October 2023 Weather in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Kansas City, Tulsa, back to KC, on to DC, up to New York, and then over to Boston. Going to be exhausting.

Uggggh.   I got tired just reading that list.  

[MossMan]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Kansas City, Tulsa, back to KC, on to DC, up to New York, and then over to Boston. Going to be exhausting.

Sounds absolutely awful. But I’m not a big fan of travel though. Don’t mind direct flight to a vacation destination, then straight home…But otherwise that would just drain the life out of me. 

Edited October 2 by MossMan

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Sounds absolutely awful. But I’m not a big fan of travel though. Don’t mind direct flight to a vacation destination, then straight home…But otherwise that would just drain the life out of me. 

At least the flight home is non-stop. Can't wait until October 15th. My wife totally hijacked this trip...lol. 

[T-Town]

Fun cirrus. 

[MossMan]

I believe this was December of 1990 but cannot confirm. Definitely flat roof era at the lake house before the pitched roof was added in 1997. My Grandpa liked to make a snowman out of the snow shoveled from the roof. And here is the original lake house cabin that my grandparents built before it was added onto several times throughout the years. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Taking the boat out Saturday then trading off with my sons and their friends.   That will be a record for us boating in 7 different months in one season.    It will be interesting to see if we can repeat next year with an early spring being likely.   

Have fun! Gotta take advantage of days like this that don’t come often in October.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Flee to the coast. 

I might do that on Saturday. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

3 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm sooo ready for some wet windy fall weather. Sure today is nice because it is crisp but I'm over the warm weather. 

Welcome back man!  Missed having you on here!!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If October does end up dry I may try to squeeze in one more river float. Probably won't do the Willamette again, but might do the McKenzie... Or Clackamas...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like we could get about 1/2" of rain with this next system. Better than nothing. 

[Gradient Keeper]

After 12 days with the Covid crap I feel I've turned the corner and finally getting some energy back too. Anyhow. Welcome back @MR.SNOWMIZER

Here's the 00z GFS 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly

00z ECMWF in 50 minutes

[Snownerd3000]

 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

 

If you are referencing water off our coast... its impact on our local weather is really only a warm season thing.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

After 12 days with the Covid crap I feel I've turned the corner and finally getting some energy back too. Anyhow. Welcome back @MR.SNOWMIZER

12 days... that sucks man.   I have had it 3 times now and it seems to go on forever.    Glad to hear you are improving.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

7 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

 

El Nino weakening already. 

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12 days... that sucks man.   I have had it 3 times now and it seems to go on forever.    Glad to hear you are improving.  

Thanks. Just have the leftover cough, stuffed up, and drained of energy often.

6z GFS in 4 hours 24 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Anti Marine Layer said:

El Nino weakening already. 

That's what I was thinking too. Hmmm.... !!!!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

El Nino weakening already. 

The water in the ENSO region has been holding steady for months... just slight changes in both directions on that 7-day change map.

Here is the actual SSTA map:

 

[Phil]

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Welcome back!

Still in WA?    You said you were moving the last we heard. 

Be glad you aren't in MN.  They canceled the Twin Cities marathon today due to excessive heat.   It was in the 90s with dewpoint near 70.    Then highs in the 40s by the middle of the week. 

In other words, a typical summer day here.

4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Kansas City, Tulsa, back to KC, on to DC, up to New York, and then over to Boston. Going to be exhausting.

Why the long trip?

No fall color here yet, so you’re probably out of luck if that’s what you’re looking for.

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

 

What changes are u referring to here?

[Phil]

Hopefully this is the last stretch of 80s here.

80+ highs started in late February, first 90+ was in March. It’s been warm/hot for so damn long. Enough already.

[the_convergence_zone]

This next wet period looks like a real good one. And it’s only early October. The weather gods are paying us back for that obnoxious summer. And a double win if we can bag another sunny and warm weekend before it hits. 
 

I got a decent amount of gardening done this weekend, cleared out most of the raised beds, planted garlic, cleaned up my strawberries. Didn’t get around to tearing out the tomatoes. Planted some new peony tubers that I’m excited about. Weeds are coming in fast and furious so gotta keep on top of that. And I didn’t get to my bees either which I can do on one of these 70+ degree afternoons. 

