October 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Anti Marine Layer]

24 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The 12z GFS shows a western trough in the long range. Cold air makes it down to Southern BC. The Cascades get some snow. Before we know it we will be tracking Arctic Blast in no time!  

 

Looks like a lower 48 trough. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

30 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The 12z GFS shows a western trough in the long range. Cold air makes it down to Southern BC. The Cascades get some snow. Before we know it we will be tracking Arctic Blast in no time!  

 

Certainly not to early for snow in parts of Central Oregon. 

[Phishy Wx]

lol 384h GFS maps

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

My parents and my son are on that list.   My son did nothing to protect himself and was surrounded by people who were actively sick numerous times in 2021 and 2022 and came out unscathed    Also my wife's dad seems to be totally immune.  

It's also possible your son being young and healthy (I am assuming.), was just asymptomatic. 

[RentonHill]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

lol 384h GFS maps

dont pretend like you're too good for them. they may be your only hope this season. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Right now I'd predict October ends up near normal on temps and near to slightly below normal with precip...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 hours ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I just like the overall cooling trend.

As much flack as people are giving you about noticing there has been some cooling in the ENSO regions. There is modeled to be some slight cooling, before the 3.4 region rebounds to about +1.5-1.7 during November and December. At this point I don't see an ONI peaking above 1.5-1.6, so this will be a moderate on the verge of strong Nino, but definitely not a "SUPER" Nino. Interestingly some guidance drops ENSO into near Nina territory by next summer. Would be surprising, but definitely possible. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Some fall color is starting to show in the Harrison Lake area.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

42 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Looks like a lower 48 trough. 

 

34 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Certainly not to early for snow in parts of Central Oregon. 

The 12z GEFS shows a blocking signal up in Alaska in the long range. Still early though for any meaningful Arctic air to make its way down here. But it’s a start.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The 12z GFS shows a western trough in the long range. Cold air makes it down to Southern BC. The Cascades get some snow. Before we know it we will be tracking Arctic Blast in no time!  

 

It would be surprising if we didn’t see a decent continental airmass at some point this month. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

It was looking like PDX had a good shot at their first sub-60 high of the season today, but the rain drizzle is moving in just a little too late. Up to 61 there now. To bad.

Still a chance here with the temp holding at 59.

[ShawniganLake]

Just checking September stats for shawnigan Lake.  Temp was 0.5F above average and rainfall 78% of normal.  So just a little on the warm and dry side of things

[TigerWoodsLibido]

63F and getting cloudy.

[Front Ranger]

10 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

After enduring the 2013-2019 stretch I really don't like to hear that. Especially given the extra decade of warming since then. No subfreezing highs here during that time period and a bunch of missed snow opportunities. Granted there were some ideal setups that we ended up rolling duds on every single time, which is super unfortunate and admittedly rare, but a stretch even half as boring would still test my love of this climate.

(However it did make Feb 2019 all the more special!)

2013-14 and 2016-17 were pretty good winters for cold air in the PNW, and even 2017-18 was far from a dud.

Much worse 5 year stretches out there.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Up to 0.25" and still coming down. Looks like this little event is going to overperform IMBY.

[Phil]

9 hours ago, Cloud said:

October related note: Solar eclipse on Oct 14. Annular at Central America. Last great eclipse was Aug 2017. I think most of us remembered that one, especially in OR. 
 

Eugene is in the path but we’ll probably be covered in clouds for this one. 

I knew one was coming up in April 2024, but had no idea about this one. Interesting!

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I love Eric's updates... he is doing them daily now.

For some reason though he thinks the water right off our coast actually controls the jet stream.   I don't get it.  

Yeah that bugs me too. He’s such a good presenter/communicator, sucks that his message is undermined by a misunderstanding of ocean-atmosphere coupling. 

[Cloud]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

I knew one was coming up in April 2024, but had no idea about this one. Interesting!

Yeah that bugs me too. He’s such a good presenter/communicator, sucks that his message is undermined by a misunderstanding of ocean-atmosphere coupling. 

I didn’t know about it either until my wife asked me last night if I knew about it in a couple weeks.  Naturally my response was “did you meant a lunar eclipse?” — since her side of the family traditionally follows the lunar calendar. “no! Solar!” She says — she knows I’m into these kinda stuff, so I had to do a bit of research

[the_convergence_zone]

Squeezed out 0.01". I may get some more from a convergence zone this afternoon. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's also possible your son being young and healthy (I am assuming.), was just asymptomatic. 

