August 2023 Weather in the PNW

[iFred]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

What specifically is your PhD in? Because your follow-up sentence is not even remotely accurate.

Simply detrending the data isn’t sufficient for attribution because much of the internal variability in question exists on much lower frequencies than the entire observational record. We’re talking centuries.

And this internal variability itself affects the radiation budget and systemic heat flows to a significant degree. Heck, the glacial cycle exists without any change to solar input..it’s merely how it’s distributed that affects tropical-ET circulation, cloud/ice albedo, etc.

Impossible to pick a random station and detrend from linear regression for attribution. That’s even if there is zero UHI/land use change corrupting said trend.

Bruh.

[iFred]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Lisa

Dental plan!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

26 minutes ago, iFred said:

Dental plan!

[NWbyNW]

Nobody seems to be answering.

 

 

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Nobody seems to be answering.

 

 

It’s been down for awhile.  I’m sure admin knows about it.  It’ll probably be fixed at some point

[Skagit Weather]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Bring it on!   Actually this comes after the weekend in western OR and WA... but looks delicious.  

 

It will be kind of funny if the only spot drier than us in the summer (coastal and central CA) ends up having a significantly wetter summer than us. This is better than nothing, but I would love to see an early wet system arrive. As bad as the drought and fires were in 2015 we were lucky in that the early season storm plowed through at the end of August and almost put out many of the fires in the North Cascades.

Probably need 2-3" over a couple days to really tamp down these fires. Average precipitation over the next month up here is about 2", but who knows if we'll get that.

[Cloud]

6 hours ago, lowlandsnow said:

Looks like NWS Seattle missed a record for Seatac wasn't it 94 on Monday at Seatac? 

Look like it was a bad copy/pasta from the previous day (Sunday 8/13).
 

Monday the 14th was indeed a 94 and previous record was  95 from 2010. 

[Gradient Keeper]

1:17 AM near West Gresham
Temp: 77.7, Dewpoint: 61.0. It is a ridiculously warm night!

[Gradient Keeper]

Check out Troutdale! 1 AM: 81 F, +6 ... Just dumb warmth tonight!

Temperature round-up / 24hr Temp Change

8/16/23 1:32 AM

 

- 1 AM

[Oregon Coast]
Astoria: 61, -2
Tillamook: 61, -2
Newport: 59, -- no change
Florence: 59, -7
North Bend: 60, -2
Brookings: 62, -4

 

[PDX-Vancouver Metro, Southwest Washington, Northern Willamette Valley]
Portland: 80, -1
Troutdale: 81, +6
Vancouver: 77, -3
Kelso: 72, -3
Scappoose: 74, -13
Hillsboro: 77, -3
McMinnville: 74, -- no change
Aurora: 77, -4

 

[Central/Southern Willamette Valley, Southern Oregon]
Salem: 76, -2
Corvallis: 75, -2
Eugene: 75, +1
Roseburg: 77, -2
Grants Pass: 73, -9
Medford: 83, -5
Klamath Falls: 67, -4

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

It’s been down for awhile.  I’m sure admin knows about it.  It’ll probably be fixed at some point

[Gradient Keeper]

2 AM and PDX is still 80!

[Tanis Leach]

Newest Video: 

Tomorrow is the last video I'm doing, then the channel is back into hibernation until 4th Saturday in October, unless another significant weather event is happening, or I decide to not get lazy and upload a travel video.

Anyways: Technical Info:

One day out score for highs being only 3°F over 3 days is good for PDX (1°F per day). Unfortunately, my Corvallis performance isn't as good this time around (off 3, 5, 4°F off), and the lows, I've been consistently 2-3°F warmer in both places. Should have corrected that this time around. With the models increasing today's temperature, I re-increased the highs. Wild card is still smoke, and this assumes a thinning layer of smoke (thinner for Portland). Pretty simple forecast this time around all things considered.  

[Tanis Leach]

13 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Wouldn’t surprise me. Most of us here (interested amateurs, not trained pros) just couldn’t understand why NWS Portland was ignoring how the Euro was shouting from on high that a big snowstorm was coming last February. I sort of chalked it up to bureaucratic pressure. Just about the only thing that could explain it.

Even TV ignored it too, with only Mark Nelsen even acknowledging that it flipped the night before. Day of, only KGW and KPTV raised their forecast to T-5".

I think too many of even trained professionals rely on models too much. It's even what I was taught in school. I was lurking then, so I know a few here called it in advance (don't remember who exactly). 

