October 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Skagit Weather]

Not to open up this can of worms, but it's relevant and timely. I feel like Cliff continues to get more and more disconnected from reality in his crusade to combat climate misinformation.

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/10/is-much-of-washington-state.html

In general I appreciate the end goal of trying to hold journalists (and government agencies) to a high standard and tamp down the hype (even if in general he does it quite poorly), but there's so many strange conclusions drawn in this blog that I think he's gone off the deep end.

His argument is that the Cascades couldn't possibly be under extreme drought because streamflow is near normal and apples are growing well. Except if you look at his streamflow map it's clear many of the rivers and streams in the extreme drought area (especially in the North Cascades) are in the 10-25% percentile. And this is immediately after some heavier rain last week.  If you look an absolute precipitation departure map from the past water year, it matches pretty clearly with the drought monitor.

If you look at the percentage departure it's a little less clear, but 50-80% of average precip over the last year definitely seems like it would be a somewhat significant drought.

Hoquiam just measured its driest water year on record (as did BLI even considering possible sensor issues) and he argues this away basically as the idea that there aren't many people around Hoquiam complaining about the lack of rain. Many long term stations in the Cascades saw a top 10 (if not top 5) dry water year. Just because there are not direct impacts on people in our relatively water rich region when drought gets bad does not mean the drought doesn't exist. As someone who spends a lot of time out in the forests, the damage to the ecosystem is real. Trees and plants are dying. Salmon were not able to make it up some creeks this year because of lack of stream flow. Some reservoirs did not reach full pool this summer because of the rapid snow melt off.

The drought monitor shouldn't be taken as gospel, and I agree that its language can be overstated (having only options for abnormally dry, moderate, severe, extreme, and exceptional seems a bit like hyperbole), but arguing that the area is not facing a drought is ridiculous. Of course if we see seasonal to slightly above average rainfall and the drought monitor doesn't change, then I could see more of an argument for it being in error.

[Phishy Wx]

Euro will be the result.  I don't buy the GEM on this side

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

Not to open up this can of worms, but it's relevant and timely. I feel like Cliff continues to get more and more disconnected from reality in his crusade to combat climate misinformation.

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/10/is-much-of-washington-state.html

In general I appreciate the end goal of trying to hold journalists (and government agencies) to a high standard and tamp down the hype (even if in general he does it quite poorly), but there's so many strange conclusions drawn in this blog that I think he's gone off the deep end.

His argument is that the Cascades couldn't possibly be under extreme drought because streamflow is near normal and apples are growing well. Except if you look at his streamflow map it's clear many of the rivers and streams in the extreme drought area (especially in the North Cascades) are in the 10-25% percentile. And this is immediately after some heavier rain last week.  If you look an absolute precipitation departure map from the past water year, it matches pretty clearly with the drought monitor.

If you look at the percentage departure it's a little less clear, but 50-80% of average precip over the last year definitely seems like it would be a somewhat significant drought.

Hoquiam just measured its driest water year on record (as did BLI even considering possible sensor issues) and he argues this away basically as the idea that there aren't many people around Hoquiam complaining about the lack of rain. Many long term stations in the Cascades saw a top 10 (if not top 5) dry water year. Just because there are not direct impacts on people in our relatively water rich region when drought gets bad does not mean the drought doesn't exist. As someone who spends a lot of time out in the forests, the damage to the ecosystem is real. Trees and plants are dying. Salmon were not able to make it up some creeks this year because of lack of stream flow. Some reservoirs did not reach full pool this summer because of the rapid snow melt off.

The drought monitor shouldn't be taken as gospel, and I agree that its language can be overstated (having only options for abnormally dry, moderate, severe, extreme, and exceptional seems a bit like hyperbole), but arguing that the area is not facing a drought is ridiculous. Of course if we see seasonal to slightly above average rainfall and the drought monitor doesn't change, then I could see more of an argument for it being in error.

that dude has been 'off the deep end' for years

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

It’s coming! 

We need an alert like this whenever the GFS shows an Arctic Blast!

[Phil]

32 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

that dude has been 'off the deep end' for years

Meh, that post was more factual than most of drivel spewed by alarmist grifters these days.

Not sure I agree with his premise, but it’s a well-made point.

[Phil]

A few days ago I said the modeled pattern reminded me of 2015. I retract that statement now..seems guidance has trended substantially more meridional over the past few days.

[Phil]

6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z EPS shows the quick collapse of our ridge and then transitions to what looks it would be a fairly wet pattern with troughing offshore through the end of the run.    Also shows persistent troughing in the eastern part of the country.   That seems early for Nino year but maybe that was what @Philwas referring to yesterday with the tropical charts.

Save that pattern for winter. Would be epic here in J/F/M. Won’t do much of anything the autumn.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

66F and partly cloudy. Nice day. Looks like we got down to 51F overnight.

