October 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Frontal Snowsquall]

7 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS brings the rain back sooner than the ECMWF and is actually a little faster than its 12Z run... coming in Sunday night.  

The 00z EURO is a little faster as well with the rain compared to its 12z run. Monday looks wet west of the Cascades.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF is much wetter for Monday than it's 12Z run.   Coming back into agreement with the GFS.   Have to say that the GFS has been more consistent than the ECMWF in the 5-8 day range recently.   

[Deweydog]

8 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It makes me sad, but I very often feel like place isn’t good for me. I’ve tried to scale back and post mostly personal obs the last several months, maybe model commentary or ensembles sometimes, not participate in the flame wars to a fraction of a degree that I used to, ignore certain problem causing posters completely. But, for reasons I can’t fully understand, there seems to be this sense of vicious sadism regarding our warming climate and constantly mocking those who are upset by it in any way. It just feels really ugly and mean to me. It often makes it not feel worth it to log in, period. I’ve been trying my best to ignore it but, it’s constant and persistent. Not sure what the ultimate goal even is aside from wanting me and others who think like me to go away completely.

It’s been an incredibly difficult year in my personal life for reasons I do not wish to go into on here, and following the models/posting about the weather is a nice distraction and something that I take great enjoyment in at its best. I really like and enjoy the input from the majority of posters here as well, but thanks to a select few I am rapidly losing the will to be a part of this community anymore. And maybe that’s just the outcome they want.

Sorry, brother. Sounds like more than a few of us have had tough years. We all get a choice on how we respond and how much we want to grind it out. The grind is all about making it better for yourself through that which makes it better for those around you. It’s about people, not the weather, both here and in the real world. The weather makes nothing personal. We choose to make it personal and the key is to find the beauty in it every day. Today was a beautiful day. Tomorrow will be one too!

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The 00z EURO is a little faster as well with the rain compared to its 12z run. Monday looks wet west of the Cascades.

We posted simultaneously about Monday. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Sorry, brother. Sounds like more than a few of us have had tough years. We all get a choice on how we respond and how much we want to grind it out. The grind is all about making it better for yourself through that which makes it better for those around you. It’s about people, not the weather, both here and in the real world. The weather makes nothing personal. We choose to make it personal and the key is to find the beauty in it every day. Today was a beautiful day. Tomorrow will be one too!

Well said.   

[Eugene-5SW]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

 if you really can't help letting them get to you, then yeah, logging off is probably the best choice. 

That’s what I did. I couldn’t stand the heat, so I got out of the kitchen. I wasn't trying to control other people's behavior, which I can't, but my reaction to it, which it's my responsibility to control, but I couldn't.

Seems sad to me, though, that even an endeavor so ostensibly innocent and harmless as a forum for weather enthusiasts has to devolve into a Darwinian “Survivor” arena where only the thickest-skinned alpha-dog types can feel comfortable to participate, and even sadder that this state of affairs can correctly be shrugged off simply as “it’s the internet.”

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS shows the quick collapse of our ridge and then transitions to what looks it would be a fairly wet pattern with troughing offshore through the end of the run.    Also shows persistent troughing in the eastern part of the country.   That seems early for Nino year but maybe that was what @Philwas referring to yesterday with the tropical charts.

[Jakewestsalem]

Well, my father is undergoing 3x bypass surgery in less than 24 hours.

Do that get me a pass into the Rough Year Club?

[The Cats Meow]

53 this morning in the Puyallup Valley

Shaping up to be a nice day

That crisp morning air is so refreshing

[MossMan]

Wet deck but nothing measured in the rain gauge. 54 degrees. 
 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 hours ago, Eugene-5SW said:

That’s what I did. I couldn’t stand the heat, so I got out of the kitchen. I wasn't trying to control other people's behavior, which I can't, but my reaction to it, which it's my responsibility to control, but I couldn't.

Seems sad to me, though, that even an endeavor so ostensibly innocent and harmless as a forum for weather enthusiasts has to devolve into a Darwinian “Survivor” arena where only the thickest-skinned alpha-dog types can feel comfortable to participate, and even sadder that this state of affairs can correctly be shrugged off simply as “it’s the internet.”

Unfortunately, it is probably inherent in the faceless anonymity of the medium.

