10/25 - 10/31 Hurricane Norma and a series of storms bring heavy rainfall and possible snow to the central US

[mlgamer]

Amazingly, I added another 0.37" today so far to go with my 0.37" overnight for a storm total of 0.74".  Not shabby but nothing even remotely close to the prolific totals to the south and east. Beggars can't be choosers I guess...

[gabel23]

Well what looked like a great chance of a soaking turns into a dud for me. Sitting at .03” for the past couple of days and not looking for much more. Will see if I luck out with some snow…..

[CentralNebWeather]

13 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Well what looked like a great chance of a soaking turns into a dud for me. Sitting at .03” for the past couple of days and not looking for much more. Will see if I luck out with some snow…..

I’m up to a very surprising 0.45”. I’d have thought you’d get much more than my area. 

[Clinton]

Rainfall totals so far from around the KC area.

[hawkstwelve]

I will say it's pretty crappy how the rain has just skipped right over E Nebraska/Iowa over the past 72 hours. There's like a little bubble sitting over them. Hopefully ya'll will get your due eventually. 

[Bryan1117]

59 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I will say it's pretty crappy how the rain has just skipped right over E Nebraska/Iowa over the past 72 hours. There's like a little bubble sitting over them. Hopefully ya'll will get your due eventually. 

It's just beyond frustrating to see another promising moisture forecast 72 - 96 hours go completely bust... I have lost count how many times these systems "magically" split Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa. Not looking forward to the Winter months at all, unless something changes with this dreadful pattern... fingers crossed we will get our due over the next few months, however my optimism remains low. 

[Andie]

12 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

So far here .10 after 72 hours of forecasted rain.   Time will tell what next 4 days bring.

So I researched  some other locations  around the area.

Many in Iowa have 2023 deficits of  10 to 13 inches.  Places like dsm, Marshalltown, waterloo.  Some much smaller deficits  like Ames 4 inches or Lamoni. Kirksville  mo about a 6 inch deficit.   Kc  i think 4 or 5 inch deficit. I couldn't  find Omaha?  And if any deficits east of Mississippi  river theyre  not significant (by my standards).

I saw dallas tex has around 16 inch deficit.

Otm? Ottumwa  airport?

Almost 17 inch deficit!!!  Nearly 30 inch deficit  since jan 2022.

This pic is my pond. Its almost dry. The green basket  was on bottom  and its the location a aerator. I had it dredged in 2021. I was 70% full and i had clean  clear water and nice fish. Its so low I just gave up and its now a algea mess.

 

I hope our change this week brings you rain.  I’ll know better totals this event end of Thurs.  But we’ll be looking at around 6”.   Remarkable.  

I believe this is the swan song for this long dry damaging drought.  Farmers and ranchers will be so relieved as will your pond.  

[Black Hole]

1.02" for me for the last few days. Might get a few more hundredths tonight but I am not expecting much. Could get a little Friday too but probably less than a tenth of an inch.

 

The next real chance comes Sat-Sun as moist air overrides the low level cold. Looking at another half inch or maybe an inch of rain there. 

[Clinton]

The rain forecasted here overnight was a big bust.  Very light rain is just now moving in and radar returns are not very impressive this morning.  The RAP seems to have a good handle on the activity this morning and shows around 1/2 inch totals for mby today which might be a little optimistic. 

 

[Clinton]

@CentralNebWeather I'm jealous!

[OttumwaSnomow]

I got .73  overnight.  Not a drought buster, zero runoff. .86 for the week. Not  the rain the models had. But something.  I may get the  1" @Tom mentioned.

[CentralNebWeather]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

@CentralNebWeather I'm jealous!

All going to depend on where that band sets up. Now they are saying it will likely be north of I80. Yesterday they said south of the interstate. In other words, they just don’t know. They mentioned yesterday it is very hard to forecast these bands that might only be a county or two wide. 

[Stormy]

16 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I got .73  overnight.  Not a drought buster, zero runoff. .86 for the week. Not  the rain the models had. But something.  I may get the  1" @Tom mentioned.

I'm happy for you, and you did better than me. I was in a dryer strip with barely 0.40" overnight and not quite half an inch total here so far. But I'm still liking what the recent short-term models are showing with a heavy band of rain over or just to my northwest. And radar trends are encouraging downstream in Missouri and southern Iowa, heading for eastern Iowa it appears like. 

[Clinton]

27 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

All going to depend on where that band sets up. Now they are saying it will likely be north of I80. Yesterday they said south of the interstate. In other words, they just don’t know. They mentioned yesterday it is very hard to forecast these bands that might only be a county or two wide. 

They never know but your chances of see flakes fly are very good.  Good luck on getting an early season snow.

[mlgamer]

I added .01" of drizzle overnight bringing my storm total to 0.75". That's not much considering the inches upon inches that fell in areas just to the south and east. I can already see these areas getting a foot of snow later in winter while I get my standard "inch or less".

[MIKEKC]

3.5 to 6.5 inches of rain in the KC area and still getting pounded this morning. DROUGHT BUSTER!!!

AND....another storm this weekend that just might turn a bit wintry in KC, looking very close to doing so on Sunday morning. 

 

Come on winter, be stormy and don't forget to be cold while being stormy. 

[Clinton]

Mother Nature called me out.  After the earlier post regarding the radar not looking impressive a nice band of moderate rain has set up overhead. 

[MIKEKC]

@mlgamer....just a bit outside...of the real good stuff. KC was in the sweet spot and we have not been in the sweet spot much of the year. Another storm this weekend that looks quite wet for both us and you look like you have a better chance of wintry precip. 

Even know you missed the big rains, at least we have an active weather pattern since the the new LRC started on Oct. 7th. These storms will act differently as they cycle all winter. This current set-up will likely be a major winter storm later in Dec. when it cycles back through with an arctic outbreak.

