October 2023 Weather in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Mild east breeze up here... going to be warm day.   There is still some fog down in the valleys though.  

[TT-SEA]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yesterday was disgusting with highs in the mid-80s after getting 2" of rain the night before. Cold front expected to sweep through in a few hours, so today should be nice. Sounds like I'm missing some gosh awful weather in the PNW right now. 

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yesterday was disgusting with highs in the mid-80s after getting 2" of rain the night before. Cold front expected to sweep through in a few hours, so today should be nice. Sounds like I'm missing some gosh awful weather in the PNW right now. 

That would be a “nice” day by summer standards here. Not uncommon for it to reach 88-90°F by 10AM after a night of downpours in Jul/Aug. Makes you feel sleepy and nauseous simultaneously.

[TT-SEA]

18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yesterday was disgusting with highs in the mid-80s after getting 2" of rain the night before. Cold front expected to sweep through in a few hours, so today should be nice. Sounds like I'm missing some gosh awful weather in the PNW right now. 

Definitely some gorgeous October weather in the PNW this weekend.   You know you would actually enjoy it.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

44 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Maybe that was the root of the very sad post a couple days ago?

I hope not.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Definitely some gorgeous October weather in the PNW this weekend.   You know you would actually enjoy it.  

What would I do? Sit in my cold basement and cry?

[SnarkyGoblin]

Going to be in LA this weekend visiting a good college friend who unfortunately has stage 4 colon cancer @ age 39.  Hug your loved ones!

And it's my first time flying since COVID.  SeaTac needs to expand badly.

[Snownerd3000]

@Phil IOD talked about big time here. 

 

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Going to be in LA this weekend visiting a good college friend who unfortunately has stage 4 colon cancer @ age 39.  Hug your loved ones!

And it's my first time flying since COVID.  SeaTac needs to expand badly.

I’m sorry man. Sending thoughts and prayers.

[the_convergence_zone]

14 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

@Phil IOD talked about big time here. 

 

Wow that's really fantastic content. I hope he's right since we're going to be quite stormy out here if we're consistently in MJO phase 1 this fall. 

[Christensen87]

That system GFS keeps showing for next Tue/Wed looks like it could pack a bit of a punch. 

[Deweydog]

Breezy!

[Phil]

56 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

@Phil IOD talked about big time here. 

 

I like his summary of how the +IOD/+ENSO work constructively to limit rising motion over the MC/IPWP domain. And his reasoning behind more autumn troughing/storminess in the west given p8/p1 LP/MJO signature is similar to what I’d expressed here previously.

But then he implies the IOD is going to “take control” over ENSO? When in reality they’re both reinforcing each other, working constructively to maintain the p8/1 LP signature, as he himself states. Doesn’t make sense to me? They don’t “counter” each other, they constructively interfere.

Also, he states he believes phase-1 MJO will be dominant in O/N/D, but what’s he’s actually referring to is the LP projection into phase-1 on the unfiltered RMM plots, not the MJO (which always propagates).

And he gives no reason why he believes phase-1 should dominate over phase-8. They’re relatively similar, and looping p8/p1 RMM tells you basically the same thing about the global circulation..MJO-specific correlations are a bit different than the LP/ENSO regime projected onto the RMM plot.

[Omegaraptor]

Current temp:

Kelso, WA 59°F

Aurora, OR 79°F

[Omegaraptor]

Foggy on I-5 in Lewis County.

Fall is well and truly here!

[the_convergence_zone]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

I like his summary of how the +IOD/+ENSO work constructively to limit rising motion over the MC/IPWP domain. And his reasoning behind more autumn troughing/storminess in the west given p8/p1 LP/MJO signature is similar to what I’d expressed here previously.

But then he implies the IOD is going to “take control” over ENSO? When in reality they’re both reinforcing each other, working constructively to maintain the p8/1 LP signature, as he himself states. Doesn’t make sense to me? They don’t “counter” each other, they constructively interfere.

Also, he states he believes phase-1 MJO will be dominant in O/N/D, but what’s he’s actually referring to is the LP projection into phase-1 on the unfiltered RMM plots, not the MJO (which always propagates).

And he gives no reason why he believes phase-1 should dominate over phase-8. They’re relatively similar, and looping p8/p1 RMM tells you basically the same thing about the global circulation..MJO-specific correlations are a bit different than the LP/ENSO regime projected onto the RMM plot.

That's a long way of saying you basically agree 

[TT-SEA]

Up to 68 here now with a light east wind and deep blue sky.    

[Phishy Wx]

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hope we have a winter full of cold inversions! 

[TT-SEA]

Up to 75 now and breezy.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Up to 75 now and breezy.  

Thanks for the update. North breeze has kicked in here and it’s down to 71.

[the_convergence_zone]

Looks like Sea-Tac is going to crack 70 this hour. The record of 78 is a long shot but 75 seems within reach. Tomorrow's record of 77 is toast. 

Maybe we can break the Oct 7 record high next year as well and make it a 3-peat? 

[TT-SEA]

Not a cloud in the entire state of WA.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hope we have a winter full of cold inversions! 

Fake cold galore! I can almost see the Columbia Basin cold pool from here.

00z GFS (Thanksgiving) in 1,159 hours 12 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Current temp 80.1, Low temp 69.1. Gusty east wind continues

[SilverFallsAndrew]

41 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not a cloud in the entire state of WA.

Pretty cloudy here at the moment. 

[GHweatherChris]

80 degrees here currently!

[YahRaEl]

69.5° currently here at Eastside Tacoma 

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

 

Looks like El Niño or something.

[FroYoBro]

Just touched 85 here. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

83F and sunny here in the far south Willamette Valley.

I absolutely predict we will have fake cold for an extended period and that will be nice for it to be cold at the surface and at least feel like winter. Maybe an airmass that has the ability to create a sub freezing high or two.

[Meatyorologist]

86F in Long Beach. Ripping east wind. Some areas along the coast to the south are exceeding 90F!

[Phishy Wx]

probably going to get to 80 here on Sunday.  October HEAT!!!!

 

I had already turned off AC for the season 2 weeks ago, might need to reverse for the weekend

[FroYoBro]

13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

86F in Long Beach. Ripping east wind. Some areas along the coast to the south are exceeding 90F!

88 at Newport!

[Tyler Mode]

Wide range of lows, as expected with the east wind.  48 at my house.  Less than two miles NE, 66.  Larch didn't drop below 70.

[Meatyorologist]

18 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

88 at Newport!

As much as I despise October heat, the dynamics to get it are meteorologically fascinating. Since sfc temps are generally modulated by the efficiency of easterly descent, you'll find tight local points of maxima, with sharp gradients betweet areas where the easterlies do and don't break through.

Tim hates inversion weather but it's so freakin cool

[Meatyorologist]

We'll get a bonda fide marine push to end the heatwave here at Long Beach. Wall of clouds and a 10F temp drop, instantly, with a stiff onset of westerlies. Should be fun.

[T-Town]

73.6 here. Cut out of work early and had lunch down on the waterfront. Lovely.  

[TT-SEA]

2 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Looks like Sea-Tac is going to crack 70 this hour. The record of 78 is a long shot but 75 seems within reach. Tomorrow's record of 77 is toast. 

Maybe we can break the Oct 7 record high next year as well and make it a 3-peat? 

75 at SEA on the hour.