-073-074-300515- /O.NEW.KGRR.WW.Y.0030.191230T0900Z-200101T0000Z/ Osceola-Clare-Mecosta-Isabella-Montcalm-Gratiot-Ionia-Clinton- Eaton-Ingham-Calhoun-Jackson- Including the cities of Reed City, Clare, Big Rapids, Mount Pleasant, Greenville, Alma, Ionia, St. Johns, Charlotte, Lansing, Battle Creek, and Jackson 406 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph Monday morning and then up to 40 mph Monday afternoon into Tuesday. * WHERE...Portions of central and south central Michigan. * WHEN...From 4 AM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The most hazardous winter weather conditions will be late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Plan on Tuesday morning commute delays. Scattered power outages are possible.Good luck! I’m in the sweet spot for LEHS. They are Going with 4-7” here with 40-55 mph gusts. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Jaster--there ya go! Hope we can do better, but I will take anything at this point. Btw: My totals just got upped to 2-3inches w addional accumuations possibly early evening tomorrow. I like your Headline....... Winter Weather AdvisoryURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Grand Rapids MI406 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019MIZ039-040-045-046-051-052-058-059-066-067-073-074-300515-/O.NEW.KGRR.WW.Y.0030.191230T0900Z-200101T0000Z/Osceola-Clare-Mecosta-Isabella-Montcalm-Gratiot-Ionia-Clinton-Eaton-Ingham-Calhoun-Jackson-Including the cities of Reed City, Clare, Big Rapids,Mount Pleasant, Greenville, Alma, Ionia, St. Johns, Charlotte,Lansing, Battle Creek, and Jackson406 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM ESTTUESDAY...* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph Monday morning and then up to 40 mph Monday afternoon into Tuesday.* WHERE...Portions of central and south central Michigan.* WHEN...From 4 AM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The most hazardous winter weather conditions will be late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Plan on Tuesday morning commute delays. Scattered power outages are possible. Nice! Cheers to an over-performer for all of us! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Getting some moderate snow in Omaha currently, so far it’s been enough to cover the ground. Glad to at least see some snow on the back side of this system. Only expecting an inch of snow here, but the radar looks good for that or maybe a bit more over the next few hours. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Actually have some decent snowfall currently. Have a decent band slowly working through but we will see how long it last 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Per IWX 338 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019 /238 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019/...Strong Wind Gusts Expected At Times Late Tonight...Strong southwest winds are expected to gust up to around 40 mphat times late tonight and into Monday. Be sure to secure looseobjects like lawn furniture and holiday decorations as well astrash cans that could be lofted within these winds. Don't let Santa and his reindeers blow away! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Good luck! I’m in the sweet spot for LEHS. They are Going with 4-7” here with 40-55 mph gusts.Thx...yep, should be fun watching this snowevent unfold. You are looking golden w this. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Actually have some decent snowfall currently. Have a decent band slowly working through but we will see how long it lastHope ya score a couple of inches. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Nice! Cheers to an over-performer for all of us! Yes sir! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Hope ya score a couple of inches. Looking like 1 to 1.5 The band is starting to fizz out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Dusting in Lincoln. Maybe a .25” tops Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Getting a little bit of snow this evening, a nice surprise may get a dusting. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Getting a little bit of snow this evening, a nice surprise may get a dusting.Awesome bud......enjoy it! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Looking like 1 to 1.5 The band is starting to fizz out.Great, better than nothing I guess. It will look like a nice Winter Wonderland out there tomorrow during daylight. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Looks like the 30/0z SR models have come into better agreement with the strength and track of the secondary SLP. They're mostly showing a low to mid-980's mb central pressure and a stalling point in E Lk Superior, then back down thru the Straights/Tip of the Mitt region. Both are about as good as I could ask for personally. A deeper low like some were flashing might've been just too much a good thing with wind speeds detrimental to the Lk Michigan contribution facet. Between the expected winds and the occasionally heavy rates, this should make for yet another enjoyable "mini-storm" like I received here on the 17th Here's a 44 hour loop off the NAM. Should be a pretty wild time after all this faux spring weather this week.. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Looks like the 30/0z SR models have come into better agreement with the strength and track of the secondary SLP. They're mostly showing a low to mid-980's mb central pressure and a stalling point in E Lk Superior, then back down thru the Straights/Tip of the Mitt region. Both are about as good as I could ask for personally. A deeper low like some were flashing might've been just too much a good thing with wind speeds detrimental to the Lk Michigan contribution facet. Between the expected winds and the occasionally heavy rates, this should make for yet another enjoyable "mini-storm" like I received here on the 17th Here's a 44 hour loop off the NAM. Should be a pretty wild time after all this faux spring weather this week.. namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_fh10-54.gifLooks like some intense snowfall w this ( at times). 