October 2023 Weather in the PNW

[YahRaEl]

Looks like it may get a little foggy tonight/tomorrow morning

[YahRaEl]

1 hour ago, Timmy Supercell said:

 

I think everyone better prep something big is coming. I'm telling y'all now thru end of 2025 is gonna be crap in many ways even in regards to weather things are gonna be wild!!!. 

[MossMan]

14 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

I think everyone better prep something big is coming. I'm telling y'all now thru end of 2025 is gonna be crap in many ways even in regards to weather things are gonna be wild!!!. 

[Cold Snap]

64/50 for the day today for me. Was actually a pretty nice day. Looks like I could be adding one more 80 degree day to my total this Saturday.

[MossMan]

Lovely evening at soccer practice! Funny that my evenings to take the kids to practice so far this fall has been dry while most of my wife’s evenings to take them it has been pouring! 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

I predict it's about to go up, in a hurry!

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Lovely evening at soccer practice! Funny that my evenings to take the kids to practice so far this fall has been dry while most of my wife’s evenings to take them it has been pouring! 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Mostly cloudy early with some drizzle in spots and a mild start yesterday, then partly cloudy later on. 68/54 spread. The low temp was recorded in the evening.

Morning low clouds and some afternoon sun today, 67/51 spread. 

Looks like the warmth is on for the next 7-10 days or more, with only a brief break early next week. The upcoming pattern isn’t normal October ups and downs, it’s a continuation of the high end to near record breaking warmth that has been dominating the weather around here since late April. At the moment it appears that October could have some very significant positive anomalies throughout the region, come mid month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice storm tonight. TUL had 1.60” of rain in one hour. The best moment in the vid is near the end. It’s only 24 sec.

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice storm tonight. TUL had 1.60” of rain in one hour. The best moment in the vid is near the end. It’s only 24 sec.

Awesome!! Reminds me of the time I flew into Minneapolis, the rain and lightning was insane when we were driving from the airport to my uncles place. That was also in October. 

[TT-SEA]

In early September predictions were made about an all time warm September.    But if October does end up warm then it probably bodes well for winter.

[Snownerd3000]

Let PNW cook

[BLI snowman]

Definitely doesn't look like we'll be following the typical early season Nino script yet, but like Jamie Lee Curtis we have to survive Halloween to find out.

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Definitely doesn't look like we'll be following the typical early season Nino script yet, but like Jamie Lee Curtis we have to survive Halloween to find out.

[Cold Snap]

Not weather related but I’m pretty sure there’s a high speed chase going down in Duvall right now. I hear helicopters and a car just came speeding past my house with a bunch of police cars following it.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice storm tonight. TUL had 1.60” of rain in one hour. The best moment in the vid is near the end. It’s only 24 sec.

Whoa that bolt was mega close!

00z ECMWF (Halloween) in 649 hours

[Chewbacca Defense]

3 hours ago, MossMan said:

Lovely evening at soccer practice! Funny that my evenings to take the kids to practice so far this fall has been dry while most of my wife’s evenings to take them it has been pouring! 

We have many fond and a few not so fond memories out at the soccer park with our son.  The park was positioned perfectly to get the full brunt of any frasier-type outflows and the full brunt of the south winds during fall storms.  We learned early on to keep extra jackets and towels in the back of our car.

I've had my own share of fun weather experiences.  Snow, driving rain, and insane windstorms.  Unfortunately our extremely dry summer may have finished my year early with a torn meniscus from the rock hard dry and very uneven fields.

[lowlandsnow]

5 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

Pretty impressive melt season in the Arctic 6th lowest extent minimum on record (JAXA) only 900,000 km2 from 2012

[Dan the Weatherman]

3 hours ago, MossMan said:

MacGruber!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Arctic Sea Ice 2023

Not the best, but not as dismal as 2012 too. Nice uptick occurring now.

[lowlandsnow]

7 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Arctic Sea Ice 2023

Not the best, but not as dismal as 2012 too. Nice uptick occurring now.

Worse than 2021 and 2022 though.

[Snownerd3000]

1 hour ago, Cold Snap said:

Not weather related but I’m pretty sure there’s a high speed chase going down in Duvall right now. I hear helicopters and a car just came speeding past my house with a bunch of police cars following it.

Reading this, I have the police chase music from the opening scene in Goonies playing in my head. It's the Fratellis! 

[Meatyorologist]

Sea ice and glaciers are some of the best and most reliable indicators of industrial era climate change. Hence why I'm hesitant to believe some of the drivel posted on this forum.

Their consistency and acceleration are too reliable. Not to mention that global average temperatures, accross multiple datasets, are all steadily rising and regularly breaking record highs. I'm sure Hunga Tonga will set the example for a decade or two before we eventually rise above our current temperatures once again come the 2030s or so.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Definitely doesn't look like we'll be following the typical early season Nino script yet, but like Jamie Lee Curtis we have to survive Halloween to find out.

The weather has been all kinds of strange this year. I’ve already thrown out the script.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 51F with a beautiful moon and stars out there.

[SnarkyGoblin]

Lots of fog this morning in Seattle.  A weather event I remember happening much more often as a kid walking to school in the PNW.

