March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Phil]

It’s not “just timing”. The warmth is delayed several days.

 

Wouldn’t shock me if that trend continues.

[TT-SEA]

It’s not “just timing”. The warmth is delayed several days.

 

Wouldn’t shock me if that trend continues.

Wouldn't shock me either. Also wouldn't shock me if it trends warmer in the long range.

[snow_wizard]

Currently 39 with some graupel still on the ground.  Been a cold March overall.

[TT-SEA]

It’s not “just timing”. The warmth is delayed several days.

 

Wouldn’t shock me if that trend continues.

 

Side note... even by day 12 the warmth is a little farther west on the 12Z EPS compared to the 00Z run.    

 

[jcmcgaffey]

No rain here yet today. Was really hoping for some as it has been a while and it would be nice to have some. The rain shadow should push up north as the low drops south so should get in on the action later tonight.

[Front Ranger]

NOTHING would shock me.

[GHweatherChris]

NOTHING would shock me.

Everything happens for a reason, no biggie.

[Deweydog]

Electricity can.

[Phil]

Side note... even by day 12 the warmth is a little farther west on the 12Z EPS compared to the 00Z run.

 

But it’s cooler before D12.

 

In other words, delayed several days. You’re just reframing what I already said in your own narrative.

[TT-SEA]

But it’s cooler before D12.

 

In other words, delayed several days. You’re just reframing what I already said in your own narrative.

I don't really care that much... did not look that different overall. No EPS run has showed it warm "several days" before day 12.

[El_Nina]

Side note... even by day 12 the warmth is a little farther west on the 12Z EPS compared to the 00Z run.    

 

Pretty cold around Hawaii to Alaska.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Side note... even by day 12 the warmth is a little farther west on the 12Z EPS compared to the 00Z run.

 

West Coast Finger of Warmth.

[El_Nina]

0.42" of rain today. A steady rain in the morning turned into off and on downpours in the afternoon.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Finally did get a pretty good downpour from the dark clouds earlier, and now its already down to 35.  With things still being pretty wet, it might be a bit icy in the morning up here.

[Jesse]

00z GFS looks much improved.

[ShawniganLake]

00z GFS looks much improved.

Bit of snow for puget sound.

[Omegaraptor]

Weird that the models are struggling so much with this upcoming pattern. Seems like fine details in Alaska make a major difference on the West Coast.

 

GFS operational has had somewhat of a cold/wet bias in the mid range this month, however. First with the mid-March event then with last weekend. We still have the ensembles and ECMWF ahead of us so let’s see what they say.

[Jesse]

Weird that the models are struggling so much with this upcoming pattern. Seems like fine details in Alaska make a major difference on the West Coast.

 

Hoping to see some major ensemble improvement. The EPS was certainly promising.

[Jesse]

Bit of snow for puget sound.

 

Shades of spring 2008.

[snow_wizard]

00z GFS looks much improved.

 

I was going to say...the difference between the operational GFS and GFS ensemble vs the 18z is pretty amazing.

[snow_wizard]

Shades of spring 2008.

 

Maybe this will be a cold year.  It appears the chances of a Nina developing are pretty decent.

 

As I've mentioned before the one thing I have yet to see here is a spring with frosts deep into the spring with numerous lows in the 30s into very late spring.  The type of patterns we are seeing right now could deliver that if they persist.

[Jesse]

Marked ensemble improvement.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Interesting surface low slowly rolling down the Island today. Pretty decent looking wintertime pattern:

 

[Timmy]

Marked ensemble improvement.

always improving but never getting better!

[Jesse]

always improving but never getting better!

The only known treatment is Phil’s ice age.

[BLI snowman]

06z cool wet. ensembles.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some wet snow falling this morning. 34. 

[AlTahoe]

It looks like winter is Cali is all but over on the long range models. Some areas in the Bay Area up to the Oregon border will smash their all time driest season's by a large margin. The benchmark for dry was during the 1975-1977 time frame. This will likely be the driest season in South Lake Tahoe for precip but not snowfall. That record was set during the 2014-2015 (AKA the year without a winter) 

It was a weird winter where the Desert Southwest was the big winner in precip outside of Washington. The only other kinda similar winter I can think of would be 2000-2001 

[GHweatherChris]

Rain/snow mix under this heavy shower over us here.

[TacomaWaWx]

Picked up 0.30” yesterday and another 0.02” this morning which is good for 1.41” for March. Looks like we should avoid another record dry March here like last year (1.44” in 2019).

[TacomaWaWx]

Warm season starts in a week (4/1-10/1).Hopefully next cold season ends up being better than this one...id give this one a C grade...maybe C-.

[El_Nina]

0.53" since the rain started yesterday. Brings March up to 2.07".

A normal March has 8.08".

[Jesse]

06z cool wet. ensembles.

This really says it all.

[GHweatherChris]

Quite a bit of snow mixing in now, pleasant little surprise.

[jcmcgaffey]

Picked up 0.30” yesterday and another 0.02” this morning which is good for 1.41” for March. Looks like we should avoid another record dry March here like last year (1.44” in 2019).

Up here just north of downtown seattle we are much drier this year than last year. Last year my area finished pretty close to average due to some convergences etc north of Seattle. March this year has been much drier and closer to your numbers.

[Jesse]

Worth noting that even though the 00z Euro took a bit of a dump in the 6-10 day range last night, the EPS was much improved.

[Omegaraptor]

Worth noting that even though the 00z Euro took a bit of a dump in the 6-10 day range last night, the EPS was much improved.

Check out 12z GFS.

 

Brings a 984mb low close to the Oregon Coast following what looks like a mini AR.

[Jesse]

Check out 12z GFS.

No.

[TT-SEA]

Snow covered Mt Si peaking out through the clouds...

 

[Jesse]

Check out 12z GFS.

 

 

Ok you twisted my arm it looks great.