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

What changes are u referring to here?

Wishful thinking. At least for me. Bring back La Nina.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Wishful thinking. At least for me. Bring back La Nina.

I’m so done with La Niña. 3 straight years (and 5/7yrs) of La Niña is enough.

Good riddance. It’s El Niño time.  

[Phil]

Only positive aspect of the 3 year La Niña is it might’ve staved off future La Niña cycles for the next 5-10 years.

Previous 3+ year Niña (or just -ENSO) cycles tended to preclude future La Niñas for at least 5 years, sometimes close to a decade.

54/55 - 56/57: No La Niña for 8 years (64/65). The 13 year stretch between 1957/58 - 1969/70 featured 6 El Niños and 1 La Niña. 

73/74 - 75/76: No La Niña for 8 years (83/84). 4 El Niños that stretch.

83/84 - 85/86: The following 9 years featured 5 El Niños and just 1 La Niña (88/89). Next niña would not occur until 1995/96, so that’s another 7 year wait.

98/99-00/01: No La Niña for 5 years (05/06) and it barely met threshold.

20/21-22/23: TBD 

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Only positive aspect of the 3 year La Niña is it might’ve staved off future La Niña cycles for the next 5-10 years.

Previous 3+ year Niña (or just -ENSO) cycles tended to preclude future La Niñas for at least 5 years, sometimes close to a decade.

54/55 - 56/57: No La Niña for 8yrs (64/65). The 13 years between 57/58 - 69/70 featured 5 El Niños and 1 La Niña. 

73/74 - 75/76: No La Niña for 8yrs (83/84). 4 El Niños that stretch.

83/84 - 85/86: The following 9 years featured 5 El Niños and just 1 La Niña (88/89). Next niña would not occur until 1995/96, another 7 year wait.

98/99-00/01: No La Niña for 5 years (05/06) and it barely met threshold.

20/21-22/23: TBD 

Bleh

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Bleh

Back in 2016 or 2017 I remember pounding the drum for a heavy La Niña cycle in the early 2020s. The intradecadal IPWP oscillations tied to the solar cycle & QBO made it relatively easy to time.

Same forcings that brought it about are flipping now. Approaching solar maximum, IPWP is set to extend eastward after this El Niño for another 5-10 years.

[Phil]

Interestingly, most of the 3+ year niñas followed strong/super niños.

This one is backwards in that respect. The only match to this progression is 1954/55 -1956/57.

Super niño followed 1957/58, but uniquely, did not recoil back into La Niña afterwards.

In fact, the next 13 years only saw 1 weak La Niña, with 6 El Niños in the same span.

[Meatyorologist]

40 minutes ago, Phil said:

Back in 2016 or 2017 I remember pounding the drum for a heavy La Niña cycle in the early 2020s. The intradecadal IPWP oscillations tied to the solar cycle & QBO made it relatively easy to time.

Same forcings that brought it about are flipping now. Approaching solar maximum, IPWP is set to extend eastward after this El Niño for another 5-10 years.

After enduring the 2013-2019 stretch I really don't like to hear that. Especially given the extra decade of warming since then. No subfreezing highs here during that time period and a bunch of missed snow opportunities. Granted there were some ideal setups that we ended up rolling duds on every single time, which is super unfortunate and admittedly rare, but a stretch even half as boring would still test my love of this climate.

(However it did make Feb 2019 all the more special!)

[Cloud]

Appears to be a general agreement we’ll get back to troughing by day 10. So the warmup will be quite brief. 

[Cloud]

October related note: Solar eclipse on Oct 14. Annular at Central America. Last great eclipse was Aug 2017. I think most of us remembered that one, especially in OR. 
 

Eugene is in the path but we’ll probably be covered in clouds for this one. 

[MossMan]

.02” so far on the day. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

.02” so far on the day. 

Barely got the pavement damp here.  FEMA has been contacted and we will rebuild.

I dropped fall fertilizer on the lawn last night thinking we would get more than "damp pavement" so I'm now out watering it in so the doggo can go out in the yard again.

 

[Phishy Wx]

9 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12 days... that sucks man.   I have had it 3 times now and it seems to go on forever.    Glad to hear you are improving.  

