March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Agreed, a couple rainy days during the weekday and a sunny weekend is what I prefer this time of the year.

 

Probably won't work out that way... there was no EPS support. 

[Jesse]

[TacomaWaWx]

Or it could be a flip to just normal. Or a flip to a little wetter overall but still drier than normal. Or a flip to wetter in some areas but still dry for others.

 

There seems to be kind of a myth perpetuated here that the region moves through several week cycles of much wetter than normal to much drier than normal then back again, and it is of course all centered around how much rain western Washington gets compared to average. Although it would make things really simple to predict, weather doesn't actually work that way.

I was more talking about western WA and how we’ve flipped from dry to wet to dry this cold season. I understand that it doesn’t necessarily alternate between anomalous wet and dry here on a regular basis...it just has here in western WA this year which makes me think we will have some decent soaking times coming later this month and the next one.

[mtep]

Foothills got a nice dusting of snow this morning

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hey Jesse, check out those ensembles. 

[Jesse]

Hey Jesse, check out those ensembles.

 

I see you have already seen them, Andrew. Warm members EVAPORATING.

[Omegaraptor]

March is currently at 4 out of 22 days with significant rainfall (0.04” or higher) at PDX. Today is currently at 0.03” so a stray shower making it to PDX should do the job. Coast range seems pretty hungry though.

 

Probably will actually end up with even fewer rainy days than last March.

[El_Nina]

There we go. A nice wet and cool 0.20" so far today.

[Jesse]

12z Euro swung back to way drier than the 00Z run. Following the models can be pretty annoying when they are like this. Part of me already knows the writing is on the wall for this upcoming wet period not being very impressive down here when all is said and done, though.

[Jesse]

Luckily the 12z EPS has much lower heights over us than the operational from hour 168 onward.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS 10-15 day mean:

 

[Blizzard777]

47*

.13 precipitation 

1.48 mtd 

That’s all I got!   
 

All the time in the world and I still don’t want to fold the laundry! 

[Jesse]

Just had a couple bands of moderate to heavy rain move through here with some gusty winds and hail mixed in. Temp dropped from 51 to 45 pretty quickly. Fun spring stuff.

[Jesse]

47*

.13 precipitation 

1.48 mtd 

That’s all I got!   

 

All the time in the world and I still don’t want to fold the laundry! 

 

You're good dude. Just post here all day like the rest of us.

[Jesse]

Lots of cold showers moving onshore now. Cascades could do well for snow tonight.

[TacomaWaWx]

Been getting some heavy rain/hail showers on and off today...looks like some decent cells have developed NE of the Olympics and some moving in from the SW from the coast into the south sound.

[TacomaWaWx]

Temp has been all over the place this afternoon too during heavy showers was 50 at 1pm currently 41 and moderate rain.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

According to my wife's most recent Facebook post it is snowing at our house right now. 

[Jesse]

According to my wife's most recent Facebook post it is snowing at our house right now.

 

The ensembles predicted this if you would only just have looked.

[Jbolin]

Well , 

https://westseattleblog.com/2020/03/just-announced-west-seattle-bridge-closing-because-of-deterioration/

[Jesse]

Well s**t, https://westseattleblog.com/2020/03/just-announced-west-seattle-bridge-closing-because-of-deterioration/

Could help with social distancing.

[Blizzard777]

Could help with social distancing.

 

Well s**t, 

 

https://westseattleblog.com/2020/03/just-announced-west-seattle-bridge-closing-because-of-deterioration/

Ouch!   That’s gonna hurt !

[Blizzard777]

Light hail and rain shower moved through dumping .09 in the gauge and drooping temp to 43* 

[Omegaraptor]

18z GFS focuses the jet into WA most of the time, rather than OR. CA almost completely dry after 84 hours.

[Jesse]

18z GFS focuses the jet into WA most of the time, rather than OR. CA almost completely dry after 84 hours.

 

Feels like this is the most likely outcome. Then as we head into our annual late April start to summer with months of torrid weather ahead we will be hearing about how we were due for it and it's just the natural progression of things since it was wet for a few weeks again in the North Cascade foothills.

[Blizzard777]

Love when the sun breaks happen during these types of days.  Make the storm clouds look more dramatic! 

[TT-SEA]

Feels like this is the most likely outcome. Then as we head into our annual late April start to summer with months of torrid weather ahead we will be hearing about how we were due for it since it was wet for a few weeks again in the North Cascade foothills.

No matter how much you complain about it... it usually works.

 

Not sure why... but it does.

[Deweydog]

VIRAL THUNDER!!!

[Omegaraptor]

 

Been a dry last 30 days from WA to northern CA.

[TT-SEA]

44616A6D-B660-478D-B46E-066166F1C2FB.png

 

Been a dry last 30 days from WA to northern CA.

Pattern flipped

[Omegaraptor]

Pattern flipped

WA is drier and SoCal is wetter. Oregon, NorCal, and eastern WA have been dry since early February.

[TT-SEA]

WA is drier and SoCal is wetter. Oregon, NorCal, and eastern WA have been dry since early February.

 

 

Yep... and Oregon seems to frequently miss out both ways.    Nature is cruel... which is painfully obvious lately.

[Jesse]

18z ensembles starting to converge on the idea of a ridgy pattern in the long range. After cutting back rainfall amounts down here more and more in the believable range.

 

Seen this movie before. F*ck.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Just had a rumble of thunder to the south (over Lake Whatcom).  Sky is looking dark but it looks like it is going to slide to the east of me.

[Jesse]

Just had a rumble of thunder to the south (over Lake Whatcom).  Sky is looking dark but it looks like it is going to slide to the east of me.

 

Nice. Everyone try to keep the weather reports coming. If we let the coronavirus thread surpass the March 2020 weather discussion thread by the end of the month then the virus WINS.

[snow_wizard]

Just had a quick quarter inch of graupel here.  Even the road turned white.  Currently 43 degrees.  That should set me up for a pretty chilly night.

 

No doubt this airmass is cold!  This setup in January would have delivered an Arctic outbreak in all likelihood.

[Phil]

FWIW..pretty big shift in the EPS today.

 

Stronger Greenland block, deeper western trough in the medium/long range. Could be a theme with the vortex breaking up (IO forcing doesn’t hurt either).

 

[Jesse]

FWIW..pretty big shift in the EPS today.

 

Stronger Greenland block, deeper western trough in the medium/long range. Could be a theme with the vortex breaking up (IO forcing doesn’t hurt either).

 

Plz God.

[TacomaWaWx]

Picked up 0.27” so far today and 1.36” for March.

[TT-SEA]

Plz God.

 

Its just timing... here is where it ends up.