TT-SEA Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 Wow, Tim can turn a romantic night with the wife into doldrums on here just like that. Must not have been a good date night....It was great! **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 It was great!My point stands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 Also worth noting that the EPS continues to weaken the anomaly signals later in the run like previous runs. In 2 weeks... it shows the cold more spread out and the block weakening. That is something it did not really do in February. It locked in and never changed. There is some variability already showing up this time. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 Jan 1969 is an interesting case study when looking at 500mb patterns and what the resultant lowland weather is. The 10th through 19th had a pattern that brought wet snow like what the ECMWF is showing in the 8 to 10 day period, and the 20th through 30th had very cold weather and lots of dry snow. The maps below are from those two periods and clearly show how different the 500mb pattern were. To me the day 9 and 10 ECMWF look much more like the cold map than the milder one. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 Consistency? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 Consistency?In terrain? Kind of an oxymoron... My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewnichols25 Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 GFS shows freezing temperatures extending well offshore in BC and Southeast Alaska with all of that frigid air spilling out over the ocean. I can see freezing spray becoming an issue along the Inside Passage shipping routes and even in Puget Sound with the colder GFS solutions. Something to watch for especially after the sinking of the crab boat in AK last week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 In terrain? Kind of an oxymoron...Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 gfs.PNG GFS shows freezing temperatures extending well offshore in BC and Southeast Alaska with all of that frigid air spilling out over the ocean. I can see freezing spray becoming an issue along the Inside Passage shipping routes and even in Puget Sound with the colder GFS solutions. Something to watch for especially after the sinking of the crab boat in AK last week. Looks like a picked a bad week to go parasailing.. 1 My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 Consistency? Sort of... it can consistently show the pattern changing or evolving. That still counts as consistency. The coldest period on the EPS is around 1/13-17. Now that even farther out is coming into view... it has been showing moderation after the 17th. We will see if it holds. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 Sort of... it can consistently show the pattern changing or evolving. That still counts as consistency. The coldest period on the EPS is around 1/13-17. Now that farther out is coming into view... it has been showing moderation after the 17th.Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 EPS clearly shows an eastward shift at the 500mb level later in the run... this might not end up being like last February in terms of duration. Although I do remember a couple false warm-ups on the EPS last February now that I think about it more. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 Definitely a good idea to iron out the end of a pattern that’s still over a week away. 5 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 Definitely a good idea to iron out the end of a pattern that’s still over a week away.Date night was not as good as said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 Definitely a good idea to iron out the end of a pattern that’s still over a week away. Definitely! It does feel like the GFS has suddenly become the wildly inconsistent one... and the EPS is back to being a more steady guide. But who knows at this point. The 00Z GFS was complete insanity. The EPS looks like its previous runs. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 EPS clearly shows an eastward shift at the 500mb level later in the run... this might not end up being like last February in terms of duration. Although I do remember a couple false warm-ups on the EPS last February now that I think about it more. That doesn't matter. Its 300+ hours away. Resolution decreases once you get to the 300+ hour window so I wouldn't buy into what its showing at 360 hours haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 Jan 1969 is an interesting case study when looking at 500mb patterns and what the resultant lowland weather is. The 10th through 19th had a pattern that brought wet snow like what the ECMWF is showing in the 8 to 10 day period, and the 20th through 30th had very cold weather and lots of dry snow. The maps below are from those two periods and clearly show how different the 500mb pattern were. To me the day 9 and 10 ECMWF look much more like the cold map than the milder one.Fun fact. Shawnigan lake had 14 consecutive day’s and 21 of the last 24 days see measurable snowfall in January 69 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 My point stands.This year its the GFS locking into the cold pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 That doesn't matter. Its 300+ hours away. Resolution decreases once you get to the 300+ hour window so I wouldn't buy into what its showing at 360 hours haha. Not always... it locked in on the cold period coming up as soon as it came into view at 15 days out and has not really wavered much in terms of strength or configuration. It just "pulsates" as Dewey mentioned. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 Also worth noting that the EPS continues to weaken the anomaly signals later in the run like previous runs. In 2 weeks... it shows the cold more spread out and the block weakening. That is something it did not really do in February. It locked in and never changed. There is some variability already showing up this time. You’ve been a d*ckwad lately. 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 Fun fact. Shawnigan lake had 14 consecutive day’s and 21 of the last 24 days see measurable snowfall in January 69 EUG had 3 ft in a 72 hr period from the 25-28. Would have put this Feb's event to shame. 