October 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Meatyorologist]

10 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm sooo ready for some wet windy fall weather. Sure today is nice because it is crisp but I'm over the warm weather. 

Welcome back

[TT-SEA]

43 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm sooo ready for some wet windy fall weather. Sure today is nice because it is crisp but I'm over the warm weather. 

Welcome back!

Still in WA?    You said you were moving the last we heard. 

Be glad you aren't in MN.  They canceled the Twin Cities marathon today due to excessive heat.   It was in the 90s with dewpoint near 70.    Then highs in the 40s by the middle of the week. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

43 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm sooo ready for some wet windy fall weather. Sure today is nice because it is crisp but I'm over the warm weather. 

So glad to see you back, man! Missed you! Thanks for being such a class act and one of the most gracious people I've ever known! If I could work for you, I would be so happy doing repetitive stuff!

All the best, looking forward to the regular season! Hope you get buried with feet of snow.

[TT-SEA]

39 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Thu to Sat could hit 80 with Friday being the best chance right now.

 

Taking the boat out Saturday then trading off with my sons and their friends.   That will be a record for us boating in 7 different months in one season.    It will be interesting to see if we can repeat next year with an early spring being likely.   

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Also starting to look like we won’t have to endure too much misery next week before a rainy pattern returns. Although it wouldn’t surprise me to see the ridgy pattern get extended.

Need to save this example (of many) when you are busy mocking Karens.    A totally normal October progression is described as misery.    Karen-like indeed.

You got so angry about @Port Angeles Foothiller complaining about climo low temps a couple weeks ago.   Well... a progression from warm to wet is classic PNW October.   Don't like quoting you... but you are the first person to jump on someone for complaining about anything you like.   So the irony should be pointed out.   

[Anti Marine Layer]

56 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Thu to Sat could hit 80 with Friday being the best chance right now.

 

Flee to the coast. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It was a beautiful last day of September in the South Washington Cascades.

Beautiful snaps. I wish I was going to be in the PNW these next two beautiful weeks of golden autumn. But instead I’ll be on a deeply unsatisfying trip. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Beautiful snaps. I wish I was going to be in the PNW these next two beautiful weeks of golden autumn. But instead I’ll be on a deeply unsatisfying trip. 

Oklahoma?

I told my wife today that the colors are going to be great this year.   You could see it coming on the drive to Bellingham.   And the trees don't look stressed now so should be able to put on a show.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Oklahoma?

I told my wife today that the colors are going to be great this year.   You could see it coming on the drive to Bellingham.   And the trees don't look stressed now so should be able to put on a show.

Kansas City, Tulsa, back to KC, on to DC, up to New York, and then over to Boston. Going to be exhausting.

[NWbyNW]

Beautiful day.  It hit 63F after much of the morning hovering around 50F.  Found these clouds neat as well as the bigger front to the north.

 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Kansas City, Tulsa, back to KC, on to DC, up to New York, and then over to Boston. Going to be exhausting.

Uggggh.   I got tired just reading that list.  

[MossMan]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Kansas City, Tulsa, back to KC, on to DC, up to New York, and then over to Boston. Going to be exhausting.

Sounds absolutely awful. But I’m not a big fan of travel though. Don’t mind direct flight to a vacation destination, then straight home…But otherwise that would just drain the life out of me. 

Edited October 2, 2023 by MossMan

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Sounds absolutely awful. But I’m not a big fan of travel though. Don’t mind direct flight to a vacation destination, then straight home…But otherwise that would just drain the life out of me. 

At least the flight home is non-stop. Can't wait until October 15th. My wife totally hijacked this trip...lol. 

[T-Town]

Fun cirrus. 

[MossMan]

I believe this was December of 1990 but cannot confirm. Definitely flat roof era at the lake house before the pitched roof was added in 1997. My Grandpa liked to make a snowman out of the snow shoveled from the roof. And here is the original lake house cabin that my grandparents built before it was added onto several times throughout the years. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Taking the boat out Saturday then trading off with my sons and their friends.   That will be a record for us boating in 7 different months in one season.    It will be interesting to see if we can repeat next year with an early spring being likely.   

Have fun! Gotta take advantage of days like this that don’t come often in October.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Flee to the coast. 

I might do that on Saturday. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

3 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm sooo ready for some wet windy fall weather. Sure today is nice because it is crisp but I'm over the warm weather. 

Welcome back man!  Missed having you on here!!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If October does end up dry I may try to squeeze in one more river float. Probably won't do the Willamette again, but might do the McKenzie... Or Clackamas...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like we could get about 1/2" of rain with this next system. Better than nothing. 

[Gradient Keeper]

After 12 days with the Covid crap I feel I've turned the corner and finally getting some energy back too. Anyhow. Welcome back @MR.SNOWMIZER

Here's the 00z GFS 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly

00z ECMWF in 50 minutes

[Snownerd3000]

 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

 

If you are referencing water off our coast... its impact on our local weather is really only a warm season thing.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

After 12 days with the Covid crap I feel I've turned the corner and finally getting some energy back too. Anyhow. Welcome back @MR.SNOWMIZER

12 days... that sucks man.   I have had it 3 times now and it seems to go on forever.    Glad to hear you are improving.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

7 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

 

El Nino weakening already. 

