2023 - 2024 Autumn & Winter Discussions

[westMJim]

For what it is worth here is the current state of El Nino

[mlgamer]

38 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I believe we are currently sitting on the warm side of this balancing act. However, if I were storing cold air, I'd start it over the largest landmass in the Northern Hemisphere. 

Interesting stuff indeed.

I agree. Also, if I were to think of a similar "harsh" December for me it would be 1983 and 1989.

December 1983 was very cold and snowy start to finish.

December 1989 was very interesting. It was pretty mild on the front and backend with a bitter cold snap in the middle of the month Dec 11-24. Topeka set it's all time record low of -26 on December 23 and had a high of 46 on Christmas Day. The temp had climbed 72 degrees in basically two days.

[gimmesnow]

6 minutes ago, westMJim said:

For what it is worth here is the current state of El Nino

The phallic nature really describes what el nino is giving us this december.

[Clinton]

4 hours ago, westMJim said:

For what it is worth here is the current state of El Nino

Terry Swails wrote a blog a fee days ago showing the warmer waters had moved west to the 3.4 region.  He believes this will become a Modoki Nino and we will likely see a flip to Winter around the first of the year.

[OKwx2k4]

7 hours ago, mlgamer said:

I agree. Also, if I were to think of a similar "harsh" December for me it would be 1983 and 1989.

December 1983 was very cold and snowy start to finish.

December 1989 was very interesting. It was pretty mild on the front and backend with a bitter cold snap in the middle of the month Dec 11-24. Topeka set it's all time record low of -26 on December 23 and had a high of 46 on Christmas Day. The temp had climbed 72 degrees in basically two days.

The 1983-84 cold spells are one of the longest and harshest in Oklahoma history. January 1984's cold wave was smaller, but I joke that it's likely the reason I was born because in mid-October 1984, there I was.  Lol. Must be why I like cold and snow so much. 

[westMJim]

12 hours ago, Clinton said:

Terry Swails wrote a blog a fee days ago showing the warmer waters had moved west to the 3.4 region.  He believes this will become a Modoki Nino and we will likely see a flip to Winter around the first of the yea

I am almost sure we will see some colder temperatures in January. This winter so far looks a lot like the winter of 1931/32 that winter the snow and cold did not come until March in West Michigan. We shall see.

[jaster220]

42 minutes ago, westMJim said:

I am almost sure we will see some colder temperatures in January. This winter so far looks a lot like the winter of 1931/32 that winter the snow and cold did not come until March in West Michigan. We shall see.

[jaster220]

ORD

Quote

Discussion:

Sunday night into Monday, the storm system responsible for a rainy
Saturday in the Great Lakes will phase with an unseasonably strong
Gulf low near Florida, leading to the development of a powerful
975mb or so low pressure system lifting along the Atlantic Coast.
Meanwhile, a secondary upper-level shortwave will dive into the
Great Lakes and pull a 1030+ mb surface high pressure system in the
Plains. The net effect will be a tumbling temperatures and a tightly-
packed surface pressure gradient across the Mississippi River
Valley. As a result, Monday looks rather unpleasant with
temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s, blustery northwesterly
winds gusting 30 to 35 mph (if not higher?), and wind chills in the
teens.

Tumbling 850mb temperatures will support a blossoming stratocumulus
deck smack dab in the middle of the DGZ Monday afternoon, which will
likely spit out flurries from time to time. Meanwhile, in northwest
Indiana, water-850mb temperature differentials will grow to 12 to
13C and inversion heights will build to about 8000ft supporting a
period of low-intensity lake effect snow showers. Since the upper-
level wave will be compact, there will only be a 6-12 hour period
supportive of snow, so accumulations will be limited (generally an
inch or two, max). However, gusty northwesterly winds of 30 to 35
mph may lead to periods of markedly low visibility particularly near
Lake Michigan.

Looks like Monday could be a brief taste of winter for some in the MW/GL's

Since moving to Detroit, it's like I've almost forgotten what a real-deal winter stretch is like. From 2019:

[gimmesnow]

On 12/15/2023 at 9:17 AM, jaster220 said:

ORD

Looks like Monday could be a brief taste of winter for some in the MW/GL's

Since moving to Detroit, it's like I've almost forgotten what a real-deal winter stretch is like. From 2019:

Sucks for skiing and snowboarding. They can make some snow but after rain and warmth, that cold spell will make the ski hills solid ice and totally garbage. I really hope things turn around after new years.

[Minny_Weather]

GFS/GEFS FINALLY pushes the super warm air south after Christmas. I'll still be well above average, but it does make me feel a bit better knowing that any clippers that come here won't be sh!tty rainers.

