July 2023 PNW Observations and Discussions

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Models show a lot of things that end up being wrong. Especially at that range. Not too shocking.

So summer is over.  Bookmarked!

I will say that heat and humidity are no longer a concern at all for our trip to MN next week.  In fact it might be a little too cool.    

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I am not sure how you did it since your post was before mine!  Or maybe posted at the same time and it was technical glitch.   Really strange if you didn't pull that loop... because I definitely did.  

weird I wasn't even looking at maps, it was just a general comment about this upcoming winter

[Phil]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

So summer is over.  Bookmarked!

I will say that heat and humidity are no longer a concern at all for our trip to MN next week.  In fact it might be a little too cool.    

Not over yet. Especially since negative departure days can still be “summery” by your standards.

But we’re getting closer. Stratospheric polar vortex will develop in approximately 4 weeks, at which point the slow march to winter begins.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Not over yet. Especially since negative departure days can still be “summery” by your standards.

But we’re getting closer. Stratospheric polar vortex will develop in approximately 4 weeks, at which point the slow march to winter begins.

Interesting take.   I will need to look into this seasonal change thing more.   Less than 5 months until the days start getting longer!  

And yes... 80 and totally sunny from dawn to dusk is "summery" by my standards.   Very strange I know. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

15 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I think this winter will be a dud based on analogs for moderate/strong ninos at least over here.  we're do and I'm ok with it

 

1968-69 was a moderate Nino, 1965-66 and 1972-73 were strong Ninos that weren’t bad either. 

[Phil]

Looks like -QBO will descend maturely to 50mb this winter. Been awhile since we’ve had niño/-QBO maxed in DJF.

Also sets this year apart from 1991/92, 2015/16, etc, which maintained the +QBO at 50mb. So prospects are at least somewhat better in the PNW versus those years (tho relationship is indirect and complicated/multifaceted, can still be a dud).

[SnowWillarrive]

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Didn't take long for that pattern to vanish on this run.  

Don't think summer is going to die.

As long as we avoid extreme heat. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

As long as we avoid extreme heat. 

Indeed.   We are on quite a roll this summer.  Endlessly sunny and warm but with a complete lack of extreme heat.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don’t have high hopes for this winter, but that doesn’t mean we can’t have a 3day arctic blast at some point or a run of chilly inversions that give us a solidly chilly winter month. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Get ready for August. Noticeable loss of daylight hours every day now.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Decent end to July the past few days. Partly cloudy and breezy with a nice sunset yesterday, 80/56 spread. Sunny today, breezy NNW winds, and an 83/54 spread. Great moonrise this evening as well.

Even though it will very likely end up as another warmer than average month, I am looking forward to the shortening days and gradually dropping average temps of August.

[GHweatherChris]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Interesting take.   I will need to look into this seasonal change thing more.   Less than 5 months until the days start getting longer!  

And yes... 80 and totally sunny from dawn to dusk is "summery" by my standards.   Very strange I know. 

It was 80 from dawn to dusk there today  ? I call bull 

 

[TT-SEA]

@Phil The EPS and GEFS look pretty warm... not sure I would call this a cool pattern with a short-lived ridge.   Sort of the opposite.  

The EPS is obviously more meaningful in terms of temperature predictions.   I include the GEFS only because it shows the same dip and then increase again.   

[TT-SEA]

Speaking of daylight... I saw yesterday that Taylor Swift had to move back the second Seattle show by 30 minutes because they didn't realize how late it stays light here.   I guess a good part of the show depends on darkness for the full effect.   You would think people managing a billion dollar tour would have the resources to look up sunset times.   

Also the person on the east coast reporting the story noted that they had two sunny days in Seattle for the concerts and that was truly a miracle and how lucky Taylor was here in the "land of vampires".   News of our warmer summers has apparently not reached everyone yet.   

[Omegaraptor]

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Speaking of daylight... I saw yesterday that Taylor Swift had to move back the second Seattle show by 30 minutes because they didn't realize how late it stays light here.   I guess a good part of the show depends on darkness for the full effect.   You would think people managing a billion dollar tour would have the resources to look up sunset times.   

Also the person on the east coast reporting the story noted that they had two sunny days in Seattle for the concerts and that was truly a miracle and how lucky Taylor was here in the "land of vampires".   News of our warmer summers has apparently not reached everyone yet.   

Did you know Seattle gets more sunshine than:

Singapore?

Hilo, Hawaii?

Hong Kong?

2/3 of Europe?

About the same amount of sunshine as Rio de Janeiro?

[T-Town]

The wind has finally died out this morning in Suncadia. 52 degrees after a low of 50. 

[ChristheElohim]

55° now here at Eastside Tacoma Neighborhood did get down to 54° and Spanaway at 48° right now also the low this morning. 