[YahRaEl]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Save that pattern for winter. Would be epic here in J/F/M. Won’t do much of anything the autumn.

 

[Phishy Wx]

 

 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

Not to open up this can of worms, but it's relevant and timely. I feel like Cliff continues to get more and more disconnected from reality in his crusade to combat climate misinformation.

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/10/is-much-of-washington-state.html

In general I appreciate the end goal of trying to hold journalists (and government agencies) to a high standard and tamp down the hype (even if in general he does it quite poorly), but there's so many strange conclusions drawn in this blog that I think he's gone off the deep end.

His argument is that the Cascades couldn't possibly be under extreme drought because streamflow is near normal and apples are growing well. Except if you look at his streamflow map it's clear many of the rivers and streams in the extreme drought area (especially in the North Cascades) are in the 10-25% percentile. And this is immediately after some heavier rain last week.  If you look an absolute precipitation departure map from the past water year, it matches pretty clearly with the drought monitor.

If you look at the percentage departure it's a little less clear, but 50-80% of average precip over the last year definitely seems like it would be a somewhat significant drought.

Hoquiam just measured its driest water year on record (as did BLI even considering possible sensor issues) and he argues this away basically as the idea that there aren't many people around Hoquiam complaining about the lack of rain. Many long term stations in the Cascades saw a top 10 (if not top 5) dry water year. Just because there are not direct impacts on people in our relatively water rich region when drought gets bad does not mean the drought doesn't exist. As someone who spends a lot of time out in the forests, the damage to the ecosystem is real. Trees and plants are dying. Salmon were not able to make it up some creeks this year because of lack of stream flow. Some reservoirs did not reach full pool this summer because of the rapid snow melt off.

The drought monitor shouldn't be taken as gospel, and I agree that its language can be overstated (having only options for abnormally dry, moderate, severe, extreme, and exceptional seems a bit like hyperbole), but arguing that the area is not facing a drought is ridiculous. Of course if we see seasonal to slightly above average rainfall and the drought monitor doesn't change, then I could see more of an argument for it being in error.

Serious question here because I don't know the answer.    If an area averages 120 inches of rain per year and gets 100 inches of rain in a year which is a departure of 20 inches... is that really drought even if there was no noticeable impact because the area averages more rain than is needed to maintain water supply and vegetation health?   Andrew has mentioned this in the past saying a large rainfall deficit is still very wet in his area.   

I have noticed many signs of drought in my area because trees are dying.   I assume this is because recent summers have been so much warmer and drier than normal and would not be caused (for example) by getting 15 inches less rain in the winter but followed by a decently wet and cool summer.     In other words... we could run a large deficit and have no issues if the deficit was in the winter.   The reality is the opposite has been true in recent years and it's been causing significant vegetation stress.   Our HOA had the state look at our area and assess all the dead trees and they said the forest had grown too dense and was naturally thinning as the trees compete for less water being available during the growing season than when the trees grew up.   

 

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

 

I mean yeah its probably identifying the El Nino pattern and all, but Accuweather is a crap source

[Phil]

Finally got my PWS ready for winter. Replaced T/H sensor, installed an upgraded ultrasonic anemometer on a new mast w/ sturdier guy wires, and cleaned out the fan housing. Crazy amount of gunk buildup in there, should breathe much easier now.

Also replaced the UV sensor which was starting to drift. Less relevant for winter but needed to be done.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Would be nice for Oregon since recent systems have been focused farther north.   

Our area did better than most of western Oregon in September. Solidly wet. 

[YahRaEl]

25 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I mean yeah its probably identifying the El Nino pattern and all, but Accuweather is a crap source

 

[Kolk1604]

Just now, ChristheElohim said:

 

Theweatherforums.com...............  

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

 

and?

[YahRaEl]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

and?

AccuWeather does better than NWS. But no one seems to throw them out. TWC definitely one of the best in my experience sometimes be against the models and still be correct. 

[iFred]

5 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Unfortunately, it is probably inherent in the faceless anonymity of the medium.

I remember how optimistic the voices of many Internet pioneers were in the late 80’s and early 90’s. There were a few voices sounding notes of caution, pointing out that radio and television both had similar optimism in their early years, optimism that was not borne out in reality. Turns out those dissenting voices were, in many ways, correct.

Now they just find the IP that the Canadian troll is posting from and use ufw to limit their speeds to 15kbps or just use iptables to drop their traffic.

[Timmy Supercell]

32 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

 

Lots of different things I'm getting on what this El Nino will do here. The news tells me "dry" in my area, but these maps show normal on both temp and snowfall. I'd be cool with a so-so winter, and mixed with some weekly rains thrown in. 