[Tom]

5 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

I added .01" of drizzle overnight bringing my storm total to 0.75". That's not much considering the inches upon inches that fell in areas just to the south and east. I can already see these areas getting a foot of snow later in winter while I get my standard "inch or less".

Both streams didn't phase this cycle...just wait, once we get deeper into winter the Northern and Southern stream will phase...I can see this one being a Big Dog come DEC.

 

This 500mb vorticity animation shows the 2 energies just not phasing to become one big storm...I'm encouraged to see this pattern deliver more eventful outcomes in future cycles.

[Hawkeye]

I got 0.53" overnight.  That's not terrible, but the big blob of rain vanished and split around us.  Our rain came from two brief downpours at the beginning and end.  Hopefully, we can get another half inch this morning.

[Andie]

No place to put this really so I’ll mention it here.  Historic Hurricane Otis has apparently heavily damaged Acapulco with a Cat 5. 

Wow, Hurricane Otis became the 1st Pacific hurricane to reach Cat 5.  

Otis is said to have destroyed Acapulco. 
https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/acapulco-destroyed-hurricane-otis-survivor

[hawkstwelve]

Probability map from the WPC of receiving 2 inches or more of snow on Saturday. 

[hawkstwelve]

Meanwhile, the latest GFS jumped back to the south a bit with the axis of heavier snowfall while the Euro remained steadfast in its positioning. It sure would be nice to have a little more agreement among the deterministic models of where this band will setup. We're starting to get in the range of mesoscale models so it'll be interesting to see what they say.

Ultimately though, as CentralNeb said, these are notoriously difficult to forecast and will probably boil down to a nowcast, watch-the-radar kind of day.  

[Stormy]

52 minutes ago, Stormy said:

I'm happy for you, and you did better than me. I was in a dryer strip with barely 0.40" overnight and not quite half an inch total here so far. But I'm still liking what the recent short-term models are showing with a heavy band of rain over or just to my northwest. And radar trends are encouraging downstream in Missouri and southern Iowa, heading for eastern Iowa it appears like. 

Maybe I spoke too soon. I don't like the looks of that dry hole on radar down in Missouri that's lined up with my area, and the heavier band is already just northwest of me.

[Tom]

39 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I got 0.53" overnight.  That's not terrible, but the big blob of rain vanished and split around us.  Our rain came from two brief downpours at the beginning and end.  Hopefully, we can get another half inch this morning.

It's blossoming right overhead!  Nice to see it filling in on radar over much of E IA...

 

[FV-Mike]

Radar looks great for SE Iowa!

[Andie]

Just waded out to the rain gauge.  
We received 5”, although it was full, so we may have received more.  I suspect so.  
I would venture a total of 10” in the last 7-10 days.  Remarkable after a drought. 

[mlgamer]

@MIKEKC @Tom Yeah this pattern definitely has future potential after already delivering big time in many areas this time around. Should be interesting to see what happens in future cycles over the winter.

I've been noticing this nice baroclinic zone showing up for the next system over the weekend. I haven't had one of these park in a favorable location near me for quite some time it seems. Need a nice strong storm to ride up this baby, if not this time then maybe in future cycles.

[hawkstwelve]

 

[hawkstwelve]

Slight shifts northward on the CMC over the past few runs. Looks pretty close to the Euro's positioning now.

GFS remains furthest south and most expansive with the snow over Nebraska.

[MIKEKC]

KC getting close to possible a wintry Sunday?? Let's see what this baby does. CMC and RGEM also show wintry precip. 

Chiefs play in Denver this week where they are expecting 2-4 inches of snow and highs not getting out of the 20's this Sunday. That will be 50 degrees colder than last weeks game in KC. 

[bud2380]

Snowfall totals so far.  Looks like the whole state of Montana is covered. 

 

[BMT]

getting some nice rain today.  just crossed 1.5" at my house.  

[CentralNebWeather]

Front has come back south. It was 62 degrees with a 61 dew at 6 am. Now at noon it is 48 degrees with a wind chill of 40 with north winds increasing to 20 mph. Cold only gets intensified in the coming days. 

[Madtown]

1.24" on the day up here....48 all day long. I'd take these past 3 weeks all winter long with a temp of 26

[Hawkeye]

My rain total is a real nice 1.49".  For about 5-10 minutes, late this morning, it may have been the heaviest rain of the year.  I love heavy rain, but there has been so little of it this year.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Euro. 

[Iceresistance]

Here it comes for Nebraska!
 

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service North Platte NE
150 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023

NEZ006>010-023>028-035>038-270900-
/O.NEW.KLBF.WW.Y.0020.231028T0600Z-231029T1200Z/
Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-
Garfield-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-Custer-
Including the cities of Springview, Spencer, Butte, Lynch,
Ainsworth, Bassett, Rose, O`Neill, Atkinson, Hyannis, Mullen,
Thedford, Halsey, Dunning, Purdum, Brewster, Taylor, Burwell,
Arthur, Tryon, Ringgold, Stapleton, and Broken Bow
150 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 /1250 PM MDT Thu Oct 26 2023/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/
SATURDAY TO 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow with accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.

* WHERE...Much of the Sandhills and north central Nebraska.

* WHEN...The snow will begin before or shortly after sunrise
  Saturday and end late Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Accumulating of snow and ice will make travel
  hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet, or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
driving.

 

 

[Clinton]

31 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12z Euro. 

Good to see the Euro cave to the GFS.  Good luck!

[Clinton]

I picked up a half inch this morning bringing my storm total to 2.2 inches.  Models in agreement with another half to 1 inch over the weekend which will make it a very nice change to what's been.