I remember how optimistic the voices of many Internet pioneers were in the late 80’s and early 90’s. There were a few voices sounding notes of caution, pointing out that radio and television both had similar optimism in their early years, optimism that was not borne out in reality. Turns out those dissenting voices were, in many ways, correct.

[Deweydog]

Drizzle!

[Phishy Wx]

some non-weather forums that I'm on are brutal, this place is tame by comparison and I mean that in a good way.  It's a nice retreat and a relatively stable corner of the internet, imo

[TT-SEA]

A very wet Monday on the 12Z GFS.... big increase from the 00Z run.    00Z ECMWF looked similar.

 

[YahRaEl]

AccuWeather 2023-24 Winter Outlook 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/us-winter-forecast-for-the-2023-2024-season/1583853

[RentonHill]

every time I pass exit 31 on I90

 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

every time I pass exit 31 on I90

 

Last week you invited me down to Snoqualmie to join you for lunch!   

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM was just as wet as the GFS for Monday and wetter down south.   Solid model agreement now on that system.

 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Last week you invited me down to Snoqualmie to join you for lunch!   

 

And you didn’t even respond!!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

And you didn’t even respond!!

Sorry about that.. I did like the post though.

[Snownerd3000]

12 hours ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Just was reading a paper on how -pdo mutes the effects of El nino. I'll see if I can find it. 

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac9327/pdf

[Deweydog]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Last week you invited me down to Snoqualmie to join you for lunch!   

 

 

[The Blob]

I chaperone my sons class to Hoyt Arboretum yesterday. The trees are starting to turn.

[the_convergence_zone]

44 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac9327/pdf

Phil's not wrong about the PDO being a reflection of other processes but for those of us that can't keep the other 40 oscillation acronyms straight it is certainly quite useful. 

[MossMan]

Y’all are family in my book…Some of you I have known now for nearly 20 years now! Lots of ups and downs both with the weather, the forum, and life in general. But this forum has been the one constant in life that you can always depend on being there. Let’s rock this miserable upcoming El Niño together! 
Oh and it’s coming…In November! After that who knows. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 hours ago, Jakewestsalem said:

Well, my father is undergoing 3x bypass surgery in less than 24 hours.

Do that get me a pass into the Rough Year Club?

I’m praying your father has a successful surgery and fast recovery.  

[MossMan]

It’s coming! 

[Phil]

13 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

I think you sometimes get hung up too much on semantics/chicken-egg with this. Yes, the PDO is a reflection of other external forces. But that doesn't mean that what the PDO is representing is not influential and to an extent predictive.

But it can represent *different* things. And sometimes those things are no longer happening despite the echo lingering.

In this case, it’s more like the latter. I suspect the “PDO” will become very positive within a couple of years.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s coming! 

Your phone blew up too? Lol

[Phil]

4 hours ago, Jakewestsalem said:

Well, my father is undergoing 3x bypass surgery in less than 24 hours.

Do that get me a pass into the Rough Year Club?

Ugh, I’m so sorry man. Sending thoughts and prayers.

[Chewbacca Defense]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s coming! 

I got the alert 2 minutes early, and I have 2 cell phones (one for work).  There is a Wile E Coyote style hole in my ceiling over my desk!

 

 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Your phone blew up too? Lol

They announced that there would be national test today.   I think everyone got the alert.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

They announced that there would be national test today.   I think everyone got the alert.

Well I’m out of the loop then

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Well I’m out of the loop then

Best not to watch the news... its depressing.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF really focuses the system on Monday to the south.   

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Best not to watch the news... it’s depressing.

I don’t really watch TV at all. Don’t see the point of staring at a screen watching fake people do fake things.

Every now and then we’ll stream a movie or I’ll have TWC on during a hurricane or blizzard to see the live footage, but otherwise,

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF really focuses the system on Monday to the south.   

What a regional blessing 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What a regional blessing 

Would be nice for Oregon since recent systems have been focused farther north.   

[Phishy Wx]

28 minutes ago, Phil said:

Your phone blew up too? Lol

Everyone's did, that was the point

[Phishy Wx]

28 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I got the alert 2 minutes early, and I have 2 cell phones (one for work).  There is a Wile E Coyote style hole in my ceiling over my desk!

 

 

was on a Teams with a colleague on the east coast.  had about 5-6 devices in the house going off.  Cats freakin out. i