DECEMBER 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Black Hole]

We are seeing signs of the annoying central Canada ridging finally moving westwards towards BC/AK at the tail end of the ensemble means. This will be occurring as the MJO shifts into more favorable phases that favor a jet retraction. 

Some signal for enough cold air with any ejecting storms to get some snow in parts of Plains as well. 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Happy Monday all!  I sorta slept in today and had a late start but I just wanted to come on here and say "Giddy up, Buckle Up"....sh$T is gonna get real here the day after @jaster220 moves into his new home in the Northland!

FYP

(on a side note, have snow-globe flakes falling now = very nice!)

[jaster220]

Guess I am not keeping up. I missed this issuance of headlines from DTX overnight for the Thumb region:

 

Winter Weather Advisory

---

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
357 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

MIZ049-054-055-182130-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0010.231218T1700Z-231219T0500Z/
Huron-Tuscola-Sanilac-
Including the cities of Bad Axe, Caro, and Sandusky
357 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...WINTER WEATHER AND HIGH WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON
TODAY TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow and high wind expected. Total snow accumulation up
  to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Huron, Tuscola and Sanilac Counties.

* WHEN...From noon today to midnight tonight.

* IMPACTS... Expect bursts of lake effect snow showers and high
  wind to produce hazardous conditions. Increasingly difficult
  travel is expected during the event peak from mid afternoon
  through mid evening. The high wind could also result in damage
  to unsecured objects and localized power outages, especially
  near the Saginaw Bay and Lake Huron shorelines.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... A strong cold front will move through
  Lower Michigan during the morning with a mix of rain and a few
  heavier snow showers and wind gusts mainly in the 30 mph range.
  Coverage of snow showers remains highly variable as a northwest
  to north wind increases into the 40 mph range during early
  afternoon. Lake effect snow then increases coverage and
  intensity while peak wind gusts reach the 45 to 50 mph range
  from about 2 PM to 10 PM this evening. Both lake effect snow and
  wind diminish toward midnight and subside even further after
  midnight tonight.
 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take action to secure outdoor objects from the high wind gusts and
plan for extra travel time this afternoon and evening.

[jaster220]

Wondering if we could get one of these where the two SLPs "connect"?? That would be '78 style wowza

The classic map vs:

[tStacsh]

Solid 1" down.  More than expected with the wave.  Add a dusting of a  little LES maybe later and it's not too bad of a taste today.  

[jaster220]

Just now, tStacsh said:

Solid 1" down.  More than expected with the wave.  Add a dusting of a  little LES maybe later and it's not too bad of a taste today.  

Thx for report, radar looked solid over almost all of SWMI. 

[jaster220]

Baro is pretty low, WC's already in low 20s, and we haven't even got into the expected gusty NNW winds forecasted.

[tStacsh]

3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Thx for report, radar looked solid over almost all of SWMI. 

Yep, looks like winter today!  Heading home for lunch to check it out.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

Getting graupel! This happened more often in the PNW, and used to occur in the transition months back there.

[hawkstwelve]

More disappointing deterministic runs from the GFS and CMC for Christmas storm. So much cold rain and wasted opportunity. Sure hope the ECMWF has a better handle on things and these other two step-children will come around soon.

[hawkstwelve]

Unfortunately, I'm not too optimistic because even the EPS from last night decreased amounts and doesn't look overly impressive for any Christmas snow potential here. Without the ensembles onboard this is more or less just wishcasting at this point.

Still time for a turnaround though, I suppose.

[Hoosier]

Had a nice burst of snow here earlier this morning.  Enough to whiten the grass.

[bud2380]

We need any form of precip, so not entirely complaining here, but man what a waste of a system.  Just no cold air to work with at all.  Look at all this qpf, almost entirely rain.  This is the Canadian and the GFS is very similar.

 

[hawkstwelve]

12z GEFS continues the lessening of snow amounts here when compared to 06z run.

Ensemble means continue to increase for western SD and Nebraska but continue to decrease here. It feels like the GFS and CMC are really zeroing in on a trajectory that dumps snow just a couple hundred miles to my west while leaving me with nothing but Christmas rain. 

Again, still enough time to shift things enough where CentralNeb and I can still score something but as of right now, not looking too good.

[bud2380]

LOL.  This is incredible.  I'm assuming some records will be broken if this verifies.

 

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

LOL.  This is incredible.  I'm assuming some records will be broken if this verifies.

 

Probably a good bet if those kind of departures verify.  I pulled up Minneapolis just for 1 example and their record high for 12/25 is 51.

[Black Hole]

12z GFS wasn't a bad look with two different regions of warming squeezing the PV. 