I've never had it. travel for work 30% the time, go to concerts, sporting events, etc haven't done anything preventative in over a year and a half other than staying up to date on the vax and boosters. I don't know how people just act like it doesn't exist and keep on gettin it.  I think there is a small subset of the population that do not get it.  My mother and I are only people in the world I personally know who have not had it out of all my colleagues, friends, whoever and she is almost 3000 miles away on the other side of the continent. 

[Phishy Wx]

6 hours ago, Phil said:

Interestingly, most of the 3+ year niñas followed strong/super niños.

This one is backwards in that respect. The only match to this progression is 1954/55 -1956/57.

Super niño followed 1957/58, but uniquely, did not recoil back into La Niña afterwards.

In fact, the next 13 years only saw 1 weak La Niña, with 6 El Niños in the same span.

we're kinda in unchartered territory

[Snownerd3000]

10 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

If you are referencing water off our coast... its impact on our local weather is really only a warm season thing.

I just like the overall cooling trend.

[TT-SEA]

58 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I've never had it. travel for work 30% the time, go to concerts, sporting events, etc haven't done anything preventative in over a year and a half other than staying up to date on the vax and boosters. I don't know how people just act like it doesn't exist and keep on gettin it.  I think there is a small subset of the population that do not get it.  My mother and I are only people in the world I personally know who have not had it out of all my colleagues, friends, whoever and she is almost 3000 miles away on the other side of the continent. 

My parents and my son are on that list.   My son did nothing to protect himself and was surrounded by people who were actively sick numerous times in 2021 and 2022 and came out unscathed    Also my wife's dad seems to be totally immune.  

[Snownerd3000]

10 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The water in the ENSO region has been holding steady for months... just slight changes in both directions on that 7-day change map.

Here is the actual SSTA map:

 

 

Interesting takes on the SSTs 

[Snownerd3000]

10 hours ago, Phil said:

What changes are u referring to here?

General cooling trend.  nothing specific

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

 

Interesting takes on the SSTs 

I love Eric's updates... he is doing them daily now.

For some reason though he thinks the water right off our coast actually controls the jet stream.   I don't get it.  

[Snownerd3000]

I met a gal that works for Nutrien while in Maui in May.  I told her I watched his YT videos and she got a kick out of it.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a gorgeous 69/40 yesterday here. Morning fog then mostly sunny with some scenic high clouds moving in toward evening.

Low of 48 this morning. Currently mostly cloudy and 52 with some drizzle in spots. Looking forward to another soaking today before we go back to our default ridging. Although it’s nice to have some light at the end of the tunnel for that already.

[Deweydog]

48 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I love Eric's updates... he is doing them daily now.

For some reason though he thinks the water right off our coast actually controls the jet stream.   I don't get it.  

Makes it sound like I could fill a kiddie pool with lukewarm water and deflect the jet to my liking. The power of preferences!

I do like the fact he seemed on board with the CDFBAWUFBACD index for the first half of the month give/take.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Makes it sound like I could fill a kiddie pool with lukewarm water and deflect the jet to my liking. The power of preferences!

I do like the fact he seemed on board with the CDFBAWUFBACD index for the first half of the month give/take.

I don’t know why but my mind went to jetsking in a pool when I read your post. 

[Deweydog]

Hey J-Dawg, we’re practically neighbors as of yesterday! 

[RentonHill]

23 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Hey J-Dawg, we’re practically neighbors as of yesterday! 

are the new digs a decent upgrade??

[Deweydog]

28 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

are the new digs a decent upgrade??

Eh, not at the moment. It’s a long a** story but we’ll be at chateau de mother in law until probably April or May until the new place is complete.  We break ground next week. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

14 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If October does end up dry I may try to squeeze in one more river float. Probably won't do the Willamette again, but might do the McKenzie... Or Clackamas...

You should try the Sandy!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 12z GFS shows a western trough in the long range. Cold air makes it down to Southern BC. The Cascades get some snow. Before we know it we will be tracking Arctic Blast in no time!  

 

[ShawniganLake]

10 hours ago, Phil said:

I’m so done with La Niña. 3 straight years (and 5/7yrs) of La Niña is enough.

Good riddance. It’s El Niño time.  

Hoping for a coast to coast blow torch type.