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 Too early to be declaring any winners but the GFS has clearly been in the lead with its excellent consistency and the prediction of the increasing heights over Alaska. The Euro is entirely on board now at least at the 500mb level. The surface level stuff isn't impressive on the euro, but I think that will eventually come around. Cold air is up there and the 500mb pattern is approaching textbook stuff for cold and snow here. That cold air doesn't have anywhere else it can really go. The GFS is going way overboard with all the low level cold and snow but I feel pretty good for prolonged chances for significant lowland cold/snow. I'm just not expecting widespread 12-24 inches of snow from Bellingham to Redding like the 00z GFS. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 You’ve been a d*ckwad lately. You have not even been here. Don't start with the personal crap again. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 Too early to be declaring any winners but the GFS has clearly been in the lead with its excellent consistency and the prediction of the increasing heights over Alaska. The Euro is entirely on board now at least at the 500mb level. The surface level stuff isn't impressive on the euro, but I think that will eventually come around. Cold air is up there and the 500mb pattern is approaching textbook stuff for cold and snow here. That cold air doesn't have anywhere else it can really go. The GFS is going way overboard with all the low level cold and snow but I feel pretty good for prolonged chances for significant lowland cold/snow. I'm just not expecting widespread 12-24 inches of snow from Bellingham to Redding like the 00z GFS. Most people on here are going to see accumulating snow in the next couple weeks at some point. Its almost guaranteed given the pattern. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 Too early to be declaring any winners but the GFS has clearly been in the lead with its excellent consistency and the prediction of the increasing heights over Alaska. The Euro is entirely on board now at least at the 500mb level. The surface level stuff isn't impressive on the euro, but I think that will eventually come around. Cold air is up there and the 500mb pattern is approaching textbook stuff for cold and snow here. That cold air doesn't have anywhere else it can really go. The GFS is going way overboard with all the low level cold and snow but I feel pretty good for prolonged chances for significant lowland cold/snow. I'm just not expecting widespread 12-24 inches of snow from Bellingham to Redding like the 00z GFS. And not to overstate things, but the models intensifying an offshore winds scenario is a good trend for PDX-south. 2 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 Has PDX been below 40 this decade? My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 The 500mb pattern on the EURO improved dramatically and did so at Day 6-7. Should we continue this for two more days that moves timing up to Day 5 where the block is ready to deliver arctic air by Day 7. With 500mb heights increasing to 550dm over Anchorage that is a great indicator of an arctic pattern. Let's just keep this going. 6z GFS in 1 hours 2 minutes 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 The 500mb pattern on the EURO improved dramatically and did so at Day 6-7. Should we continue this for two more days that moves timing up to Day 5 where the block is ready to deliver arctic air by Day 7. With 500mb heights increasing to 550dm over Anchorage that is a great indicator of an arctic pattern. Let's just keep this going. 6z GFS in 1 hours 2 minutes Night shift? 2 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 Night shift? Can I join in today? I've got some AP stuff I have to finish anyways so I'll be up for a while.... 3 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 Can I join in today? I've got some AP stuff I have to finish anyways so I'll be up for a while.... No invitation necessary! **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 Night shift?Yeah. Here lately with my knee I have to take an Oxy to have any hope of sleeping and then I'm in bed knocked out most the day then it wears off and not able to get out of bed until late afternoon, so I'm up a lot now 1-3 AM. I don't want to be necessarily, but can't control that. C'MON!!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 Yeah. Here lately with my knee I have to take an Oxy to have any hope of sleeping and then I'm in bed knocked out most the day then it wears off and not able to get out of bed until late afternoon, so I'm up a lot now 1-3 AM. I don't want to be necessarily, but can't control that. C'MON!!!!Dude. What is wrong with your knee. Sounds like it’s ruining your life. Can you get a replacement? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 Yeah. Here lately with my knee I have to take an Oxy to have any hope of sleeping and then I'm in bed knocked out most the day then it wears off and not able to get out of bed until late afternoon, so I'm up a lot now 1-3 AM. I don't want to be necessarily, but can't control that. C'MON!!!! Hope it keeps healing well! My brain surgery went smooth but my head still hurts sometimes so I'm thinking good thoughts for you. 2 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 Hope it keeps healing well! My brain surgery went smooth but my head still hurts sometimes so I'm thinking good thoughts for you.Praying for you and dj 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 This year its the GFS locking into the cold pattern.Very debatable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 Dude. What is wrong with your knee. Sounds like it’s ruining your life. Can you get a replacement?My mom recently had total knee replacement couple weeks ago and in the process of recovering. Even so, it seems like she is so much better than before. It’s probably worth it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 My mom recently had total knee replacement couple weeks ago and in the process of recovering. Even so, it seems like she is so much better than before. It’s probably worth it.My mom went through that same thing 4 years ago and she is doing great. So much better now. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 I wish Google maps had a county lines layer.I totally agree! At least add an option to enable it. 2 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runninthruda206 Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 Wow my mom had a partial knee replacement right before thanksgiving. Crazy coincidence 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 5, 2020 Report Share Posted January 5, 2020 We’ve lost the EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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