 

[Hoosier]

18 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

We need any form of precip, so not entirely complaining here, but man what a waste of a system.  Just no cold air to work with at all.  Look at all this qpf, almost entirely rain.  This is the Canadian and the GFS is very similar.

 

I've been in the strip that has done fairly well with precip this month, but it's a fairly sharp cutoff on either end as you can see.

If anything like the precip progs for the next 10 days verifies, then it would strongly tilt the odds in favor of DJF ending up wetter than avg around here (this says nothing about snowfall of course).  Jan/Feb would have to turn very dry for it not to.  

 

 

[WinterSquall23]

Snow globe here a while ago.  Currently 32 degrees. Roads are clear for now. Looks like winter out.  

[Timmy Supercell]

Officially had some wet flakes coming down half hour ago. Now getting sunbreaks. 

[bud2380]

Euro isn't as strong, but still has heavy rain on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day for a large portion of the midwest.  Snow on the far NW side.  

 

[hawkstwelve]

Euro just dumps on western NE and SD. Not nearly as much for my area and delays the changeover from rain to snow until midnight Tuesday, but still gets me a couple inches.

Overall, looks closer to it's 00z run than it does to the GFS or CMC solution. Mainly lesser amounts just due to a 12 hour later changeover and less precip in the NW quadrant as the low moves into Iowa. I'll gladly take something like this over the complete yuck-fest that is the GFS/CMC.

[tStacsh]

The end of the GFS is such a classic El Nino look.   I think some southern states will be in on some wintry action, while us in the North turn very  dry and cool after Christmas week.  

[Timmy Supercell]

This last cell that came through produced a decent wind gust and had a brief total whiteout and some bigger flakes. 

Still didn't stick except for on roofs/grass. Now back to sun again. 

[hawkstwelve]

12z EPS continues the cutback of totals for this area. Our probabilities of getting an inch or more have dropped to 0-10%.

So I'm pretty much putting all my hopes on the deterministic ECMWF model. What's the worse that could happen?

[Minny_Weather]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I've been in the strip that has done fairly well with precip this month, but it's a fairly sharp cutoff on either end as you can see.

If anything like the precip progs for the next 10 days verifies, then it would strongly tilt the odds in favor of DJF ending up wetter than avg around here (this says nothing about snowfall of course).  Jan/Feb would have to turn very dry for it not to.  

 

 

I have Friday's rain to thank for getting me in that small purple area in W MN

[CentralNebWeather]

Very good chance of rain from Saturday night through Christmas Day. I suppose there could be some wet snow overnight on Sunday, but they seem to be taking that out of the forecast. Great moisture, but the what if’s are huge. If only cold air was present, would have been a white Christmas for sure. Keep hope alive for a Christmas miracle. 

[mlgamer]

Sing it with me..."I'm dreaming of a noisy Christmas..."

From the afternoon TOP disco:

"After potentially some dry time Friday night into early Saturday, a pair of closed upper lows converge on the Rockies and Plains early next week with the southern low becoming an open wave and being absorbed by the northern stream wave. Variability remains high in how these systems evolve and interact, but there remains a good signal for a period of wet weather, and perhaps some thunder, this weekend into the Christmas holiday. With the warm air in place, chances for wintry precipitation remain very low (10%) through Monday."

[gimmesnow]

Ah, "the end of the GFS shows something good", the last bastion of a dead winter.

[hawkstwelve]

I'm back on the board with the 18z GFS!

Granted, it's only an inch and it falls the day after Christmas but hey, beggars can't be choosers. Who knows... maybe this is the start of a more favorable trend.

Oh who am I kidding, it'll probably be gone on the next run. Oh well, going to soak in the 1.3 inch glory while I have it!

[Hoosier]

16 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

Ah, "the end of the GFS shows something good", the last bastion of a dead winter.

Funny thing is that we're not even in astronomical winter yet.  You wouldn't know it by the overall tone on the boards though lol.

I get the impatience.  Even though it's early, most places should've had more winter wx than what's been experienced so far.  Indianapolis is still waiting for its first measurable snow of the season, and this is the latest into a season that they have gone without one since 2001.

[hawkstwelve]

NWS Sioux Falls has made a point both in their afternoon AFD and on Twitter to say that RAIN (their emphasis) is expected for Christmas Eve/Christmas and they do not mention snow anywhere at all. When NWS Seattle used to do something similar that was usually when the models started to come on-board and show a more meaningful system. On the flip side, if NWS Seattle started advertising snow for an event a little ways out we usually labeled it 'the kiss of death' and the event was pretty much guaranteed to get watered down in the models. 

Hope the same logic (err... superstition) applies out here! 

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, mlgamer said:

Sing it with me..."I'm dreaming of a noisy Christmas..."

