May 2020 Weather discussion for the PNW

[Timmy Supercell]

Still raining here! Believe me, since 11am it's been non-stop light rainfall here. Love it!!

 

Can we have more days like this? 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 18z operational wasn't looking too shabby in the long range...

Yeah, aligns with what the 12z EPS is showing in the 10 to 15 day range. Bring on summer!

[Dave]

Looks like a huge blob of moisture is headed for Andrew.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Steady rain here most of the day. It’s coming up the valley.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

One of those days where the cascades along Marion county block the rain from coming up here.

Rain was just to our south all afternoon, but coming down pretty good now!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The sound of the rain falling through the leaves is so intoxicating.

[TacomaWaWx]

0.14” so far today...0.90” on the month.

[Phil]

The sound of the rain falling through the leaves is so intoxicating.

Farmboy proceeds to hyperventilate into a paper bag.

[TacomaWaWx]

The sound of the rain falling through the leaves is so intoxicating.

The warm 55-60 degree rain has been nice to get out and walk in the past couple days here.

[Farmboy]

Yeah, aligns with what the 12z EPS is showing in the 10 to 15 day range. Bring on summer!

Only a couple weeks away from the meteorological beginning of summer!

[Phil]

Only a couple weeks away from the meteorological beginning of summer!

Looks like a legitimately cool summer incoming.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like a legitimately cool summer incoming.

I’m not even sure if that’s possible anymore.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah it’s too bad. Clock is ticking until our next bi-monthly death ridge, too. At least we can count on those to never underachieve

 

 

Been a long time since our last wet May. Would be nice to accomplish that given the pattern.

[Jesse]

I’m not even sure if that’s possible anymore.

Phil always shoots himself in the foot trying to troll the heat misers here.

[ShawniganLake]

Phil always shoots himself in the foot trying to troll the heat misers here.

I wasnt sure if he was being serious or not.

[Phil]

Phil always shoots himself in the foot trying to troll the heat misers here.

That wasn’t an entirely serious post FWIW.

 

It doesn’t look like a warm summer, at least. Could be average-ish, maybe a tad cool, slanted pretty dry? That’s my actual guess for now.

 

And to be clear, I called for a mild summer (slanted wet) back in 2019. And for a hot summer with a late climax back in 2018. This is the first cool forecast I’ve made since the one in 2017 (which busted, mostly due to the flip in the tropical forcing/H-W system that I wasn’t foreseeing).

[GeorgeWx]

Trewartha considers DC to be an oceanic climate (that’ll get a kick out of Phil). It also considers Eureka, CA to be “subtropical”.

 

I prefer the Koppen system although it is still heavily flawed.

I never understood how oceanic is in between continental and humid subtropical. Why does it extend into the middle of the country?

[Phil]

Trewartha considers DC to be an oceanic climate (that’ll get a kick out of Phil). It also considers Eureka, CA to be “subtropical”.

 

I prefer the Koppen system although it is still heavily flawed.

Oceanic my arse. Though to be fair, neither Koppen nor Trewartha accurately describes this climate. Heck, Koppen lumps us in with Orlando/Tampa/New Orleans. Even I’ll admit that’s a bit much.

 

Personally, I just call it monsoonal. Jun-Sep is almost always the same.. S winds, 85°-95° and oppressively humid almost every day. Highs below 80°/above 100° are rare. Cold fronts don’t even make it here during the dog days. Winters are clearly continental though, with W/NW winds clearly dominating.

[Phil]

MJO heading into the WPAC/WHEM for a bit with +AAM propagating poleward.

 

That’ll make Tim and the rest of team heat miser happy during the last week of May. At least briefly.

 

[Jesse]

MJO heading into the WPAC/WHEM for a bit with +AAM propagating poleward.

That’ll make Tim and the rest of team heat miser happy during the last week of May. At least briefly.

If that happens, May will be a slam dunk for our second well above average month in a row.

 

#coldspring

[Phil]

If that happens, May will be a slam dunk for our second well above average month in a row.

 

#coldspring

Better to get them out of the way now?

 

If it’s gonna torch, I’d prefer it happen in April/May as opposed to July/August.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Better to get them out of the way now?

 

If it’s gonna torch, I’d prefer it happen in April/May as opposed to July/August.

Torching here is reserved for January. Mother Nature has actually contractually obligated the south Willamette Valley from being able to experience appreciable cold and snow in the back half of January.

[Deweydog]

Nice night!

 

Dark here...

[TacomaWaWx]

Have picked up another 0.13” since midnight...up to 1.03” for the month. Low of 50 this morning....haven’t had a low temp below 50 in a week.

[MossMan]

Have picked up another 0.13” since midnight...up to 1.03” for the month. Low of 50 this morning....haven’t had a low temp below 50 in a week.

Had a low of 45 here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Got down to 50F. Now 52F with steady rain. Got a much-needed half inch of rainfall yesterday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some light rain this morning. Noticed SLE is running +2.3F on the month. Not as bad as I was expecting. 

[TT-SEA]

Sun is coming out here now.

[TT-SEA]

Not to be THAT guy, but several times when you say the sun is coming out, I look out my window and see a wall of maybe slightly thinner clouds. I think your sense of "sun is coming out" or "mostly sunny" has been warped by winter

 

 

Not shaming though, because I agree with the sentiment. If the clouds are thin enough to filter through the sunlight better, I'm a happy guy.

I am pretty optimistic in that regard!

 

I am was working and the sun started shining through the window off and on... but I did not go outside to look at the sky.

 

Here is a live view... sort of coming out. At least its not dark and raining like it was earlier. It does look darker towards Mt Si though.

 

[TT-SEA]

Side note... my lawn is ridiculously long right now.     

 

I did not want to waste the beautiful weather last weekend so its been 9 days now since it was last mowed.      The heat combined with the recent rain has been perfect conditions for rapid growth.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Should hopefully be able to get the mowing in tomorrow evening.

[Jesse]

Looks like a decent slug of moisture moving north into the Portland area.

[Farmboy]

Good news! Summer is on it's way.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like a decent slug of moisture moving north into the Portland area.

 

If this is moving up from the south then you'll be a happy camper.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Good news! Summer is on it's way.

 

So, business as usual for most of the last 7 yrs here.

[Jesse]

[Farmboy]

Vitamin D Determines Severity in COVID-19: Researchers Urge Government to Change Advice

 

 

 

https://scitechdaily.com/vitamin-d-determines-severity-in-covid-19-researchers-urge-government-to-change-advice/

[Jesse]

At least that should give Snowsquall something good to bump once we get to the next page.

[Jesse]

Vitamin D Determines Severity in COVID-19: Researchers Urge Government to Change Advice

https://scitechdaily.com/vitamin-d-determines-severity-in-covid-19-researchers-urge-government-to-change-advice/

Wrong thread.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am pretty optimistic in that regard!

 

I am was working and the sun started shining through the window off and on... but I did not go outside to look at the sky.

 

Here is a live view... sort of coming out. At least its not dark and raining like it was earlier. It does look darker towards Mt Si though.

 

 

I love the greenery this time of year. Yeah, it looked like that all morning here yesterday, but was drizzling the entire time too!