TT-SEA Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 00Z GFS is sticking with late week troughing. We have seen the play before... the GFS usually wins in the big picture since the upgrade. The ECMWF comes around eventually and then beats the GFS with the fine details. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 50/40 day today. Models sure look dry...especially in the lowlands from Olympia north. Probably will be little to no rain the next week if the models verify. March did have more rainfall than 2018 and 2019 combined at 3.90” which is roughly an inch below average. Yeah looking really dry most of next week and beyond. We were about an inch and a half below average for March rainfall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 00z GFS looks cooler late next week. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 Today ended up reasonably chilly. 49/38 here with some afternoon rain and hail showers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 Here it comes. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 Even the cold, troughy solutions are pretty dry though. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 0.24" today makes it 0.60" since the 1st. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 GFS ensembles have trended warmer and drier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 GFS ensembles have trended warmer and drier.-3 April in doubt? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 -3 April in doubt? -3" April. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 Low of 33 this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 A frosty 28 this morning. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 Getting some light wet snow now. 36. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 Had some very, very wet snow almost at sea level a moment ago. 38F so obviously not sticking at all. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 Wet snow flakes here at 300’ in Tacoma in early April. I haven’t seen april snowflakes in almost 10 years. Currently 38. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 Snowing! All snow and 35 degrees. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 Coming down bigly now! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 Nice improvement on the 12Z GFS for later next week. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted April 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 Snowing! All snow and 35 degrees. Nice did any stick? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 Nice did any stick?Starting to stick on the deck. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 Turned to moderate snow again, 37. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 FWIW... the 12Z GEM is fully on board with ridging late next week as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 Nice improvement on the 12Z GFS for later next week. Still time for things to trend in a better direction. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 Still time for things to trend in a better direction. More ridging? I suppose but not counting on it. If we do have to endure a sunny, pleasant period instead of endless periods of cold rain/snow showers... I might have to reach out to your wife and let her know that not everyone cheers for miserable weather all the time. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 FWIW... the 12Z GEM is fully on board with ridging late next week as well.Hasn’t it been on board for awhile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 Hasn’t it been on board for awhile. Yes... hesitant to say it led the way because the entire thing might vanish eventually. But it has not backed down. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 Looks like a good time to take a break from model riding. Really nothing of interest coming up for the foreseeable future. Pretty pathetic than even reaching average precip has become such a huge struggle every month. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 12Z GFS ensembles are much warmer for next week as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 I saw some snow flakes here a bit ago. Quite windy too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 Looks like a good time to take a break from model riding. Really nothing of interest coming up for the foreseeable future. Pretty pathetic than even reaching average precip has become such a huge struggle every month. What is pathetic is that nature has been delivering anomalously wet weather to parts of the PNW at times... but when that happens its almost always in the same area and its been like that for the last 6 years. This current regime has been very persistent in that regard. Up here... we would love for it to change as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 Hoping things trend wetter mid month. The first half of the month is pretty much shot at this point. It’s been so long since we’ve seen a cool and wet last half of April through May that it doesn’t even seem possible, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 Looks like next week is sure to be a dud. Good thing we are scoring these negative departures this week. I don't think Jesse should worry. End of April will be prime time for grapuel. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 Looks like next week is sure to be a dud. Good thing we are scoring these negative departures this week. I don't think Jesse should worry. End of April will be prime time for grapuel. The region getting soaked with a couple slow moving ULLs would be nice. Getting into that time of year! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 I will say, even though this troughy pattern hasn’t been memorable at all at the surface compared to what was progged at points (at least for down here), I am very grateful it got mountain snowpack up to average right at the start of ablation season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 Following along with my last post, I see that the Northern Oregon Cascades are now 109% of average for the date. 106% for the Willamette basin, 113% for the south Washington Cascades. Southwestern Oregon basins are still around 82%, but the ULL dropping south early next week could give them a pretty substantial boost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 Rain/snow mix right now, I have now seen snow falling in 6 consecutive months, and winter was still shitty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 This is about the time that the ECMWF will totally flip to a cold/wet solution. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 FWIW... the 12Z GEM is fully on board with ridging late next week as well.Yeah, looks like upper 70s down here if it verifies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 Euro is about to double down on the warmth next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted April 3, 2020 Report Share Posted April 3, 2020 Euro is about to double down on the warmth next week.Finally!! 2 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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