From the afternoon TOP disco:

"After potentially some dry time Friday night into early Saturday, a pair of closed upper lows converge on the Rockies and Plains early next week with the southern low becoming an open wave and being absorbed by the northern stream wave. Variability remains high in how these systems evolve and interact, but there remains a good signal for a period of wet weather, and perhaps some thunder, this weekend into the Christmas holiday. With the warm air in place, chances for wintry precipitation remain very low (10%) through Monday."

Well it fits with the green grass I have here lol.  This will be the first green Christmas I've ever seen.  GFS showing 2 inches of rain the next 10 days for mby. Drought busting!

[mlgamer]

27 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Well it fits with the green grass I have here lol.  This will be the first green Christmas I've ever seen.  GFS showing 2 inches of rain the next 10 days for mby. Drought busting!

Yeah, it's pretty ridiculous even though getting the needed moisture is good. And whoever thought we could use the thunderstorm emoji ==> in mid-late December? lol

[Minny_Weather]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Funny thing is that we're not even in astronomical winter yet.  You wouldn't know it by the overall tone on the boards though lol.

I get the impatience.  Even though it's early, most places should've had more winter wx than what's been experienced so far.  Indianapolis is still waiting for its first measurable snow of the season, and this is the latest into a season that they have gone without one since 2001.

I do actually think we're approaching a turning point around the end of the month. It won't bring any mind-boggling cold, but at least in my next of the woods it'll get me into some more seasonal temps, which is a good baseline for future winter endeavors. 

Unfortunately, while mostly brown winters aren't super common here, they do happen, and I think there is a good chance of that. It's hard to get good snow here in January.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings afternoon disco mentions a potential changeover from rain to snow Christmas night from my area and westwards.  Small chance as of now. 

“As always, keep in mind there is still a LOT of time for things to evolve change, but from a purely hazardous weather/travel perspective our attention is currently mainly drawn to Monday (Christmas) afternoon-Tues AM for POSSIBLE snow issues.”

[Minny_Weather]

FGF with a very insightful and useful AFD /s. Better than the old OAX ones that literally just summarized the forecast at least.

Quote

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023

Southerly flow will increase throughout the day today allowing
for solid warm air advection and temperatures to remain elevated
overnight tonight. Upper ridging will move eastward through the
early week, allowing for above normal temperatures through the
week.

As the ridge flattens midweek, there may be the potential for a
very weak shortwave to get some precipitation, but the
probability of this occurring is very low (so low that the NBM
hasn`t even picked it up and it`s blended out). Still, should
precipitation arise, impacts will be limited due to limited
amounts of precipitation.

Towards Christmas Eve/Christmas Day, there remains a robust
signal for a system somewhere within the CONUS. Unfortunately,
ensemble guidance continues to be very noisy regarding the
evolution of this, so confidence in any impacts for our area
and how severe impacts would be is very very low.

MPX doesn't even bother mentioning any possibility of snow in the western CWA

Quote

Let`s talk about our current odds of a white Christmas here in
southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Surely this stretch of
anomalous warmth will guarantee a brown Christmas morning across the
region right? Unfortunately, yes and to add insult to injury we may
end up seeing some widespread rain Christmas eve into Christmas day.
A shortwave trough will cross the Rockies and move into the Plains
this weekend. This system will tap into a large plume of moisture
over the central and southern CONUS. Current guidance favors
widespread rain to move in Christmas eve day before tapering off
early Christmas day. NBM PoPs (40 to 60%) feel reasonable given the
uncertainty in track and strength of the low. We`ll continue to
monitor this system as it tracks into the region, but any travel
impacts in southern MN or western WI should be minor considering the
potential record warmth and lack of cold air behind this system.
Christmas day will be slightly cooler and drier with highs in the low
to mid 40s.

 

[jaster220]

WC's in the upper teens and snow showers blowing sideways stinging the ole face this evening, even here in the Metro. I'd say we saw a few "tenths" of snow today and roads were just starting to whiten-up this evening with a 31F reading right after dark. Was a nice little surprise while it lasted. 

[jaster220]

Looks like the new place scored decently even though GRR left us out of their WWA's:

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1206 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     Snow             4 SSE Harrison          43.96N 84.78W
12/18/2023  M3.0 inch        Clare              MI   Public

[jaster220]

Serious winds along the coast with the arctic front:

eliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1150 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 NNW Saugatuck         42.68N 86.22W
12/18/2023  M61 MPH          LMZ845             MI   Mesonet

            Mesonet station XSTK Saugatuck Pier.

0950 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 W Grand Haven         43.06N 86.26W
12/18/2023  M60 MPH          LMZ846             MI   Mesonet

            Mesonet station XGHL Grand Haven Light.