DECEMBER 2023 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

0.07 in the bucket between yesterday and today which brings our total rainfall over the past 50 days to... 0.09 inches.

What an incredibly boring weather pattern so far this season. Just absolutely nothing remotely interesting beyond eye candy on the models in extreme fantasyland. Really hope we can eventually kick the Aleutian Low out up there and get a more amplified, dynamic pattern to take shape. Until then, more of the same ol crap with occasional influxes of very mild air and systems that can't get their act together. Yawn. 

Welcome to: 1) The Plains 2) Split flow regimes 3) El Nino winters in the north

[Hoosier]

Rather robust energy diving in from Canada on Sun/Mon should help lead to some mood flurries/snow showers for some areas west of the lake effect areas.  Chicago metro should be able to get in on this.

[hawkstwelve]

12z CMC showing some light snow on Christmas Day for some folks. 

[hawkstwelve]

Perhaps more importantly, a nice swing when compared to the 00z run on the CMC ensembles 850mb temps for around that time.

Most models and ensemble suites agree there will be a system with fairly decent precip. If we could just get slightly more cold air to work with some folks could cash in at just the right time. 

[Minny_Weather]

58 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Perhaps more importantly, a nice swing when compared to the 00z run on the CMC ensembles 850mb temps for around that time.

Most models and ensemble suites agree there will be a system with fairly decent precip. If we could just get slightly more cold air to work with some folks could cash in at just the right time. 

I'm going to be in Houston for Christmas. Not having to wear shorts in order to be comfortable would be nice.

[hawkstwelve]

12z ECMWF back to showing some Christmas snow, which coincides nicely with the 12z EPS also being cooler than it's 00z run for the Plains states. It's not over yet folks. 

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Rather robust energy diving in from Canada on Sun/Mon should help lead to some mood flurries/snow showers for some areas west of the lake effect areas.  Chicago metro should be able to get in on this.

Kinda reminds me of the intense punch with that SW at Halloween. And yeah, I will take blustery w/mood flakes vs continued snoozefest. 

DTX

Expect ongoing rain showers to turn to a rain-snow mix over the course of the morning
before turning to all snow by afternoon/early evening. Accumulations
will be minimal due to the light precip intensities. Area of
potential exception could be the eastern Thumb as lake effect ramps
once the core of the arctic airmass settles over the region late
Monday. This will be highly sensitive to the exact wind direction,
ie true northwest vs more north-northwesterly component, with better
chances to be clipped by bands the more northerly wind component
there is. Gusty winds continue to look likely for Monday across the
area as a deepening mixed boundary layer within the CAA regime
supports gusts in the 35-40mph range, potentially stronger in the
Thumb particularly along the lakeshore.

 

[jaster220]

Was at the new place yesterday and there are still plow piles at all parking lots. My wife was hoping to actually see snow OTG like the last three times I was in the Northland. I was actually thankful to not be dealing with the slippery roads this time. 

[Hoosier]

LOT re:  Monday.  Get excited folks!  

 

As a very strong storm system tracks northward up the eastern
seaboard Sunday night, a strong and compact PV anomaly is
expected to quickly dig southeastward across the Upper Midwest
right into our area by early Monday morning. A much colder Arctic
origin airmass accompanying this impulse will steepen lower level
lapse rates to the point that snow showers and flurries will be a
good bet across the area into Monday morning. However, there is
also some concern for a short period (up to an hour or so) of more
vigorous snow showers and squalls early Monday morning as the
main PV anomaly digs into the area. We will have to keep a eye on
the timing of this feature as it could potentially impact parts of
the early morning commute. Temperatures ahead of the feature will
be above freezing. While this could limit initial impacts from
any snow that falls, temperatures are expected to quickly fall
below freezing into early Monday morning as blustery conditions
drive in a colder airmass. For this reason, we could have some
strips of minor accumulations across parts of northeastern IL into
northwestern IN early Monday morning.

[Tom]

We are still a ways away to get excited, but out here, the models are starting to hone in on a potential soaker in AZ.  If we get half of what the Euro is showing it would put a dent in the deficit for the year.  While this isn't the most ideal track to get a cold core storm to dump widespread snow in the mountains, I'm sure the ski resorts won't mind  snow falling during a holiday weekend...but esp, on Christmas day!

 

[Tom]

@CentralNebWeather @hawkstwelve both looking better for some White Gold on Christmas Eve/Day...nice trends!

[jaster220]

30 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

LOT re:  Monday.  Get excited folks!  