Though I haven't been here long enough to judge KY weather, but seems like early Fall is about my driest time of the year. It can rain a lot in the winter even if it doesn't snow. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS is generally warm... but my sense is this will end up being warm and wet even through the precip departure map doesn't show that yet.   It also shows a fairly persistent eastern trough.  

[Skagit Weather]

38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Serious question here because I don't know the answer.    If an area averages 120 inches of rain per year and gets 100 inches of rain in a year which is a departure of 20 inches... is that really drought even if there was no noticeable impact because the area averages more rain than is needed to maintain water supply and vegetation health?   Andrew has mentioned this in the past saying a large rainfall deficit is still very wet in his area.   

I have noticed many signs of drought in my area because trees are dying.   I assume this is because recent summers have been so much warmer and drier than normal and would not be caused (for example) by getting 15 inches less rain in the winter but followed by a decently wet and cool summer.     In other words... we could run a large deficit and have no issues if the deficit was in the winter.   The reality is the opposite has been true in recent years and it's been causing significant vegetation stress.   Our HOA had the state look at our area and assess all the dead trees and they said the forest had grown too dense and was naturally thinning as the trees compete for less water being available during the growing season than when the trees grew up.   

 

I'm not technically an expert, but I have talked with some forest specialists in my work and the way I understand it, temporality is more important for vegetation than accumulation. If an area that gets 100" a year got 10-20% less precipitation every month than average, the flora most likely wouldn't be too affected. But if an area had 30% above average precipitation November-April and then got no rain May-October, but still ended up above average for the year (or water year), then it would have a significantly larger impact.

Basically the issue with this past year is we transitioned immediately from summer to winter which meant the trees/vegetation were not able to absorb much moisture before shutting down for winter. I was out in the low elevation forests of the North Cascades in March and April, and it was remarkable how dry the soil was (even immediately after rain). Then we transitioned from winter to summer just as rapidly with precipitation shutting off. The warm temperature and explosion of new growth in late April/early May, just as the rains shut off, led to historically low ground water which further stressed the plants as we entered the sunnier, warmer, and dryer than average summer.

Many of our trees are uniquely adapted to the PNW climate. They grow quite large with helps store water for the dry periods. Unlike deciduous trees, low elevation conifers here do most of their growing in the spring, fall, and to a lesser extent the winter because in the summer it can be so dry that they close their stomata to conserve water. So a dry summer is not super impactful, but a dry spring, summer, and fall can be fatal. If the rains had waited until late October like last year, then after our dry spring it would have been a worst case scenario, but of course 2022 was highly unusual. The rains have returned in 2023 and although many areas are still starved for moisture, consistent rains over the next couple weeks will alleviate much of the stress from this most recent dry stretch.

But to answer your question, I think you're right in saying that departures in winter precipitation (even upwards of 20") are not nearly as important as rainfall and climate the rest of the year (especially if snowfall ends up near average/doesn't melt out extremely early).

[Snownerd3000]

1 hour ago, ChristheElohim said:

 

What is the source for this? Also is this based on seasonal forecasts like the winter one just posted for Accuweather or the general daily/weekly forecast?

[Deweydog]

3 hours ago, MossMan said:

Y’all are family in my book…Some of you I have known now for nearly 20 years now! Lots of ups and downs both with the weather, the forum, and life in general. But this forum has been the one constant in life that you can always depend on being there. Let’s rock this miserable upcoming El Niño together! 
Oh and it’s coming…In November! After that who knows. 

100% this. There’s a ton of stability and it’s tough to come up with things that were more enduring over the last 18 years or so. When I got the job here we had two kids that were still primarily shiitting in their pants and now we’re practically empty nesters. Cray cray.

Oh and it’s definitely not coming. Unless it does, and in that case it’s coming.

[TT-SEA]

41 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I'm not technically an expert, but I have talked with some forest specialists in my work and the way I understand it, temporality is more important for vegetation than accumulation. If an area that gets 100" a year got 10-20% less precipitation every month than average, the flora most likely wouldn't be too affected. But if an area had 30% above average precipitation November-April and then got no rain May-October, but still ended up above average for the year (or water year), then it would have a significantly larger impact.

Basically the issue with this past year is we transitioned immediately from summer to winter which meant the trees/vegetation were not able to absorb much moisture before shutting down for winter. I was out in the low elevation forests of the North Cascades in March and April, and it was remarkable how dry the soil was (even immediately after rain). Then we transitioned from winter to summer just as rapidly with precipitation shutting off. The warm temperature and explosion of new growth in late April/early May, just as the rains shut off, led to historically low ground water which further stressed the plants as we entered the sunnier, warmer, and dryer than average summer.