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 APX update. FINALLY mentioning potential smack-down flip to heavy snow rates over NWMI .UPDATE...Issued at 1002 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019 Deep troughing centered just to our west, with well developedshortwave rounding the base of this trough into Missouri.Combination of this wave and excellent upper jet support driving alarge area of moderate to heavy rain across the Ohio Valley intothe lower Great Lakes. Surface response to this deep forcing juststarting to get its act together, with 1000mb low pressure movingnortheast across western Kentucky. Other than some drizzle/verylight showers, our area has been rather quiet this evening as midlevel dry slot remains. Expect rapid changes as we head through the overnight as lowpressure continues to deepening, reaching sub 990mb depth as itmoves across southeast lower Michigan during the early morning.Deep forcing supplied by increasingly negative tilt mid level waveand phenomenal upper jet support will rapidly spread rain northacross our area. Deep warm nose aloft will keep precipitationliquid. However, current surface temperatures are still rightaround freezing for areas north of the big bridge, and withstrengthening east flow, feel these temperatures will changelittle. This continues to support as least pockets of freezingrain, with some areas of northeast Chippewa county perhaps seeingover a tenth of an inch of freezing rain by sunrise. Rain amountswill be quite impressive after midnight for parts of northernlower, with totals up and over three quarters of an inch by Mondaymorning. Complicated forecast as we head through Monday, with increasingsupport for rapid dynamically forced cooling of the warm nosealoft across at least the northwest half of the area. This couldresult in heavy rain quickly transition to snow, with heavy snowrates resulting in quick accumulations and possible hazardousdriving conditions. Will continue to analyze the full 00zguidance suite to access this potential high impact weather. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Looks like some intense snowfall w this ( at times). They haven't moved the needle down my way, but there's some 8+ blobs now showing up in the jackpot zone along Lk Michigan snow belt counties. Wouldn't be surprised if somebody hits double digits, especially liking the region from Grand Haven up to Benzonia. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 My office's AFD's are more like "it's gonna be windy" and "it's a deepening SLP". Things anyone could write really. But when I read stuff I don't fully comprehend, I know there's some serious wx happening. Like this snippet from MQT After this initial slug of WAA precip, focus turns to the developingfgen band/commahead. It is still expected to cover most of the U.P.,but there has been a slight trend east with the strongest fgen latemorning into the afternoon (identified well by the 700 mb fgen) withthe morning model runs. It`s now possible that it sets up just eastof Marquette. The 12z NAM still parked it right over Marquette andthe extended range HRRR still has it over the western U.P., but thehot-off-the-presses 18z NAM did shift east as well.Not only is this forecast an issue of where the fgen band sets upand pivots, but it also matters how much precip ends up gettingwrung out of it in the heavy band. The NAM is an outlier on QPF, butthe convective signal is there so this is one of those cases whereit may be prudent to not write it off immediately. A NAM xsec fromNW to SE is classic for very heavy snow with strong fgen tiltedtowards the cold air. There is -EPV in the 700-500 mb layer, andeven some folding over the saturation isentropes indicating pocketsof elevated CAPE (and plenty of CSI where they`re not folded overbut vertical enough for geostrophic momentum surfaces to show atemporary negative change with height in theta-e*). So we havestrong forcing, instability, and anomalously high moisture amounts(PWATs of about 0.75" would be near-record for the combinedAPX/Sault Ste Marie sounding climo) so it`s definitely believablethat the NAM`s QPF could end up verifying. Sure wish we could get something going of that magnitude yet this winter 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 HRRR has shown for several runs now a jack zone very close by. 3-4" per hour rates! I'm starting to get a bit excited now. Light rains have become a downpour. Sounds like a mid-summer thundershower(w/o the thunder) on the roof. Man, if this could only changeover with this precip rate. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Looks like the 30/0z SR models have come into better agreement with the strength and track of the secondary SLP. They're mostly showing a low to mid-980's mb central pressure and a stalling point in E Lk Superior, then back down thru the Straights/Tip of the Mitt region. Both are about as good as I could ask for personally. A deeper low like some were flashing might've been just too much a good thing with wind speeds detrimental to the Lk Michigan contribution facet. Between the expected winds and the occasionally heavy rates, this should make for yet another enjoyable "mini-storm" like I received here on the 17th Here's a 44 hour loop off the NAM. Should be a pretty wild time after all this faux spring weather this week.. namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_fh10-54.gifBack in the Autumn, this is what we both had envisioned during the Winter. It's really unfortunate the cold air wasn't around this time. This system part of the LRC is on my calendar a couple more times this season, so hopefully it can deliver the goods from start to finish next time. BTW, the wind factor is really impressive with this beast. Wonder how low the baro will go?? There is a Flood Advisory issued for W MI peeps as quite the heavy precip is exploding as the SLP deepens over S MI. SLP is located right over DTX at the moment. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 HRRR has shown for several runs now a jack zone very close by. 3-4" per hour rates! I'm starting to get a bit excited now. Light rains have become a downpour. Sounds like a mid-summer thundershower(w/o the thunder) on the roof. Man, if this could only changeover with this precip rate.The radar is explosive! Very impressive...take some pics when the transition occurs. It's gonna get wild up there. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 00z Euro... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 The radar is explosive! Very impressive...take some pics when the transition occurs. It's gonna get wild up there.Still rain but the wind chimes just started chirping in the last couple minutes. If it is going to happen I think it will be really soon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 It tried really hard to transition about 20 minutes ago. I even had a light accumulation on top of the fallen leaves. Back to rain. I think thermals are just too borderline here. Someone to my north & west should do pretty well though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Spoke too soon. Hopefully this is the last transition. Virtually no wind at all right now with large dendrites. Whitening everything quickly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Moderate snow started falling about 20 min ago. Fresh coating on the ground already. Radar really blossoming to the east and rotating in. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Crazy how long that snow has been hanging on in the Dakotas.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 6Z Euro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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