 

As a very strong storm system tracks northward up the eastern
seaboard Sunday night, a strong and compact PV anomaly is
expected to quickly dig southeastward across the Upper Midwest
right into our area by early Monday morning. A much colder Arctic
origin airmass accompanying this impulse will steepen lower level
lapse rates to the point that snow showers and flurries will be a
good bet across the area into Monday morning. However, there is
also some concern for a short period (up to an hour or so) of more
vigorous snow showers and squalls early Monday morning as the
main PV anomaly digs into the area. We will have to keep a eye on
the timing of this feature as it could potentially impact parts of
the early morning commute. Temperatures ahead of the feature will
be above freezing. While this could limit initial impacts from
any snow that falls, temperatures are expected to quickly fall
below freezing into early Monday morning as blustery conditions
drive in a colder airmass. For this reason, we could have some
strips of minor accumulations across parts of northeastern IL into
northwestern IN early Monday morning.

Arctic frontal blasts are pretty cool in their own short-duration way and I wouldn't turn one down at this point. But I have had horrible luck in missing out lately from every direction.

[jaster220]

"Kinda reminds me of the intense punch with that SW at Halloween"

Remember that MESO Low at the bottom of Lake Michigan?? It's like deja-vu, all over again (I'd take notes on this you LRC trackers out there)

 

[CentralNebWeather]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

@CentralNebWeather @hawkstwelve both looking better for some White Gold on Christmas Eve/Day...nice trends!

Some nice trends today. Canadian would be perfect. 

[hawkstwelve]

Another shift colder for the Plains states on the latest GEFS when compared to 12z run. 

Also, probabilities of greater than 0.1 inch of QPF continue to rise. 

[Andie]

4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

. I was actually thankful to not be dealing with the slippery roads this time. 

That’s why I’m so glad I live in Texas.  
We get snow/ice, but not often.  

[hawkstwelve]

 

[Andie]

"Multiple CMEs from 14 and 15 Dec are likely to cause G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions on 16-17 Dec.," NOAA said during a Friday update.

 

[jaster220]

My former back yard is very near the expected worst conditions in the APX map:

[hawkstwelve]

00z GFS showing some crazy Christmas Eve snow for E Nebraska. 

[CentralNebWeather]

“So you’re telling me there’s a chance?”  
NWS Hastings afternoon disco:

Christmas Eve into Christmas Day (Possible Storm System)... This is just a bit beyond our normal forecast period, but given the big holiday we are keeping an eye on a possible plains storm system around this time frame. Around 60-70% of the 12Z ECMWF ensemble members have precipitation over our forecast area at some point during this two day window. However, most of these ensembles are warmer with rain being the most likely/predominate precipitation type. We do have around 20-30% of the 12Z ECMWF ensembles that are indicating the possibility of snow across some portions of our forecast area during this Christmas Eve/Christmas Day window. It`s just too far out in time right now to get a good handle on it, but will need to keep a close eye on the forecast going forward.

 

[Hawkeye]

I got 0.33" of rain today.

[clintbeed1993]

12 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

“So you’re telling me there’s a chance?”  
NWS Hastings afternoon disco:

Christmas Eve into Christmas Day (Possible Storm System)... This is just a bit beyond our normal forecast period, but given the big holiday we are keeping an eye on a possible plains storm system around this time frame. Around 60-70% of the 12Z ECMWF ensemble members have precipitation over our forecast area at some point during this two day window. However, most of these ensembles are warmer with rain being the most likely/predominate precipitation type. We do have around 20-30% of the 12Z ECMWF ensembles that are indicating the possibility of snow across some portions of our forecast area during this Christmas Eve/Christmas Day window. It`s just too far out in time right now to get a good handle on it, but will need to keep a close eye on the forecast going forward.

 

I can't think of much worse than cold rain on Christmas..yuck!   We need to get cold air into this pattern ASAP

The cruel joke is this is actually turning into December 2009 only with zero cold air. Could be looking at multiple massive rain storms with barely a flake thanks to the torch 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 53/38 that 53 was the 3^rd warmest for any December 16^th at GR. There was 0.03” of rain and no snow. For the season GR is now -15.1” in the snowfall department. There was 21% of possible sunshine yesterday.

For today the average H/L is 36/24 the record high of 54 was set in 2006 the record low of -5 was set in 1973. The wettest was in 1921 with 1.37” The record snowfall was just last year with 10.4” and a H/L of 28/24. The most snow on the ground was in 1970 with 13” There looks to be some snow tomorrow but the wind direction will not favor Grand Rapids and most of the snow will fall NW and SW of the metro area.

 

[westMJim]

Some southern Lower Michigan weather history for December 17th 

1963: Lake effect snow buries Muskegon with a three day total of 34 inches of snow from the 16th to the 18th. This will be the snowiest December in Muskegon history with a grand total of 82.6 inches for the month of December.

1876, the daytime temperature rose to only 10 degrees in Detroit, which is 25 degrees below average. The H/L at Lansing was 7/-9 and there was 6" of snowfall on that date.

[Clinton]

I am really happy to see this part of the pattern be so active with storms, I know it stinks that most of it is rain.  In cycle 1 storms raced across the US/Canadian boarder as the pattern was northern stream dominate and left KC with a 21 day dry streak.  This time around the southern branch is stealing the show and that will mean more drought busting in my area.