For me it was *much* worse the second time I got it, which I still don’t understand.

Contracted it right at the beginning in April 2020, when basically the entire NE US seaboard was infected, and it was nothing. Just a dry cough and brief low grade fever, like I was dehydrated.

Then caught it again in April this year. Even with 3 jabs and the prior infection, this time it fucking LEVELED me. Worst sore throat imaginable, awful body pains, and chills so bad my teeth were chattering uncontrollably. No respiratory symptoms, but I never get those when sick anyway.

Don’t know if it was viral load, or if I was just more sensitive to that omicron variant. Whatever the reason, I don’t want to go through that again if I can avoid it.

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Squeezed out 0.01". I may get some more from a convergence zone this afternoon. 

Yea, trajectory of this system is not good for C. and N. Sounds. Pretty much shadowed out. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Gonna be a crazy temperature swing later this week. Around 25 degrees warmer. But it looks like we will return to cooler and wetter weather after this coming weekend based on the latest models.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

27 minutes ago, Phil said:

For me it was *much* worse the second time I got it, which I still don’t understand.

Contracted it right at the beginning in April 2020, when basically the entire NE US seaboard was infected, and it was nothing. Just a dry cough and brief low grade fever, like I was dehydrated.

Then caught it again in April this year. Even with 3 jabs and the prior infection, this time it ******* LEVELED me. Worst sore throat imaginable, awful body pains, and chills so bad my teeth were chattering uncontrollably. No respiratory symptoms, but I never get those when sick anyway.

Don’t know if it was viral load, or if I was just more sensitive to that omicron variant. Whatever the reason, I don’t want to go through that again if I can avoid it.

From the anecdotal conversations I have had the more recent variants are more similar to the flu, as in pretty much everyone who gets them experiences around the same level of shitty symptoms. Not a lot of asymptomatic cases as we saw in the beginning of the pandemic for whatever reason. 

[Phishy Wx]

interesting article, worth the read, imo

 

 

 

[Snownerd3000]

2 hours ago, RentonHill said:

dont pretend like you're too good for them. they may be your only hope this season. 

I'm not too good for them. Give me the 6 foot snow falls in DT Seattle

[Cloud]

30 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

interesting article, worth the read, imo

 

 

 

It’s Judah season once again!
 

[Cascadia_Wx]

18 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Gonna be a crazy temperature swing later this week. Around 25 degrees warmer. But it looks like we will return to cooler and wetter weather after this coming weekend based on the latest models.

Already five degrees too cool for the high today. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Rain is still falling. Up to 0.34". Max so far today: 55.2˚F. Currently 54.0˚F so 55 may be it for the day.

[Cloud]

Appears SEA will likely pull in a sub-60 day today. It's raw out there today holding onto the mid-50s.

[RentonHill]

Real soaking drizzle now

[RentonHill]

18z kinda blows

[Snownerd3000]

1 hour ago, Cloud said:

It’s Judah season once again!
 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, Cloud said:

It’s Judah season once again!
 

His east coast bias is even stronger than Bastardi!  

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, RentonHill said:

18z kinda blows

12z EPS hinted at an immediate return to ridging after a system limps through in about a week as well. Just the sh*t state of our climate these days.

[MossMan]

Raining! 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z EPS hinted at an immediate return to ridging after a system limps through in about a week as well. Just the sh*t state of our climate these days.

Or just a normal progression of ridges and troughs... wet periods and dry periods... which is typical in the PNW in October.  

But don't let me get in the way of doomsday complaining.  

[TT-SEA]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

For me it was *much* worse the second time I got it, which I still don’t understand.

Contracted it right at the beginning in April 2020, when basically the entire NE US seaboard was infected, and it was nothing. Just a dry cough and brief low grade fever, like I was dehydrated.

Then caught it again in April this year. Even with 3 jabs and the prior infection, this time it ******* LEVELED me. Worst sore throat imaginable, awful body pains, and chills so bad my teeth were chattering uncontrollably. No respiratory symptoms, but I never get those when sick anyway.

Don’t know if it was viral load, or if I was just more sensitive to that omicron variant. Whatever the reason, I don’t want to go through that again if I can avoid it.

