April 2020 Weather discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

I wonder if Jesse saw the 00z GFS..

I did. Very nice run. Lots of too.

[Phil]

I did. Very nice run. Lots of too.

Finally starting to look more like the climatological EHEM forcing pattern for April with poleward -AAM propagation.

 

Models taking awhile to catch on, it appears.

[Omegaraptor]

That low around Day 10 has appeared on a couple runs now. Looks like it could lead to a great convective pattern.

[MossMan]

Finally starting to look more like the climatological EHEM forcing pattern for April with poleward -AAM propagation.

 

Models taking awhile to catch on, it appears.

Not the EMINEM pattern....

[TT-SEA]

Nice morning?

 

[ShawniganLake]

For late April it looks kind of breezy tomorrow

[TacomaWaWx]

Low of 47 again this morning...4th morning in a row with the same minimum temp. No rainfall overnight and currently mostly cloudy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice morning?

 

Nice shot of rain here this morning.

[TT-SEA]

Nice shot of rain here this morning.

Station near me is now at 57 inches of rain for the year. And many more rain events ahead in the next 10 days. All good up here.

 

More rain in Oregon is good too!

[ShawniganLake]

Station near me is now at 57 inches of rain for the year. And many more rain events ahead in the next 10 days. All good up here.

 

More rain in Oregon is good too!

How near is the station?

[TT-SEA]

How near is the station?

 

About 2 miles away.     

 

Probably a little less here but still well above normal for the year.   Obviously don't want it to just totally dry out now, but that is not going to be a problem based on the models.    There will likely be some rain each day for the next 10 days.

 

But its not a total washout either... today looks decent, tomorrow afternoon looks dry, and Sunday looks nice with the rain holding off until the late evening.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

That low around Day 10 has appeared on a couple runs now. Looks like it could lead to a great convective pattern.

I'm ready to see some thunder!

[Phil]

Station near me is now at 57 inches of rain for the year. And many more rain events ahead in the next 10 days. All good up here.

 

More rain in Oregon is good too!

Move to Death Valley. You’ll be in paradise there.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nice to have a storm overperform down here for once. 50% POP with less than a tenth QPF has resulted in 0.41" IMBY so far. Needed it PDQ, so it's a BFD to me.

 

Yes, these last 2 events have been great for the south valley. We still need more too as we were 10" below normal rainfall 3 days ago but should put a dent in the deficit over the next 10 days.

[TT-SEA]

Move to Death Valley. You’ll be in paradise there.

 

 

Always the extreme with you.  

[Jesse]

Warm end to the month has now disappeared on the GFS.

[Phil]

The EPS wants to bring subsidence back over the Maritime continent/E-IO during the first week of May. I have a very difficult time believing this will be anything more than a transient MJO wave..there’s a potent OHC max there, and the low pass signal has been decaying, so skepticism is warranted IMO.

 

However, if this verifies, we’d be looking at another “warm up after the cool down”, as Dewey says.

 

[Jesse]

The EPS wants to bring subsidence back over the Maritime continent/E-IO during the first week of May. I have a very difficult time believing this will be anything more than a transient MJO wave..there’s a potent OHC max there, and the low pass signal has been decaying, so skepticism is warranted IMO.

 

However, if this verifies, we’d be looking at another “warm up after the cool down”, as Dewey says.

 

 

Crazy I figured we were going to cool down forever. That eight year La Nina can't be far off right?

[Jesse]

Drizzly and 51 this morning. We picked up about .02" with some showers earlier this morning.

[El_Nina]

0.01" from some drizzle this morning.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The EPS wants to bring subsidence back over the Maritime continent/E-IO during the first week of May. I have a very difficult time believing this will be anything more than a transient MJO wave..there’s a potent OHC max there, and the low pass signal has been decaying, so skepticism is warranted IMO.

 

However, if this verifies, we’d be looking at another “warm up after the cool down”, as Dewey says.

 

Looking like a progressive pattern for the next month or so. I think most of May ends up seasonal. Then warmer than normal weather end of May into early June.

[Jesse]

Looking like a progressive pattern for the next month or so. I think most of May ends up seasonal. Then warmer than normal weather end of May into early June.

 

Slightly cooler than average May?

[Deweydog]

Slightly cooler than average May?

Cold spring FTW!!!

[Jesse]

Cold spring FTW!!!

Ain’t over yet.

 

As it stands, the mildish April is going to basically cancel out the chilly March. So May is going to be the tiebreaker.

[MossMan]

Hopefully we see an 80 degree day or two next month!

[Jesse]

Drizzle has thickened up here. Really makes the colors of the blooming flowers and newly green leaves pop.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Slightly cooler than average May?

Coolish start but warms up through the month. My guess is slightly warmer than normal.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Hopefully we see an 80 degree day or two next month!

Better yet, save it for Memorial Day weekend! I always go camping that weekend and my most memorable experiences have been when it's warm and sunny out.

[Jesse]

Coolish start but warms up through the month. My guess is slightly warmer than normal.

Yeah I don’t think I’ve ever seen you predict cooler than normal weather between April and October. Thought maybe you were bucking the trend!

[Jesse]

Hopefully we see an 80 degree day or two next month!

That would be climo down here. Our average first 80 is sometime in the the first half of May.

[Deweydog]

That would be climo down here. Our average first 80 is sometime in the the first half of May.

May will be 80-free.

[Omegaraptor]

 

Some places down in northern CA are actually drier YTD than they were in 2013. Willows, a town in that dark red area north of Sacramento, is currently at 1.96" precipitation YTD. This is a full inch below 2013 and the average Jan 1 to Apr 23 is about 13". Even the Colorado River area has been wetter. What a sharp contrast from last year.

 

Probably going to be nasty down there as far as wildfires go this summer. 

[MossMan]

May will be 80-free.

90’s!!

[Phil]

Crazy I figured we were going to cool down forever. That eight year La Nina can't be far off right?

That multiyear Niña is coming. The intra-decadal cycle in IPWP longitude/girth seems to regulate ENSO variability, and there’s clearly a westward recycling of the OHC maximum into the E-IO/Maritime Continent area of late. Question is how/when does the system exhaust/relocate the remaining OHC in the WPAC? There’s still a smallish relative surplus there, even though it’s been draining over the last several years.

[Phil]

Looking like a progressive pattern for the next month or so. I think most of May ends up seasonal. Then warmer than normal weather end of May into early June.

Really want to see how the Asian summer monsoon develops in May/June. One of the most revealing aspects of seasonality there is IMO..it can basically tell the story for June-September once it gets going.

[TacomaWaWx]

Hopefully we see an 80 degree day or two next month!

Pretty good chance we will, as Jesse said that’s pretty average to get our first 80 degree temps even up here in western WA in May. It’s hit 80 degrees here every year in May in Tacoma since 2013.

[TT-SEA]

60 and partly sunny here.

[Jesse]

May will be 80-free.

BOLD and crispy.

[MossMan]

60 and partly sunny here.

Cloudy and 55 here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

May will be 80-free.

 

Not 80-proof?