[Tom]

It slipped my mind to look at the new JMA seasonal so I'll share the 500mb charts below...pretty much all systems a "GO" as we Ring in the New Year of 2024.  If these maps come close to being accurate, it'll be a LONG winter this year as we enter MET Spring.  As JB says, Delayed but not Denied...

JAN...

 

FEB...

 

 

MAR...

[Niko]

This has the looks of an Jan-early mid Mar winter hit. Some good arctic masses and storms to hit.

[Niko]

On 12/15/2023 at 10:17 AM, jaster220 said:

ORD

Looks like Monday could be a brief taste of winter for some in the MW/GL's

Since moving to Detroit, it's like I've almost forgotten what a real-deal winter stretch is like. From 2019:

What a beautiful forecast to see and knowing its urs.

[jaster220]

21 hours ago, Tom said:

It slipped my mind to look at the new JMA seasonal so I'll share the 500mb charts below...pretty much all systems a "GO" as we Ring in the New Year of 2024.  If these maps come close to being accurate, it'll be a LONG winter this year as we enter MET Spring.  As JB says, Delayed but not Denied...

JAN...

 

FEB...

 

 

MAR...

@Tom

Is there any data on how accurate the JMA is (skill score, etc) on these seasonal forecasts? I don't think anyone has been calling for a cold winter, let alone a "locked-in" cold winter with the Nino still raging. I'd like to have a better understanding if this is just more "model bias" in favor of our thirst for #realdealwinter?

[Tom]

21 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

@Tom

Is there any data on how accurate the JMA is (skill score, etc) on these seasonal forecasts? I don't think anyone has been calling for a cold winter, let alone a "locked-in" cold winter with the Nino still raging. I'd like to have a better understanding if this is just more "model bias" in favor of our thirst for #realdealwinter?

IMO, the JMA is one of the better and more accurate LR models for Weeklies and Seasonal forecasts.  Just like the Euro, it has been showing this scenario play out, as well as, the good Ol' UKIE from the UK.  I'm really confident in this forecast and there isn't much pull back I'm seeing that could totally flip this scenario into a dud winter.  However, those over the northern Tier of the U.S. will likely stay drier bc of the lack of a storm track due to the strong NINO (ish) STJ that is firing up.  The only saving grace up north would have to be in the form of clippers or PAC waves.  You will love your new place up north amigo.  The lack of any ice across the GL's and the brutal cold that is coming in JAN/FEB will undoubtedly produce some legit Blitz LES.

[Black Hole]

Definitely going to continued to see an assault on the PV with a good signal for a SSW event at the end of this year or first part of January. Certainly not a guarantee but often models don't really lock in until around 2 weeks out so this week will be telling. 

[Black Hole]

It continues to appear January will feature some interesting winter weather. Take this snapshot from the EPS control run. Lots of cold air coming south mid Jan with several systems in the Plains. 

[gabel23]

Interesting article about the current state of the drought in my area. I never realized some places are running 25-30" below average for the year! Ever since the floods here of 2019 we have been running below. I have talked to a lot of old timers and obviously the 30's stands out as the worst. Some farmers I have talked about said the 50's was worse. We are currently there right now. Gonna take a lot to get out. 

[Beltrami Island]

1 hour ago, gabel23 said:

Interesting article about the current state of the drought in my area. I never realized some places are running 25-30" below average for the year! Ever since the floods here of 2019 we have been running below. I have talked to a lot of old timers and obviously the 30's stands out as the worst. Some farmers I have talked about said the 50's was worse. We are currently there right now. Gonna take a lot to get out. 

 

I remember hearing the 50s drought was worse than the 30s as well other places online... The difference is the farming practices in the plains were much improved by the 50s (or terrible leading up to the 30s, depending on your point of view) that the dustbowl didn't repeat in the 50s.  

[Black Hole]

GFS/GFS ext continuing to show what appears to be a SSW event as we get into January. 

[Black Hole]

These are from Eric Webb, who I think got them from Paul Roundy. Anyway, constructed analog for January puts a SE ridge and western trough. Should be a good pattern for winter weather in the Plains. 

EPS/GEFS extended seem to agree with this statistical/analog method. 

 

I think this may end up being one of the best potential stretches of winter for OK and surrounding areas. Obviously will come down to the small details we just have no idea about yet. 

[gabel23]

1 hour ago, Beltrami Island said:

I remember hearing the 50s drought was worse than the 30s as well other places online... The difference is the farming practices in the plains were much improved by the 50s (or terrible leading up to the 30s, depending on your point of view) that the dustbowl didn't repeat in the 50s.  

Same exact thing a farmer that was around during those times told me! He said the 50's was worse than the 30's but they learned what not to do! 

