December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (4-run trend) weak and transitory

[Kayla]

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 6 (4-run trend) weak and transitory

At least it shows some actual precipitation for here on the 23rd. Been incredibly hard to come by since late October.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 (4-run trend) the main event trough moving into the Gulf of Alaska.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 Wow 490-492dm heights! Never seen them that low over the Gulf of Alaska.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 8 Wow 490-492dm heights! Never seen them that low over the Gulf of Alaska.

vs Canadian

[Gradient Keeper]

I really hope the Euro moves towards the very active and volatile GFS, GEM(Canadian).

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Mercurial]

36 minutes ago, Kayla said:

This "winter" so far has been incredibly dismal. Has 1980-81 or 2004-05 vibes. Guess we were due for a dud.

With that said, there were fire weather watches issued by Great Falls NWS as recent as December 2020. 

Good to know... I was living overseas that winter.  So far, we are on track for our least snowy winter since 2012-2013.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temps, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. Not much yet. Patience!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM(Canadian) 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly. This would be something as this trough unloads on us.

[GHweatherChris]

44 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Pretty sunset tonight...just needs snow.

I see snow in that picture......

[Rubus Leucodermis]

50 minutes ago, Kayla said:

This "winter" so far has been incredibly dismal. Has 1980-81 or 2004-05 vibes. Guess we were due for a dud.

With that said, there were fire weather watches issued by Great Falls NWS as recent as December 2020. 

I think I remember that year. Was in college and getting home for the holiday was an adventure due to the weather. Also my whitest Christmas: 18" fell Christmas Eve into Christmas Morning.

[Mercurial]

I've lucked out with my Montana winters until now:

07-08 in Bozeman: La Nina, good year

08-09 in Bozeman: La Nina, great year

09-10 in Bozeman: El Nino, but not bad since we got 2 feet from from a freak November snowstorm (forecasts and models were giving us merely 1-2 inches the night of.  I went to bed and woke up with feet instead).  We had pretty deep snowpack in town for the duration of winter because of that one event.

15-16 in Whitefish: El Nino, not bad due to ample fake cold and deep snowpack in Dec/Jan

16-17 in Whitefish: Epic La Nina, nuff said

17-18 in Whitefish: Epic La Nina, nuff said

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS keeps pushing back anything interesting. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Noticed the long range GEFS is still decent the 5-20th of January. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a decently chilly 49/29 day here. Morning frost then afternoon sun and high clouds at times, relatively light winds.

Already back down to 36 this evening with some frost forming out there. At very least the lows seem to be overachieving the last few nights.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ended up with a decently chilly 49/29 day here. Morning frost then afternoon sun and high clouds at times, relatively light winds.

Already back down to 36 this evening with some frost forming out there. At very least the lows seem to be overachieving the last few nights.

Did you see the insane temps along the west slopes of the Oregon Cascades today?! 66 at Yellowstone mountain. Meanwhile the high in Shedd about 20 miles south of Corvallis was 34. 

[Skagit Weather]

2 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Not ideal but honestly it could be worse. It’s not 2014-15 bad, at least not yet. 

In the Cascades definitely not, but across the west it's significantly worse than where we were at this time in 2014.

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah. I know. I'm late. Yeah. I really hope this Euro run shows something interesting. The ridge breaking down. 150kt jet plowing into us. Major Southerly wind storm. Anything.

Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Phil]

Way out there, but the GEM ensembles start to build heights in AK/NW-Canada later in week-2.

Any change in the pattern will likely be colder, since the current pattern is the warmest possible. lol.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

Way out there, but the GEM ensembles start to build heights in AK/NW-Canada later in week-2.

Any change in the pattern will likely be colder, since the current pattern is the warmest possible. lol.

Dovetails nicely with hour 640 of the GEFS from last night.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 32 at SLE with 3/4 mi visibility. 1/8 mi visibility at EUG.

[Requiem]

Fwiw I do think the 25-31st period will have some sort of strong west coast storm or AR with the strength of that consistently predicted jet extension 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 - Model comparison ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 - Model comparison ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[FroYoBro]

33 degrees already here and it looks like some fog should be forming soon. Definitely an improvement over the 40+ lows. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 - Model comparison ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Dave]

37 degrees with probably the densest fog we've had all season. Of course it is also mixed with the neighborhood wood burning stove smoke. Awesome.

[Dave]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was going to say. I'm surprised it looks this good. 

I'm guessing the Dec 16th avg snowpack over the years isn't all that large. I just drove over Santiam Pass and there was practically nothing there other than a few inches of slop.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 - Model comparison ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Phil]

We might break the record for wettest day ever in DJF tomorrow/tomorrow night. Basically a subtropical airmass moving in, just nasty.

The top-10 list is riddled with El Niño years, most of them old, and most of them in December.. 1885/86, 1888/89, 1914/15, 1986/87, 2018/19, etc.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Dave said:

I'm guessing the Dec 16th avg snowpack over the years isn't all that large. I just drove over Santiam Pass and there was practically nothing there other than a few inches of slop.

Ugh. But yeah, you are probably right. January-March is where it's at. 

[Phil]

Well-defined El Niño pattern on the week-2 GEFS too. STJ extending through the western hemisphere.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er - Model comparison ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 - Model comparison ECMWF, GEM, GFS.... Just need another day or two.