TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 12Z ICON shows potential for Portland late tomorrow. Heavy precip rates... someone down there could get some heavy snow. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 00z WRF-GFS 1.33km Hi ResSnowfall Totals through 4 PM Tuesday 3-5" PDX metro. NICE! Then the bigger storm Wednesday-Thursday! I guess this will be a good test for the WRF. I haven't seen it be a model I have a lot of confidence on. Would be nice if it performs. This will be very interesting when this is all over to compare all the models and see if we can get a better feel for that they can or can't do well. I'm sure there are secret government NWS people down in a basement working on it now. Expect leaks soon. ICON and GEM will win the day. Wouldn't that be something. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 12Z ICON did shift west with the low later in the week. Pretty much takes away the snow it showed for Seattle on Thursday on the 00Z run. 06Z GFS showed a better set up... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 12Z ICON did shift west with the low later in the week. Pretty much takes away the snow it showed for Seattle on Thursday on the 00Z run. 06Z GFS showed a better set up... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 12Z GFS shows the c-zone becoming active before 4 p.m. today... a little earlier than the few runs. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 4-7 p.m. this evening per GFS: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 7-10 p.m. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 10 p.m. through 1 a.m. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Last 3 GFS runs now show this low in about the same position south of PDX. The WRF seemed to think this track would produce snow in PDX. Still think it is more likely to be snow in the air than anything that accumulates but it is something to watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Total snow through 4 a.m. tomorrow... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Last 3 GFS runs now show this low in about the same position south of PDX. The WRF seemed to think this track would produce snow in PDX. Still think it is more likely to be snow in the air than anything that accumulates but it is something to watch. Yeah, I think we will at least get to see some wet flakes fall at the peak. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 The drive between here and Snoqualmie Pass on I-90 looks juuuuuust a bit snowy this morning... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Trying to add up the numbers... I think Snoqualmie Summit might be over 4 feet of snow since Thursday.Is it fair to say no tumbleweeds this summer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 NWS has upped the forecast amounts and advanced the transition time to snow for my location. Now just a matter of hours. 2 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Is it fair to say no tumbleweeds this summer? It's always fair to say that about the pass. And never fair to say it about the Columbia Basin. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Is it fair to say no tumbleweeds this summer?Yup, we are good now. It can stop raining from now to October and we would be just fine. Good to go. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Midweek low looks weaker so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Midweek low looks weaker so far. Might be a good scenario for Portland. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Classic low position for a Portland snowstorm. The location and strength of the low will obviously keep changing each run though. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 The whole WV gets a nice snowstorm with the midweek low. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Yeah that is about the perfect track for PDX on the 12z GFS. Still 84 hrs out thuogh.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 12z GFS clearly shows the CZ sliding south down the Sound during the evening and night. Euro is really the only one that keeps it north. Would be nice for the 12z to change that. WRF shows it from Olympia eastward around midnight. ECMWF shows it will be from Everett/Lynnwood eastward at that time. Ridiculous difference for something that will happen in about 12 hours. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Most recent WRF continues to refuse to show snow here while every other model (GFS, Euro, HRRR, NAM) now show at least an inch. If I hadn't seen the WRF fail I would be more worried, but still a little unsettling. 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Yeah that is about the perfect track for PDX on the 12z GFS. Still 84 hrs out thuogh.. 12Z GFS continued a trend started by the 00Z run to weaken that low and bring it in much farther south. Takes away the big snow event that some previous runs and the 00Z ECMWF showed for the Seattle and Vancouver BC areas at that time. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 12Z GFS continued a trend started by the 00Z run to weaken that low and bring it in much farther south. Takes away the big snow event that some previous runs and the ECMWF showed for the Seattle and Vancouver BC areas at that time. You have the snow map for Oregon during that Wednesday night/Thursday storm? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Messy transition day on Friday... could be some freezing rain. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 You have the snow map for Oregon during that Wednesday night/Thursday storm? Total snow from Wednesday morning through Friday morning... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Solid 3-5 inches for the WV, not bad. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Messy transition day on Friday... could be some freezing rain. Classic overrunning. My experience has been that the models are too fast to scour out the cold... so it may end up being all snow for that system. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Total snow from Wednesday morning through Friday morning... That would be nice. 39 here currently. Temp rose 5 degrees since midnight. What an arctic blast! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 That would be nice. 39 here currently. Temp rose 5 degrees since midnight. What an arctic blast! ... You knew it was going to warm up a bit this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 The coldest point of this run is colder than last night's 00Z too. 516 thickness line gets pretty close to PDX late Tuesday into Wednesday. A better intrusion of cold sets us up well for things being more suppressed later in the week, which bodes well for snow chances. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 ... You knew it was going to warm up a bit this morning. Today was never forecast to be anywhere near arctic, he knows that. Gusty SW winds and 44 here currently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Wish this massive dump of rain I’m currently getting was snow. 37 degrees. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 ... You knew it was going to warm up a bit this morning. Just getting impatient . If models are correct it should drop to freezing by around sunset. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Raining good in Tacoma this morning. 0.21" so far to put us at 4.03" for January. We had 3.95" for all of January last year what an improvement. This is also day 13 in a row with rainfall. Been very wet since the AR in mid December. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Wish this massive dump of rain I’m currently getting was snow. 37 degrees.12Z says we are screwed. I'm guessing the NWS will let the watch expire and turn it into an advisory for all areas except where the warning is now in effect. I'm thinking less than 2" for my area anyway. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Mt. Hood snowpack now up to 66% of normal. A week ago it was around 20%. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Total snow through tomorrow afternoon per the WRF... this has been trending towards less snow for the last few runs. Here was the 00Z run for comparison... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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