[Black Hole]

25 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Is it possible to tell from these maps which way the cold air would be pushed?

Not definitively, but it's typically the case that the way that the warming happens can give some clues about how it will manifest at the surface down the road. SSW's main effects are that they disconnect the troposphere PV from the stratospheric one making it more free to move about and secondly, increase upper level heights in the polar regions. 

With that said, it does seem to me that in general the location of the stratospheric PV as it weakens and moves loosely translates down to the surface. In that sense, unless the SPV is completely destroyed its better to have whatever remains move over or close to our area. Admittedly, long range guidance seems to favor a piece over Europe and a piece over east Asia so maybe this one won't really help us...we will just have to wait and see model trends the next week or two. 

[Black Hole]

Here is the Jan 2019 SSW compared to the current forecast. Not a bad match anyway. But the thing that concerns me is that the highest anomalies are right over Canada where we just can't get rid of the ridging. The atmosphere does not need an excuse to build a ridge there lol

[OttumwaSnomow]

6 hours ago, gabel23 said:

Interesting article about the current state of the drought in my area. I never realized some places are running 25-30" below average for the year! Ever since the floods here of 2019 we have been running below. I have talked to a lot of old timers and obviously the 30's stands out as the worst. Some farmers I have talked about said the 50's was worse. We are currently there right now. Gonna take a lot to get out.

Ottumwa Iowa deficit  over 30" 2022 and 2023.  I hear 1955 and 1956  2nd driest 2 yrs to this.  Id like to know Ottumwa  Iowa deficit  since June 2012 almost every summer has been dry, of course theres a few exceptions.  But dry weather here in the growing season  is chronic now, no doubt worse than 1930s and 1950s. Not sure about  that map? Ames Iowa  and few other spots have no where near a 30 inch deficit. What I find most shocking is after the mo and miss river floods of 2019 national geographic  channel aired a report that stated iowa is so flooded that in coming yrs crops cant be grown  and  markets will be affected  and starvation  could set in.  Needless  i laughed  at that because  in my part of Iowa I have barely  seen 1 flooded  field  for 11 years!!!!!!

[Grizzcoat]

6 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Ottumwa Iowa deficit  over 30" 2022 and 2023.  I hear 1955 and 1956  2nd driest 2 yrs to this.  Id like to know Ottumwa  Iowa deficit  since June 2012 almost every summer has been dry, of course theres a few exceptions.  But dry weather here in the growing season  is chronic now, no doubt worse than 1930s and 1950s. Not sure about  that map? Ames Iowa  and few other spots have no where near a 30 inch deficit. What I find most shocking is after the mo and miss river floods of 2019 national geographic  channel aired a report that stated iowa is so flooded that in coming yrs crops cant be grown  and  markets will be affected  and starvation  could set in.  Needless  i laughed  at that because  in my part of Iowa I have barely  seen 1 flooded  field  for 11 years!!!!!!

Here is Ottumwa precip since 2012- from the airpot- KOTM

 

30 yr running mean avg annual precip is 37".

Since 2012- the mean is 32.43" with 11 days left in DEC 2023.

Interestingly- according to this data -- KOTM with another .25" of precip (easily doable with upcoming pattern) the rest of DEC WILL Not be the driest year on the record. That would be 1953. Top 5 driest years at KOTM.

 

[Grizzcoat]

Agree on the 1950's being just as bad as the 30's if not worse for drought in the Midwest. A fun fact about July in Des Moines that was up until 2012 (July 23rd at 105F) the last time a high temp was broken was 1955 (57 years). That's incredible.

 

[OttumwaSnomow]

4 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Here is Ottumwa precip since 2012- from the airpot- KOTM

 

30 yr running mean avg annual precip is 37".

Since 2012- the mean is 32.43" with 11 days left in DEC 2023.

Interestingly- according to this data -- KOTM with another .25" of precip (easily doable with upcoming pattern) the rest of DEC WILL Not be the driest year on the record. That would be 1953. Top 5 driest years at KOTM.

 

Wow thanks @Grizzcoat for this data.  It feels like if the avg was looked at in 2011 it would be considerably  over 40" but from 2012 to now considerably  under 30".  I strongly  feel the July to Sept months have greatly   decreased here.   We  have averaged mowing each lawn 8 to 18 times. Instead  of the previous  25 to 32 times,  which translates into millions $$. 2 lawns east of Ottumwa  we only mowed 5 times all season in 2023!!! Irrigating  is nonexistent  here. We do large commercial  lawns. Snow has been more reliable.  Another  interesting  tidbit is OTM hasnt had a month over 4 inches since Oct 2021!! Which mean no runoff. Streams and creeks and some ponds are totally  dried up.