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12 days... that sucks man.   I have had it 3 times now and it seems to go on forever.    Glad to hear you are improving.  

Thanks. Just have the leftover cough, stuffed up, and drained of energy often.

6z GFS in 4 hours 24 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Anti Marine Layer said:

El Nino weakening already. 

That's what I was thinking too. Hmmm.... !!!!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

El Nino weakening already. 

The water in the ENSO region has been holding steady for months... just slight changes in both directions on that 7-day change map.

Here is the actual SSTA map:

 

[Phil]

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Welcome back!

Still in WA?    You said you were moving the last we heard. 

Be glad you aren't in MN.  They canceled the Twin Cities marathon today due to excessive heat.   It was in the 90s with dewpoint near 70.    Then highs in the 40s by the middle of the week. 

In other words, a typical summer day here.

4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Kansas City, Tulsa, back to KC, on to DC, up to New York, and then over to Boston. Going to be exhausting.

Why the long trip?

No fall color here yet, so you’re probably out of luck if that’s what you’re looking for.

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

 

What changes are u referring to here?

[Phil]

Hopefully this is the last stretch of 80s here.

80+ highs started in late February, first 90+ was in March. It’s been warm/hot for so damn long. Enough already.

[the_convergence_zone]

This next wet period looks like a real good one. And it’s only early October. The weather gods are paying us back for that obnoxious summer. And a double win if we can bag another sunny and warm weekend before it hits. 
 

I got a decent amount of gardening done this weekend, cleared out most of the raised beds, planted garlic, cleaned up my strawberries. Didn’t get around to tearing out the tomatoes. Planted some new peony tubers that I’m excited about. Weeds are coming in fast and furious so gotta keep on top of that. And I didn’t get to my bees either which I can do on one of these 70+ degree afternoons. 

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

What changes are u referring to here?

Wishful thinking. At least for me. Bring back La Nina.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Wishful thinking. At least for me. Bring back La Nina.

I’m so done with La Niña. 3 straight years (and 5/7yrs) of La Niña is enough.

Good riddance. It’s El Niño time.  

[Phil]

Only positive aspect of the 3 year La Niña is it might’ve staved off future La Niña cycles for the next 5-10 years.

Previous 3+ year Niña (or just -ENSO) cycles tended to preclude future La Niñas for at least 5 years, sometimes close to a decade.

54/55 - 56/57: No La Niña for 8 years (64/65). The 13 year stretch between 1957/58 - 1969/70 featured 6 El Niños and 1 La Niña. 

73/74 - 75/76: No La Niña for 8 years (83/84). 4 El Niños that stretch.

83/84 - 85/86: The following 9 years featured 5 El Niños and just 1 La Niña (88/89). Next niña would not occur until 1995/96, so that’s another 7 year wait.

98/99-00/01: No La Niña for 5 years (05/06) and it barely met threshold.

20/21-22/23: TBD 

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Only positive aspect of the 3 year La Niña is it might’ve staved off future La Niña cycles for the next 5-10 years.

Previous 3+ year Niña (or just -ENSO) cycles tended to preclude future La Niñas for at least 5 years, sometimes close to a decade.

54/55 - 56/57: No La Niña for 8yrs (64/65). The 13 years between 57/58 - 69/70 featured 5 El Niños and 1 La Niña. 

73/74 - 75/76: No La Niña for 8yrs (83/84). 4 El Niños that stretch.

83/84 - 85/86: The following 9 years featured 5 El Niños and just 1 La Niña (88/89). Next niña would not occur until 1995/96, another 7 year wait.

98/99-00/01: No La Niña for 5 years (05/06) and it barely met threshold.

20/21-22/23: TBD 

Bleh

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Bleh

Back in 2016 or 2017 I remember pounding the drum for a heavy La Niña cycle in the early 2020s. The intradecadal IPWP oscillations tied to the solar cycle & QBO made it relatively easy to time.

Same forcings that brought it about are flipping now. Approaching solar maximum, IPWP is set to extend eastward after this El Niño for another 5-10 years.

[Phil]

Interestingly, most of the 3+ year niñas followed strong/super niños.

This one is backwards in that respect. The only match to this progression is 1954/55 -1956/57.

Super niño followed 1957/58, but uniquely, did not recoil back into La Niña afterwards.

In fact, the next 13 years only saw 1 weak La Niña, with 6 El Niños in the same span.

[Meatyorologist]

40 minutes ago, Phil said:

Back in 2016 or 2017 I remember pounding the drum for a heavy La Niña cycle in the early 2020s. The intradecadal IPWP oscillations tied to the solar cycle & QBO made it relatively easy to time.

Same forcings that brought it about are flipping now. Approaching solar maximum, IPWP is set to extend eastward after this El Niño for another 5-10 years.

After enduring the 2013-2019 stretch I really don't like to hear that. Especially given the extra decade of warming since then. No subfreezing highs here during that time period and a bunch of missed snow opportunities. Granted there were some ideal setups that we ended up rolling duds on every single time, which is super unfortunate and admittedly rare, but a stretch even half as boring would still test my love of this climate.

(However it did make Feb 2019 all the more special!)

[Cloud]

Appears to be a general agreement we’ll get back to troughing by day 10. So the warmup will be quite brief.