(Possible brag warning below, using it to compare you can't blindly follow models)

I should note that even though model riding was what I was taught in school, I did not do a model based forecast for that snowstorm, recognizing 36 hours (2 videos) before the Euro flipped that the wind setup the Euro had, with the low position was very dangerous for at least someone to get 7" of snow (said 3-7" originally, isolated to 9" or 10" in the peak zone, which I put in Washington (excluding Beaverton/TIgard) and NE Yamhill Counties), 10pm-6am most likely time. Day of, with the snow in the E. Metro, and models now saying W. metro would just get 3", I stuck to my guns and said a 2nd convergence zone would form 10pm-6am there, but since there was more moisture, I raised the forecast to match E. Metro (4-9", isolated to 12") Now in all fairness, I did still underestimate east metro (OG forecast was 1-3", raised to 4-9" isolated to 12" day of), and overestimated Eugene (2-5"), but how can someone who was 2 months out of college out-forecast the NWS, and all TV stations, by not using models on temps/snow? I didn't note the Euro flip since I recorded before it flipped, and since I wasn't using models already, I didn't feel the need to re-record. Happy to provide the video and technical info I provided those days for proof (will leave it off this since its long already).

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still 72F at EUG. Warm room temperature at 4AM with nights getting longer.

[Tyler Mode]

63 so far in Battle Ground.

[T-Town]

68.5 here, which is my overnight low so far. Glad this is the last day of this. 

[TT-SEA]

06Z ECMWF continues to show beautiful weather for the weekend.    It looks troughy at the 500mb level but clouds are non-existent with full sun and temps in the mid to upper 70s.   

 

[TT-SEA]

KUIL is at +8.3 for the month with data missing from Monday when it was close to 100 degrees there.    Conservatively dropping in a +18 departure on Monday to match Sunday puts that station at +9.1 for the month.    I hope the NWS doesn't just leave that day as missing.   

Also on the coast... HQM is now at +7.2 for the month.   

Meanwhile PDX is at +5.8 but SEA is only at +3.9.    OLM is running warmer than SEA at +4.3 and hit 100 yesterday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Hey now. My parent's town of Aunt Myrtle Creek really isn't too bad. Rural-ish living with close proximity to all the amenities a decent-sized city like Roseburg could offer.

Still a lot of meth around, though.

I enjoy visiting that area. My brother in law is a gambling addict, so he can get us free rooms at 7 Feathers whenever, I don’t gamble, but it’s a nice hotel and place to chill for a couple days. 

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS showed us returning to the norm this summer of temps consistently a little warmer than normal.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

KUIL is at +8.3 for the month with data missing from Monday when it was close to 100 degrees there.    Conservatively dropping in a +18 departure on Monday to match Sunday puts that station at +9.1 for the month.    I hope the NWS doesn't just leave that day as missing.   

Also on the coast... HQM is now at +7.2 for the month.   

Meanwhile PDX is at +5.8 but SEA is only at +3.9.    OLM is running warmer than SEA at +4.3 and hit 100 yesterday.

PDX is running +3.2 over their all time warmest month which I believe is last august. 

[Phil]

7 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Another fun tidbit... my house is lower than Omaha Nebraska and at the exact same elevation as the famously mountainous region of Kansas City.    

Ok mountain man.  

[Phil]

6 hours ago, iFred said:

Bruh.

FWIW I ran a similar question by my own advisor not too long ago. Attribution gets increasingly difficult on smaller/local scales. I don’t know of any published literature that argues otherwise, but if you do I’m happy to read it and refine my viewpoint if needs be.

[Anti Marine Layer]

There is a 4CH this summer. Phil said that there wouldn't be any.

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

Ok mountain man.  

Sort of embarrassing that my mountaintop estate is lower than Omaha NE.   

But we soar an amazing 500 feet over SeaTac so that is pretty cool.   The planes have to divert around this area as they can't get this high.

[YahRaEl]

What's considered the coastal boundary/zone or nearshore of the Puget Sound before one can considered themselves inland? I was thinking the first 3 miles from Puget Sound is nearshore/coastal line and more than 3 miles in is inland. 

[Omegaraptor]

27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

PDX is running +3.2 over their all time warmest month which I believe is last august. 

PDX MTD average: 77.3°F

Average August in Chico: 76.7°F

[Phil]

Good thread

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1691542595619491841?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

[Rubus Leucodermis]

64.2˚F. Overnight min: 63.3˚F.

[Cloud]

Somewhat thankful for a slight breeze earlier this morning around the lake near RNT. Overnight lows were pretty similar to last night’s but what little breeze by the lake made it felt a bit cooler. 