[Black Hole]

EPS zonal wind forecast was the best its been at any point this winter so far, and markedly better than what it had even yesterday. The mean zonal wind gets down to +3 m/s, very close to the reversal to easterly wind. Many members well below 0 indicating major SSW events. While this does not guarantee anything at the surface, it does increase the probability. 

[Tom]

CPC's JAN - MAR outlook... @OKwx2k4 @Black Hole are they going to be Ground Zero??

 

[Minny_Weather]

If this isn't your stereotypical El Nino pattern then I don't know what is

[Minny_Weather]

New EPS weekly run is out and it's about as terrible as expected for me. The ONLY good thing I took out of it is there is a pretty unstable stretch in mid-January that could lead to some clipper-driven moisture for me, and it would 100% be snow. Other than that, the absolute coldest I get in the entire run is seasonable warmth.

Looks better for Black Hole and especially our eastern posters such as chesco. 

[Up_north_MI]

I had a number of friends and family ask me a couple months back my thoughts for this coming winter because they know I’m kinda into weather and trying to figure out longer range forecasts. I told them all the same thing that I expect a warm December because it’s extremely hard to have a cold December anymore and with the strong El Niño it’s going to be pretty hard to get any cold stretches at any point this winter. Unfortunately it looks like I’m going to be correct because I do enjoy cold and snow during the winter. With as strong as this El Niño was this Fall it was a pretty easy call honestly and I was pretty surprised when I saw anyone think otherwise and call for average temperatures this winter let alone colder then average. There are so many different people that put out long range forecasts on you tube and these type of forums and it’s taken me a few years of paying attention but I feel I have a pretty good idea of who to read and listen to and who not to. Long range forecasts are extremely difficult to get correct but I feel when we’re heading into a El Niño like this one it’s a pretty easy call for warmth. 

[Black Hole]

We definitely have a window coming up from Christmas into early January down here. It's not going to be real cold so any potential storm will have to rely on steady heavy precip and a good track. 

[jaster220]

On 12/20/2023 at 8:47 AM, OttumwaSnomow said:

Wow thanks @Grizzcoat for this data.  It feels like if the avg was looked at in 2011 it would be considerably  over 40" but from 2012 to now considerably  under 30".  I strongly  feel the July to Sept months have greatly   decreased here.   We  have averaged mowing each lawn 8 to 18 times. Instead  of the previous  25 to 32 times,  which translates into millions $$. 2 lawns east of Ottumwa  we only mowed 5 times all season in 2023!!! Irrigating  is nonexistent  here. We do large commercial  lawns. Snow has been more reliable.  Another  interesting  tidbit is OTM hasnt had a month over 4 inches since Oct 2021!! Which mean no runoff. Streams and creeks and some ponds are totally  dried up.

So glad I passed on that job offer in Iowa, sounds like Wx Hobbiest Hell!

Don't forget tho, there was a time when Hell had more snow OTG than Marquette!

[Black Hole]

GFS shoves a PV lobe over NA on its 12z run. Nice to see this since most other runs have not done this. 

[Beltrami Island]

3 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

GFS shoves a PV lobe over NA on its 12z run. Nice to see this since most other runs have not done this. 

 

It means more to show the changes from current to something prior to model fantasy timeframe to demonstrate there are substantial changes likely coming.  Look at the difference between t0 and 240 hours. I don't know what the changes might mean in regards wether on the ground but it's a change nonetheless.

[Black Hole]

4 hours ago, Beltrami Island said:

It means more to show the changes from current to something prior to model fantasy timeframe to demonstrate there are substantial changes likely coming.  Look at the difference between t0 and 240 hours. I don't know what the changes might mean in regards wether on the ground but it's a change nonetheless.

That's fine and all, but to anybody who knows about SSW events and what to look for, what I posted was meaningful. I've posted many maps over the last few weeks highlighting the potential. I verbally described what the difference was compared to the past runs that did not have a PV lobe over North America...etc. 

Lastly, there is typically much less going on in the stratosphere. It's not fantasy land at day 15 for a SSW. It's almost certainly going to happen, it's just a matter of how and where the anomalies focus at this point. But I am not going to debate with you beyond this about whether my posts could be better or not. I came on here on my own free time to share my thoughts, which have always been well-received by others, and that's good enough for me.  

[Clinton]

The AO, NAO, and EPO are on their way to negative territory.  Put the SSW event I would say some cold and or artic air is imminent. 

[Clinton]

Models agreeing that the MJO will go from phase 2 into the null phase in early January.  With the other teleconnections in line and the LRC it should set the southern plains, central plains and lower lakes up for some potentially nice snows between Jan 5th - 10th.

Phase 1 for Dec

Phase 2 for Jan.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/DJF/combined_image.png