[Phishy Wx]

down to 50 overnight.  too bad there was too much smoke around to open the windows.  cool wx did allow firefighters to get the upper hand on the fire near Spokane.  In the low 90s today, so hopefully not too many flare ups

[TT-SEA]

36 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Did you know Seattle gets more sunshine than:

Singapore?

Hilo, Hawaii?

Hong Kong?

2/3 of Europe?

About the same amount of sunshine as Rio de Janeiro?

Yeah... people love to play up stereotypes.  Our reputation comes from our winters and from being in the far northwest corner of our country.   But relatively speaking... Seattle is not a really cloudy place.  

[MossMan]

Summer is over. And so is July. 

[T-Town]

10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Summer is over. And so is July. 

Time to move from being pissed about the weather to being pissed about the Seahawks. 

[T-Town]

30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... people love to play up stereotypes.  Our reputation comes from our winters and from being in the far northwest corner of our country.   But relatively speaking... Seattle is not a really cloudy place.  

Hmmm. I’m sure there are cloudier places, but I have to believe that Seattle is a cloudy place relative to average.  

[T-Town]

Got out for an early morning walk. 

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Hmmm. I’m sure there are cloudier places, but I have to believe that Seattle is a cloudy place relative to average.  

Seattle gets about 2,170 hours of sun annually.    There are many large population centers that get significantly less.   Paris for example averages 1,717 hours.    Moscow averages 1,900 hours... Tokyo 2,030 hours... and Rio de Janeiro just slightly more at 2,180 hours.    Even in the US there are major cities that are similar or less... Pittsburgh averages 2,020 hours.   Seattle is not a particularly sunny city overall but its also not even close to the bottom in terms of large cities around the world.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

19 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Got out for an early morning walk. 

Wow Tacoma is beautiful 

[TacomaWx]

There’s an august thread someone pin plz! 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 hour ago, T-Town said:

Hmmm. I’m sure there are cloudier places, but I have to believe that Seattle is a cloudy place relative to average.  

The winter gray/dark is dreadful, especially without snow. Even when it isn't cloudy the sun is only "diet sun" due to its angle. 

[T-Town]

10 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

The winter gray/dark is dreadful, especially without snow. Even when it isn't cloudy the sun is only "diet sun" due to its angle. 

I probably wouldn’t go so far as to say dreadful but the gray definitely gets tiresome in the winter.  I think I’d like Colorado and can see relocating there someday. Lots of interesting weather with more sun. 

[T-Town]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow Tacoma is beautiful 

From its cool pine forests to its world class trout streams Tacoma is truly a land of wonderment. 

[Phil]

Man, 2023 is turning into quite the violent weather year imby. I’ve finally finished cleaning up the damage from 7/29. Took 3 freaking days. Reminds me of 2008 or 2009 in that regard.

Verbatim, week-2 would be one of the craziest severe wx patterns possible here in August. Suppose it’s just going to be one of those years.

[Deweydog]

It’s August 1st

[Phil]

Shawnigan ain’t kidding about the Canadian firestorms. Smoke is so thick the 2pm sun is barely making it through. I thought it was overcast.

But it’s all elevated above the boundary layer this time, so actually a beautiful day. Feels like Seattle!

[Phil]

With the exception of TX/Gulf, there is basically no extreme heat over the CONUS on guidance. 4CH goes back to its suppressed state, as it was in June/early July.

As long as the -AO develops as modeled, mid-latitude blocking highs/heat domes should have trouble establishing. Exception might be TX/deep south, where heat tends to build when there is troughing to the north.

[TT-SEA]

10 hours ago, T-Town said:

I probably wouldn’t go so far as to say dreadful but the gray definitely gets tiresome in the winter.  I think I’d like Colorado and can see relocating there someday. Lots of interesting weather with more sun. 

No water... ruins it for me!

[ShawniganLake]

13 hours ago, Phil said:

Shawnigan ain’t kidding about the Canadian firestorms. Smoke is so thick the 2pm sun is barely making it through. I thought it was overcast.

But it’s all elevated above the boundary layer this time, so actually a beautiful day. Feels like Seattle!

Close to 32 million acres have burned. Almost 1% of Canada’s forested land. 

[TT-SEA]

7 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Close to 32 million acres have burned. Almost 1% of Canada’s forested land. 

Just 99% to go and the fires will stop!  

[Ken in Wood Village]

It's a little disappointing the NWS website is doing upgrades and the observation hasn't updated since 11am yesterday but I'm noticing clouds in my area and the radar (as of 6:44am) shows showers coming up from the South. No lightning at this time but the SPC shows a marginal risk of thunderstorms today. Maybe we could see a little action today

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

It's a little disappointing the NWS website is doing upgrades and the observation hasn't updated since 11am yesterday but I'm noticing clouds in my area and the radar (as of 6:44am) shows showers coming up from the South. No lightning at this time but the SPC shows a marginal risk of thunderstorms today. Maybe we could see a little action today

It’s August now