As we get to January cold air will quickly work it's way into the pattern at the same time the bigger storms begin to cycle in.  If the southern branch remains active we will see the big snow storms we've been waiting for.  Until then hoping for @CentralNebWeather and @hawkstwelve get some snow for Christmas!

[Minny_Weather]

I'll be in Houston on Christmas (like I said earlier) so obviously I wouldn't be home for this storm, but an eastward shift is needed if Hawks and I want to see snow from this system. I'd rather not return home on New Year's to sh!t brown ground. 

[tStacsh]

Pretend winter for a day.  Nice.  Should get a dusting.   Might crack two inches total by Christmas!  

[mlgamer]

Well, I was expecting this pattern to be pretty dry for me the next three weeks but there were subtle hints that it could be more productive in future cycles and that may be the case as the models are pretty bullish in bringing precip here in the coming days. Of course, no cold air so rain it is. It is what it is.

[Timmy Supercell]

45 degrees and getting some off/on much needed rain this morning. It's on its way out though.

Some isolated chances of a light snow somewhere tonight or tomorrow AM, most likely I miss it but we'll see.

[Niko]

Light rain and a very mild temp in the 40s attm. Keep in mind, average high is around 36F. More mild weather all of next week and into Christmas Day (Which could be near 50F w/ showers on Christmas Day). So, all of December looks like it will be snowless here in mby. I don't mid it as long as the good stuff is back-loaded for January and February. Also, tbh, this mild weather has been a real treat for shoppers and for other outdoor activities and decor, especially.

[CentralNebWeather]

10 hours ago, clintbeed1993 said:

I can't think of much worse than cold rain on Christmas..yuck!   We need to get cold air into this pattern ASAP

The cruel joke is this is actually turning into December 2009 only with zero cold air. Could be looking at multiple massive rain storms with barely a flake thanks to the torch 

I guess moisture is better than a brown Christmas. The positive is we are hosting Christmas here, with relatives coming from KC from the 22-24. There have been many holidays over the years where we had to postpone our Christmas to another date due to a storm or potential storm. 

[Hoosier]

26 minutes ago, Niko said:

Light rain and a very mild temp in the 40s attm. Keep in mind, average high is around 36F. More mild weather all of next week and into Christmas Day (Which could be near 50F w/ showers on Christmas Day). So, all of December looks like it will be snowless here in mby. I don't mid it as long as the good stuff is back-loaded for January and February. Also, tbh, this mild weather has been a real treat for shoppers and for other outdoor activities and decor, especially.

Maybe it's just me, but I'd rather be able to look at Christmas decorations with snow.

[jaster220]

Well, that escalated quickly. 

SWMI

[tStacsh]

7 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Well, that escalated quickly. 

SWMI

Short duration.  But dynamic.  Whoever sets up under those bands could be in for a treat!   Near blizzard conditions at times.   

[Niko]

28 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Maybe it's just me, but I'd rather be able to look at Christmas decorations with snow.

Yep. Me too.

I remember 2017, Christmas Day was brutal w at least 6"+ otg. Also, I was waiting for tons of guests to come over and only half showed up. Daytime highs were in the frigid teens. My front glass door had icicle designs.

[Niko]

28 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Well, that escalated quickly. 

SWMI

Ahhhhh...the good 'ol headline that we all miss seeing in our forecast. Hopefully, soon.

[Hoosier]

Nice massive flip flop on the 12z GFS around Christmas.

[Niko]

On 12/14/2023 at 9:36 PM, OttumwaSnomow said:

 

 Check  out this old twc report from Breezewood, PA.  I lived 15 miles from that  location.   Jim Cantore killed it! Lol

I think this sun mon system  could  fool some folks. It was 53F in Philadelphia  and 33F in Pittsburgh  on this report.

 

I remember that storm very well. It was a hugger, so (Northern Queens where I was ) had a hvy mix bag but then, went over to a very heavy windswept rain. Winds were very strong too.Up to 70mph wind gusts, sustained at 40-50mph. Trees had fallen as well and power outages were reported throughout the area. It was a slow mover, so same areas were getting pounded. That is the one great thing about living on the EC. You get to experienced some real storms and if you are lucky, you will see a true blizzard. I have. Never will forget it (1996, January 7-8th. I received 30 inches in mby w drifts as high as 10 feet). Anyways, Subways were flooding and everything had to close down. It was a nightmare. Heavy snows were reported inland. If it was just a few miles offshore, my area would had been inundated w snowfall. That is the only aspect you have to watch out for when you are tracking these nor'easters. A slight wrong path and you are f**ked.

[Niko]

On 12/13/2023 at 2:01 PM, Madtown said:

Sneak attack snow storm Friday night up this way? Seems pretty warm,  but all models showing it now!

 

Second go around on the rink. Hoping this one don't melt. Over 60 hours into build time in the last 2 weeks...Just brutal.

 

This is pretty neat. How do you take care of this. I am assuming it must take a lot of effort.