[Cloud]

58 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z EPS showed us returning to the norm this summer of temps consistently a little warmer than normal.   

Not much to complain about with these outputs after today and tomorrow. Guess there is one… would love to some and it seems we’ll have to wait until Sept. 

Feels like the 10 day precip map on the 00z op run is some kinda sick joke though. Pretty much says screw you W.Wa and a large part of W.OR

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Not much to complain about with these outputs after today and tomorrow. Guess there is one… would love to some and it seems we’ll have to wait until Sept. 

Feels like the 10 day precip map on the 00z op run is some kinda sick joke though. Pretty much says screw you W.Wa and a large part of W.OR

That would practically end fire season south of Willamette Pass in the Cascades. I’d take it. Almost impossible now for PDX to avoid blowing away their all time record month now though, those near to slightly above average temps aren’t gonna cut it. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

30 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

What's considered the coastal boundary/zone or nearshore of the Puget Sound before one can considered themselves inland? I was thinking the first 3 miles from Puget Sound is nearshore/coastal line and more than 3 miles in is inland. 

I don't know what the "technical" definition is, but I've pretty much used that as a rule of thumb as well.  I am 4.3 miles from the closest shoreline, and we definitely get quite a bit warmer than the waterfront during heat waves, and I would say that the places I tend to frequent between me and the waterfront are incrementally cooler as you get closer.  Of course the inverse applies in the winter.

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Somewhat thankful for a slight breeze earlier this morning around the lake near RNT. Overnight lows were pretty similar to last night’s but what little breeze by the lake made it felt a bit cooler. 

The low at SEA was 72 through 5 a.m. but then it snuck down to 68 at 6 a.m.

[YahRaEl]

4 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I don't know what the "technical" definition is, but I've pretty much used that as a rule of thumb as well.  I am 4.3 miles from the closest shoreline, and we definitely get quite a bit warmer than the waterfront during heat waves, and I would say that the places I tend to frequent between me and the waterfront are incrementally cooler as you get closer.  Of course the inverse applies in the winter.

Nice. Yeah I asked for two reasons one I'm a birdwatcher and I see some birds habitat put as nearshore or coastal boundary of Puget Sound and also was wondering what's the main limit of how far Puget Sound influences goes in. I'm little over two miles from nearest shoreline myself.

[Omegaraptor]

6 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Not much to complain about with these outputs after today and tomorrow. Guess there is one… would love to some and it seems we’ll have to wait until Sept. 

Feels like the 10 day precip map on the 00z op run is some kinda sick joke though. Pretty much says screw you W.Wa and a large part of W.OR

“Corvegas” no longer seems appropriate. Vegas is too wet. Maybe Cairovallis? Northern Chilevallis?

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The low at SEA was 72 through 5 a.m. but then it snuck down to 68 at 6 a.m.

You know what’s weird? It did the same thing yesterday morning around 6am also for a low of 68. It stayed in the 70s for most of the night but snuck down right before sunrise. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Not much to complain about with these outputs after today and tomorrow. Guess there is one… would love to some and it seems we’ll have to wait until Sept. 

Feels like the 10 day precip map on the 00z op run is some kinda sick joke though. Pretty much says screw you W.Wa and a large part of W.OR

That's still a long ways off and a lot can change between now and then. The way I look at it is, it's a general representation of what may happen. When we get closer to the event, we will have a better understanding what will happen. The steering (where the high pressure system is setting up) will determine where the moisture will go. For now, if this verifies, it would help a great deal with the forest fires in the areas where moisture falls.

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

That's still a long ways off and a lot can change between now and then. The way I look at it is, it's a general representation of what may happen. When we get closer to the event, we will have a better understanding what will happen. The steering (where the high pressure system is setting up) will determine where the moisture will go. For now, if this verifies, it would help a great deal with the forest fires in the areas where moisture falls.

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

9 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Not much to complain about with these outputs after today and tomorrow. Guess there is one… would love to some and it seems we’ll have to wait until Sept. 

Feels like the 10 day precip map on the 00z op run is some kinda sick joke though. Pretty much says screw you W.Wa and a large part of W.OR

Kind of depressing to see for us north interior sounders who are also looking at this map:
 

 

We had an extreme drought in the late 80's in the northern half of Georgia, and things got pretty bad, banning all outdoor water use, shutting down car washes etc.  The Chattahoochee River became a creek.

 

I'm surprised they have not done any water bans here this summer.  I think they did last year, and I know they did the last dry spell we had (which I don't think was as bad as this.)