March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

43F with showers. Got down to 41F.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty moist 12z GFS run. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Was nice to see snow falling this morning. 

[Omegaraptor]

Potential looks to be growing for some real wet weather to close off the month.

[TT-SEA]

Potential looks to be growing for some real wet weather to close off the month.

 

 

Make sense.

[Jesse]

Andrew let's play a game. Ensembles looking ______ed.

[Jesse]

Andrew let's play a game. Ensembles looking ______ed.

 

Stumped? Ok fine, I will let you buy ONE vowel.

[Jesse]

Models seem to be really struggling with the pattern progression in the 29th-31st time frame. The 12z Euro isn't quite as crappy as the 00Z but still not as good as some of the better/wetter runs.

[Jesse]

Yeah throw this Euro run in the trash. Shows warm partly sunny SW flow here with our AR way up in Canada. Hopefully the operational eventually comes around to what the EPS has been advertising.

[Jesse]

Looks like the trough finally limps in around day 10 but there a lot of things I just don't like about that pattern compared to the last few GFS runs and the most recent EPS.

[Jesse]

45 currently with a rain shower here. Low hit 41. Would be fun to see some thunder later today. I think chances are a little better than yesterday even.

[El_Nina]

Yeah throw this Euro run in the trash. Shows warm partly sunny SW flow here with our AR way up in Canada. Hopefully the operational eventually comes around to what the EPS has been advertising.

More warm and dry? Throw it in the trash.

[Omegaraptor]

AR will target Portland metro until 96 hours and then trend north to Seattle.

[Jesse]

More warm and dry? Throw it in the trash.

It’s still a decently cool and moist run. It just sort of botches a pattern which holds the potential to bring us a pretty beneficial rainfall bonanza by holding everything up to our north and west. Mainly due to slight differences in the position of the block offshore.

 

I’ve seen this sort of thing in the spring before, and it will often end up with us sitting under relatively high heights with mild SW flow and partly sunny conditions for a few days while an AR dumps on the northern half of Vancouver Island.

[Phil]

It’s still a decently cool and moist run. It just sort of botches a pattern which holds the potential to bring us a pretty beneficial rainfall bonanza by holding everything up to our north and west. Mainly due to slight differences in the position of the block offshore.

 

I’ve seen this sort of thing in the spring before, and it will often end up with us sitting under relatively high heights with mild SW flow and partly sunny conditions for a few days while an AR dumps on the northern half of Vancouver Island.

I think it’s adjusting the wavetrain in a way that’ll favor a cooler/wetter solution if it continues.

 

PV breakdown with IO/Indo-Pacific forcing of a lower frequency variety has climatologically favored western troughing in late March/April and a ULL-type pattern in late April/May based on NCEP-NCAR reanalysis.

[Phil]

Been too busy distance learning and running virus plots in python to follow the subseasonal pattern progression closely but it looks more favorable to me now than it did several weeks ago, with the strong winter vortex/niño forcing regimen beginning to unbraid itself.

 

Of course, there’s a STJ/AAM belts still reminiscent of +ENSO but there are interesting changes afoot too.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like a nice spring day in Seattle.

[Jesse]

Looks like a nice spring day in Seattle.

Nice one here too. Pouring rain and 44 degrees.

[Front Ranger]

Nice one here too. Pouring rain and 44 degrees.

 

 

I think I've seen like an hour of rain since early October.

[Jesse]

PDX has picked up .11” in the last hour.

[El_Nina]

It’s still a decently cool and moist run. It just sort of botches a pattern which holds the potential to bring us a pretty beneficial rainfall bonanza by holding everything up to our north and west. Mainly due to slight differences in the position of the block offshore.

I’ve seen this sort of thing in the spring before, and it will often end up with us sitting under relatively high heights with mild SW flow and partly sunny conditions for a few days while an AR dumps on the northern half of Vancouver Island.

Still cool and moist- that's good. Would need 1.97" more rain to reach 50% of normal this month.

After having such a dry February and March hopefully we can get a decently wet April.

[Deweydog]

Been too busy distance learning and running virus plots in python to follow the subseasonal pattern progression closely but it looks more favorable to me now than it did several weeks ago, with the strong winter vortex/niño forcing regimen beginning to unbraid itself.

 

Of course, there’s a STJ/AAM belts still reminiscent of +ENSO but there are interesting changes afoot too.

Exceptional times require exceptional clarity...

 

It means a cold spring, folks.

[Jesse]

Still cool and moist- that's good. Would need 1.97" more rain to reach 50% of normal this month.

After having such a dry February and March hopefully we can get a decently wet April.

At face value the 12z Euro showed 1.8” at PDX over the next ten days. Probably a lot more in your area.

 

Then again the latest GFS showed over 3” for PDX in the same time period.

[El_Nina]

At face value the 12z Euro showed 1.8” at PDX over the next ten days. Probably a lot more in your area.

Then again the latest GFS showed over 3” for PDX in the same time period.

That would be great. Could even surpass 50% pretty easily if it works out.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS 10-15 day mean...

 

[Jesse]

12z EPS still looks better with the pattern in the 6-10 day range than the operational, but definitely backed off a bit from the 00Z run.

[Jesse]

Now the 18Z is out and showing about a third of the precip the 12Z run did, through hour 240. 

[The Swamp]

12Z EPS 10-15 day mean...

 

Sign me up for a 4CH

[Omegaraptor]

Pretty nice burst of rain coming through with wind.

 

EDIT: It's hailing. Tiny stones but it's coming down good.

[BLI snowman]

First thunder of the year for me.

[Jesse]

Decent hail shower and a distant rumble of thunder here.

 

High of only 48 today.

[Phil]

12z EPS still looks better with the pattern in the 6-10 day range than the operational, but definitely backed off a bit from the 00Z run.

Definitely looks more Tim/virus friendly overall.

 

Lots of SPREAD in the ensemble, though!

[TT-SEA]

Definitely looks more Tim/virus friendly overall.

 

Lots of SPREAD in the ensemble, though!

 

 

Clever.  

 

If its sunny... all people WA immediately run out and have sex with each other in the street and on the beach.   Sunshine kills.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Only hit 40 up here today. Snowing and 33 now. 

 

[Timmy Supercell]

What this afternoon has looked like here.

 

https://imgur.com/a/lbH71l5

 

 

[Jesse]

Definitely looks more Tim/virus friendly overall.

Lots of SPREAD in the ensemble, though!

How dynamic did that final warming end up being?

[Timmy Supercell]

Only hit 40 up here today. Snowing and 33 now. 

 

 

High only 40 here too, about 34 now. Nothing sticking to roads so far here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Moderate snow still falling. Always nice to see accumulating snow on March 24!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12Z EPS 10-15 day mean...

 

Long range looks nice.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 3.05" of precip on the month. Average to this point is 6.97". Wetter than last March at least.