Many of our trees are uniquely adapted to the PNW climate. They grow quite large with helps store water for the dry periods. Unlike deciduous trees, low elevation conifers here do most of their growing in the spring, fall, and to a lesser extent the winter because in the summer it can be so dry that they close their stomata to conserve water. So a dry summer is not super impactful, but a dry spring, summer, and fall can be fatal. If the rains had waited until late October like last year, then after our dry spring it would have been a worst case scenario, but of course 2022 was highly unusual. The rains have returned in 2023 and although many areas are still starved for moisture, consistent rains over the next couple weeks will alleviate much of the stress from this most recent dry stretch.

But to answer your question, I think you're right in saying that departures in winter precipitation (even upwards of 20") are not nearly as important as rainfall and climate the rest of the year (especially if snowfall ends up near average/doesn't melt out extremely early).

Great explanation... thanks for the insight.

My sense was last year was very hard on the trees around here with the endless hot summer and then abrupt shift to winter.  

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

100% this. There’s a ton of stability and it’s tough to come up with things that were more enduring over the last 18 years or so. When I got the job here we had two kids that were still primarily shiitting in their pants and now we’re practically empty nesters. Cray cray.

Oh and it’s definitely not coming. Unless it does, and in that case it’s coming.

Totally agree.  

[MossMan]

37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Totally agree.  

Think I announced the birth of both kids here before I did anywhere else

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF really focuses the system on Monday to the south.   

What else is new?

[Meatyorologist]

15 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Think I announced the birth of both kids here before I did anywhere else

Sounds like you know what's truly important in your life!

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

I'm not technically an expert, but I have talked with some forest specialists in my work and the way I understand it, temporality is more important for vegetation than accumulation. If an area that gets 100" a year got 10-20% less precipitation every month than average, the flora most likely wouldn't be too affected. But if an area had 30% above average precipitation November-April and then got no rain May-October, but still ended up above average for the year (or water year), then it would have a significantly larger impact.

Basically the issue with this past year is we transitioned immediately from summer to winter which meant the trees/vegetation were not able to absorb much moisture before shutting down for winter. I was out in the low elevation forests of the North Cascades in March and April, and it was remarkable how dry the soil was (even immediately after rain). Then we transitioned from winter to summer just as rapidly with precipitation shutting off. The warm temperature and explosion of new growth in late April/early May, just as the rains shut off, led to historically low ground water which further stressed the plants as we entered the sunnier, warmer, and dryer than average summer.

Many of our trees are uniquely adapted to the PNW climate. They grow quite large with helps store water for the dry periods. Unlike deciduous trees, low elevation conifers here do most of their growing in the spring, fall, and to a lesser extent the winter because in the summer it can be so dry that they close their stomata to conserve water. So a dry summer is not super impactful, but a dry spring, summer, and fall can be fatal. If the rains had waited until late October like last year, then after our dry spring it would have been a worst case scenario, but of course 2022 was highly unusual. The rains have returned in 2023 and although many areas are still starved for moisture, consistent rains over the next couple weeks will alleviate much of the stress from this most recent dry stretch.

But to answer your question, I think you're right in saying that departures in winter precipitation (even upwards of 20") are not nearly as important as rainfall and climate the rest of the year (especially if snowfall ends up near average/doesn't melt out extremely early).

Fascinating. This makes so much sense, thanks for this insight.

[Timmy Supercell]

4 hours ago, MossMan said:

It’s coming! 

 

[YahRaEl]

1 hour ago, Snownerd3000 said:

What is the source for this? Also is this based on seasonal forecasts like the winter one just posted for Accuweather or the general daily/weekly forecast?

Daily/Weekly Forecast

[T-Town]

67.5 degrees here. Warmer than I expected.  

[Phishy Wx]

[TT-SEA]

24 minutes ago, T-Town said:

67.5 degrees here. Warmer than I expected.  

68/53 at SEA which is now a +3 day.

[YahRaEl]

66.5° for the high here at Eastside Tacoma 

[MV_snow]

7 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

some non-weather forums that I'm on are brutal, this place is tame by comparison and I mean that in a good way.  It's a nice retreat and a relatively stable corner of the internet, imo

Totally agree. As mostly a lurker here, I’ve never found the conversations to be that disrespectful especially compared to elsewhere on the Internet. Even the trolling and s**tposting is mostly done in good fun. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I consider all of y'all my dear friends. I vaguely remember some drunk posts to y'all from this past summer while on the cruise ship. I wouldn't be like that with just anyone.

I never would've experienced the kindness of @SilverFallsAndrew & @MR.SNOWMIZER if I hadn't found this place.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I consider all of y'all my dear friends. I vaguely remember some drunk posts to y'all from this past summer while on the cruise ship. I wouldn't be like that with just anyone.

I never would've experienced the kindness of @SilverFallsAndrew & @MR.SNOWMIZER if I hadn't found this place.

Those cruise ship posts were hilarious... loved it.