TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Ugh... Bellingham missed the memo about the +3 degree bias.That is true! Good point. So that actually makes me think it is too slow. No joke. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Literally no one has said it is.Hawks said the ECMWF was too slow. And I actually think he was right. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Gusty with wet snow, it's building up to do something! Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Everett down to 34 without any precip fallingI do believe it is about to start snowing here. 2 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 I think BFI to Issaquah could get in on the action late this evening. I am basing that specifically on the ECMWF.You and the Euro has spoken so it shall be. Good news for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Really coming down now! Temp down to 34. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Gusty westerly winds here now. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeBC Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 The arctic front is stalling in the west of Chilliwack. It should be able to move faster once the system moves out of the Fraser Valley. There is a bunch of precipitation on the way from Naniamo, BC. The front and the moist airmass might collide in the lower mainland and Whatcom in a couple of hours 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 If by "duke it out" you mean more moisture, I agree! As it is now, I am seeing the sky brighten to the west, and even as I am typing this I see a small patch of blue sky. I mean an westward-heading arctic front colliding with an eastward-heading onshore wind. All that air has to go someplace, and that someplace is up. In other words, lift. Lift air and it expands, expand air and it cools and condenses moisture. Instant snowstorm. At least two short-range, high-res models are now forecasting this. Another model is saying this should happen but Whatcom will get mostly skunked by the action, so nothing's a sure thing. Don't get too worked up about the blue holes. That the current round of precip would fizzle out was predicted by those models as well. Any convergence-based activity should start sometime around 7 or 8 pm, if the models verify. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 You and the Euro has spoken so it shall be. Good news for me.I have seen all the models be wrong and way more snow than anyone thought. Could happen. It would just have to be a surprise and sometimes nature does that. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Physics generally suggest models will be a bit slow with low level cold air advection. I doubt they will ever be able to account for every single boundary layer nuance on a micro level, and those nuances generally slow its progression rather than accelerate it. This of course is most applicable in continental situations. Of course the opposite is the case with low level cold situations when it’s well entrenched. Just food for thought for the newbs and Josh. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Converging Convergence Zones! I do believe it is about to start snowing here in South Everett. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Just had a fun 5 minute moderate snow shower roll through, top of my truck got whiteish. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Moisture building up a notch offshore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 46F with some light rain. Got up to 49F, barely keeping it below 50F so that's nice. Assuming every day hits 40F for the rest of the month, it will be the first time that Dec-Jan has failed to record a high temp below 40F since Dec-Jan 33-34. That one also had a bush league cold wave at the end of Nov with a couple of sub-40 highs. If we don't have more than the 1 we had on Nov 30, then this will undisputedly be the worst cold season since I have lived in Oregon and one of EUG's worst cold seasons of all time. I refuse to call it winter now. It's just fallspring here most years. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fubario Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 I asked him if he had reached wet roads yet... or if there was still snow on the road. That was his response. He was just answering my question. He loves snow and thinks weather forums are an absolute goofy waste of time. He is still my son though. Well, we do want our kids to be better than us, right? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 I mean an westward-heading arctic front colliding with an eastward-heading onshore wind. All that air has to go someplace, and that someplace is up. In other words, lift. Lift air and it expands, expand air and it cools and condenses moisture. Instant snowstorm. At least two short-range, high-res models are now forecasting this. Another model is saying this should happen but Whatcom will get mostly skunked by the action, so nothing's a sure thing. Don't get too worked up about the blue holes. That the current round of precip would fizzle out was predicted by those models as well. Any convergence-based activity should start sometime around 7 or 8 pm, if the models verify.Ok, sounds good, I've been working today so I haven't really paid attention to the models, just checking Wunderground and looking out the window periodically... Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Converging Convergence Zones! I do believe it is about to start snowing here in South Everett. WUNIDS_map (1).gif If the ECMWF has a handle on the situation... then the current c-zone north of Seattle will slip south a little and then lift north later this afternoon and then merge with the northern band and that sink south down to about I-90 late tonight. Then that band will fade another one band will form up around Everett and that one will fade by morning and light snow will be coming up from the SW into King County at that time. ECMWF showed that happening. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 39* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Now 33 and ground turning white. 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 39*Sun going down soon. Now we need moisture 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Sun going down soon. Now we need moistureIt was so hot today... glad the sun is finally going down. Now we have a chance. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Been a drizzle storm here for the last hour or so. Sitting at 33 right now. Looks like some more action is coming soon though. Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runninthruda206 Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Nothing here yet - udist Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 White goodness! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Here are the next 3 hours based on the WRF... Precip is now totally done from Seattle northward until Wednesday night. Sorry to the folks up there... WRF has spoken. Precip will end in the next minute or so. The WRF is a complete joke with snow. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Bellingham is down to 39! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just using precip map... here is what the ECMWF thinks will happen in the next 3 hours. Could it be more wrong? Never trust the ECMWF. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just using precip map... here is what the ECMWF thinks will happen in the next 3 hours. Could it be more wrong? Never trust the ECMWF. Can you please post the 18 Z total snow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just using precip map... here is what the ECMWF thinks will happen in the next 3 hours. Could it be more wrong? Never trust the ECMWF. That's extraordinary. Couldn't draw the radar any better to match up. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Can you please post the 18 Z total snow? 24-hour snow total through tomorrow morning... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 CZ right over me but precip just isn’t heavy enough right now Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Total snow from Monday morning through Tuesday morning. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 24-hour snow total through tomorrow morning... Does it show that snow around North Seattle falling in the next couple hours or later this evening? Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 24-hour snow total through tomorrow morning... Shows a decent amount of snow here. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Does it show that snow around North Seattle falling in the next couple hours or later this evening? Looks like most of it comes late this evening and little more before dawn. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Down to 32. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Looks like most of it comes late this evening and little more before dawn.Excellent. Good to have it wait till temperatures fall enough to make it count. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 For those tracking the Thursday storm... the 18Z ECMWF goes out to 90 hours on the surface maps and the low is a little farther north on the 18Z run at that time compared to the 12Z run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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