bainbridgekid Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 FWIW... the 12Z GEM is much warmer for next week as well compared to its 00Z run. Sometimes that is an indication of which way the other models will trend.GEM also much further South with the firehose Friday/Saturday. Would be major flooding in WA, but it's a big outlier on that. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 12Z GFS ensemble mean for the 11-16 day period... significant shift east with the center of the cold air compared to the 00Z run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 GFS ensembles continue to look good. Do they? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 GEM also much further South with the firehose Friday/Saturday. Would be major flooding in WA, but it's a big outlier on that. The GEM really does struggle with the placement of AR events. Hoping the GFS is leading the way... its been very consistent with the focus being in SW BC. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Do they? Good probably just means generally wet. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Do they?No earth shattering changes from previous runs, which have all been decent. Long range seems to be trending cooler overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 12Z GFS ensemble mean for the 11-16 day period... significant shift east with the center of the cold air compared to the 00Z run. I hope we have a soggy and wet spring. We are due for that at least. Damp, chilly, and drizzly weather through about June 4th is looking pretty likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Conflicting reports! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Well if there's one thing I know for sure it's that the wildly varying GFS ensembles for the 11-16 day period have finally nailed down the solution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Well if there's one thing I know for sure it's that the wildly varying GFS ensembles for the 11-16 day period have finally nailed down the solution.Just looking at trends... since we have possible retrogression in 2 weeks per the EPS. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Looks like the PDX radar may have just gone down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just a touch of snow on top of Mt Si this morning... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just looking at trends... since we have possible retrogression in 2 weeks per the EPS. I don’t trust the gfs anymore especially after 5 days lol. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Sunniest weather I’ve seen in awhile. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Still gray as can be up here. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 I don’t trust the gfs anymore especially after 5 days lol.Again... it did better with the big picture than the ECMWF last time and much farther out. It was just bad on the details. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Still gray as can be up here.Price you pay for all your snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 I don’t trust the gfs anymore especially after 5 days lol.It nailed the overall pattern from well over a week out. The details just ended up screwing everyone South of Seattle. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 I hope we have a soggy and wet spring. We are due for that at least. Damp, chilly, and drizzly weather through about June 4th is looking pretty likely. You mean July 4th. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 I don’t trust the gfs anymore especially after 5 days lol.Depends on what you're really looking for here on how trustworthy the GFS is. In an overall pattern change or sustain, the GFS is very good. In terms of details like how temperatures and precipitation will play out, it's still very behind the Euro. You don't look for a lot of details beyond 5 days anyway. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 I’m still not buying into cold stuff for this weekend. With less than a week left, seems like typical run of the mill chilly weather that’s capable of producing 500’ snow levels. Longer than that, it’s questionable at best since there has not been any consistency at all, even the EPS.Not buying the hype anyone is trying to sell. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Feels like May outside Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 I ended up with around 36” of total snowfall for last February/March. Started February 3rd and ended March 12th. Solid snow cover from February 3rd until March 16th.This year I’m at 12” so far.You have some catching up to do eh? February is looking to be another wonderful bounty. A little SUPER BOWL SNOW BOWL will get us started toward the goal of exceeding the 36" 2019 season total. . I am really liking the trajectory of it will stiff northwesterlies at 850mB that shall provide for a lovely double CZ zone with you taking part in the Georgia straight effect and Everett - Shoreline eastward taking part in the PSCZ. // CHeers@!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 12Z ECMWF... total snow through Monday morning. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Wow... the 12Z ECMWF is way less amplified for early next week. Cut-off bias was on display yesterday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Feels like May outsideCurrently 47 at SEA with rain on the way later. I hope we have a lot of weather like that this May! Default for May lately seems to be 70-75 and sunny. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Yeah. Unfortunately hints the next couple weeks could have a major cooling trend were greatly exaggerated. Phil says wait until Mid-month. Most of us say wait until next winter. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Currently 47 at SEA with rain on the way later. I hope we have a lot of weather like that this May! Default for May lately seems to be 70-75 and sunny. Perhaps more like March. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 12Z GFS is much warmer in the long range compared to the 00Z run. Hype might have been premature. No Hype just Hope 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 12Z ECMWF is not even in the ballpark at day 10... warm where it should be cold and vice versa. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Sunniest weather I’ve seen in awhile.Heading down to Redondo beach for my bit of exercise! Lovely out46* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Yeah. Unfortunately hints the next couple weeks could have a major cooling trend were greatly exaggerated. Phil says wait until Mid-month. Most of us say wait until next winter. Who besides Jim has been hyping this up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Currently 47 at SEA with rain on the way later. I hope we have a lot of weather like that this May!Default for May lately seems to be 70-75 and sunny.https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tórshavn#Climate I feel like Torshavn in the Faroe Islands would be an ideal climate for you. The sun shines only 20% of the time on average year-round, 275 days of drizzle per year, average summer high of 55, average winter high 42. Sounds like you’d be in paradise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tórshavn#ClimateI feel like Torshavn in the Faroe Islands would be an ideal climate for you. The sun shines only 20% of the time on average year-round, 275 days of drizzle per year, average summer high of 55, average winter high 42. Sounds like you’d be in paradise. Great post! I’m sure I could inaccurately portray your preferences too if I felt up to it. I think you have been complaining more than anyone about the recent stretch of warm and bone dry late Springs. Something approaching normal would be nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 I think someone’s been feeling invincible since their resurrection. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 The Daily Fuzz. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 I see 'the daily fuzz' has turned into 'The Daily Fuzz' with capitalization and a period to boot. Certainly matches the prestige of the image.Absolutely!! I had to class it up a little. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 12Z EPS at day 10... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 12Z EPS at day 13... considerably warmer overall compared to the 00Z run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Rain for the next 7 days. Usual PNW weather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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