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Lots of fog this morning in Seattle.  A weather event I remember happening much more often as a kid walking to school in the PNW.

Fog usually happens when there is ridging and not when the weather is active.    More ridging back then?  

[TT-SEA]

6 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Sea ice and glaciers are some of the best and most reliable indicators of industrial era climate change. Hence why I'm hesitant to believe some of the drivel posted on this forum.

Their consistency and acceleration are too reliable. Not to mention that global average temperatures, accross multiple datasets, are all steadily rising and regularly breaking record highs. I'm sure Hunga Tonga will set the example for a decade or two before we eventually rise above our current temperatures once again come the 2030s or so.

Is there anyone on here who doesn't believe the climate is warming?   That does not seem to be debatable... only the causes.   One thing to consider is that glaciers and sea ice would be in a shrinking phase now as part of the rebound from the LIA regardless of human involvement.    I am pretty sure we are accelerating that process through,. 

[TT-SEA]

06Z GFS for the Monday/Tuesday system.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Very dense fog out there this morning and a low of 49. 

[MossMan]

Soupy. 

[the_convergence_zone]

No fog here, the sun is about to get over the fog bank to the east. I can see the port as well but downtown is locked in. 

 

[MossMan]

37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

06Z GFS for the Monday/Tuesday system.

Was originally going to take the boat over to Orondo for storage on this coming Tuesday, but after seeing how the weather was looking for that day I changed my schedule to do it tomorrow. Should be a lovely drive over! 

Edited October 5, 2023 by MossMan

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Was originally going to take the boat over to Orondo for storage on this coming Tuesday, but after seeing how the weather was looking for that day I changed my schedule to do it tomorrow. Should be a lovely drive over! 

I iwsh i would have gone over stevens yesterday but 405 north in the morning is a parking lot. Sat at the top of blewett for 45 minutes for construction...the worst. 

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

No fog here, the sun is about to get over the fog bank to the east. I can see the port as well but downtown is locked in. 

 

Cool shot from Space Needle showing this...

[Phil]

8 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Sea ice and glaciers are some of the best and most reliable indicators of industrial era climate change. Hence why I'm hesitant to believe some of the drivel posted on this forum.

Their consistency and acceleration are too reliable. Not to mention that global average temperatures, accross multiple datasets, are all steadily rising and regularly breaking record highs. I'm sure Hunga Tonga will set the example for a decade or two before we eventually rise above our current temperatures once again come the 2030s or so.

1) Melting glaciers are revealing mature trees (of multiple species) where none grow today, and human artifacts from the middle Holocene to the Stone Age…what does that tell you about temperatures and glacial extent over the last 10,000 years? Think hard about it.  

2) The factors that affect glaciers and sea ice are many and different. Some glaciers are expanding today. Many are shrinking. The Antarctic *record maximum* ice extent record occurred in 2014. The arctic sea ice extent has been statistically flat since 2012.

You want to talk about drivel? I can link you to over 100 published multiproxy studies establishing the fact the modern warming is NOT unprecedented or even abnormal with respect to Holocene climate variability. But that’s boring/unexciting.  

The climate narrative being spun in the media is largely horseshit, and I pity anyone stupid enough to get suckered into believing it.

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

I iwsh i would have gone over stevens yesterday but 405 north in the morning is a parking lot. Sat at the top of blewett for 45 minutes for construction...the worst. 

Ugh! Luckily Construction over 2 has been fairly light with just a few minute delays each time I went over between work and pleasure. Hopefully it will be similar tomorrow since it’s only a day trip. Drive over, put the boat in the garage (can’t take another spring of uncovering the boat in the driveway to find another family of mice partying in it…What a mess) and drive home. 

[MossMan]

Oh boy…Not a good analog. Though we did have a chilly November with snow at the end. Rest of the winter was garbage. 
 

However my prediction did come true in the second picture…Just had to wait a few months lol. 

[Phil]

“A Review of Abisko Case Study: Recent and Past Trees an Climates at the Arctic/Alpine Margin in Swedish Lapland A Review of Abisko Case Study: Recent and Past Trees an Climates at the Arctic/Alpine Margin in Swedish Lapland“

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Leif-Kullman/publication/349947365_Chapter_1_A_Review_of_Abisko_Case_Study_Recent_and_Past_Trees_an_Climates_at_the_ArcticAlpine_Margin_in_Swedish_Lapland_A_Review_of_Abisko_Case_Study_Recent_and_Past_Trees_an_Climates_at_the_ArcticAlp/links/6048b0eda6fdcc9c7825b6b9/Chapter-1-A-Review-of-Abisko-Case-Study-Recent-and-Past-Trees-an-Climates-at-the-Arctic-Alpine-Margin-in-Swedish-Lapland-A-Review-of-Abisko-Case-Study-Recent-and-Past-Trees-an-Climates-at-the-Arctic-A.pdf?origin=publication_detail

[GobBluth]

Looking at the long range models and persistence of some west coast ridging- a common October theme lately - makes me amazed in an event like the Columbus Day storm. 

Yes, completely different atmospheric regime 61 years ago, but difficult to imagine a similar event this early into fall..