It doesn't seem like getting it provides much protection against the next variant that comes along.

[BLI snowman]

7 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Hey J-Dawg, we’re practically neighbors as of yesterday! 

What side of the 5 you be on?

[Meatyorologist]

12z Euro looked snazzy D8-10

[LowerGarfield]

4 hours ago, Phil said:

For me it was *much* worse the second time I got it, which I still don’t understand.

Contracted it right at the beginning in April 2020, when basically the entire NE US seaboard was infected, and it was nothing. Just a dry cough and brief low grade fever, like I was dehydrated.

Then caught it again in April this year. Even with 3 jabs and the prior infection, this time it ******* LEVELED me. Worst sore throat imaginable, awful body pains, and chills so bad my teeth were chattering uncontrollably. No respiratory symptoms, but I never get those when sick anyway.

Don’t know if it was viral load, or if I was just more sensitive to that omicron variant. Whatever the reason, I don’t want to go through that again if I can avoid it.

For non vaxed spouse, she had a moderately strong case of Delta. Not bad enough to be hospitalized but she had a very time sleeping, was very ill for about 4-5 days, and our neighbor had it also. That was from a super spreader event. I had the J&J like 5 weeks before so I was at peak immunity for that other than maybe 6 hours of a very mild cold. Son was fine.

The Dec version of Omicron hit me harder than my spouse (been boosted every year and just recovered from the new one on Fri). All of us were sick for about 1-2 days with myself getting it last (so probably from school). We had Omicron once before but none of us really had symptoms other than the test.

As for the weather, it is 62F inside, 67F and maybe a bit warmer because a cat decided to sleep on my arm as I'm trying to type.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Rain has stopped. Got 0.43". Better than I fared for most of those deluges that soaked points south.

Didn’t find any chanterelles on my weekend forays, but did find a cave. Didn’t go in because there is a ledge at the entrance I was not 100% sure I could get back up. Will have to go back with a rope and a friend some time.

[LowerGarfield]

Hoping the rain here holds off for just a bit longer as my son is at a running club outside. Will be picking him up soon and hoping they don't get drenched. After 630pm it can rain a bunch. But I would like it to stay dry until there. 

[LowerGarfield]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Rain has stopped. Got 0.43". Better than I fared for most of those deluges that soaked points south.

Didn’t find any chanterelles on my weekend forays, but did find a cave. Didn’t go in because there is a ledge at the entrance I was not 100% sure I could get back up. Will have to go back with a rope and a friend some time.

Did you find your namesake plant this time?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, LowerGarfield said:

Did you find your namesake plant this time?

Yes but well past fruiting stage.

[Cold Snap]

Up to 0.24” of rain for the day so far. Currently 56 after a high of 58.

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

What side of the 5 you be on?

We’re pretty much in Fisher’s Landing right now. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

We’re pretty much in Fisher’s Landing right now. 

Close to the Walgreens over there!

[TT-SEA]

33 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

We’re pretty much in Fisher’s Landing right now. 

Why the move?   Did you take a big interest rate hit?

[The Cats Meow]

Still raining here in the Puyallup Valley and 58.

 

Looks like some amazing weather for Oktoberfest at the Puyallup Fairgrounds at the end of the week.

 

[Deweydog]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Why the move?   Did you take a big interest rate hit?

It’s a long story, but the family situation took a lot of interesting turns in the last 12 months or so and the Spokane prospect fell through. Then we had an opportunity come up as we have a personal relationship with a local builder down here and they had a couple lots we really liked. So we went all in, putting the current place on the market which we figured in the current climate would take a few months to offload. Yeah, it took four days to sell and closed today. For now we’re camping in Jesse’s backyard.

[Dave]

16 hours ago, Cloud said:

October related note: Solar eclipse on Oct 14. Annular at Central America. Last great eclipse was Aug 2017. I think most of us remembered that one, especially in OR. 
 

Eugene is in the path but we’ll probably be covered in clouds for this one. 

Annular eclipses are total duds anyway. We had another one that put Eugene almost in "totality" (which isn't really a thing for annular eclipses) about 15 years ago. I viewed it with eclipse glasses and it was not that interesting. Most people walking around didn't even notice the slight decrease in sunlight. It was like a cloud passing by. Total eclipses on the other hand, are absolutely breathtaking and well worth getting inside the totality area.