December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Meatyorologist]

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

If you’re going to pull a rabbit out of the hat, it will have to be near/just after the (possible) SSW (as the MJO transits the IPWP in response to the SSW augmenting the MC).

February is gone already. The niño is deeply coupled/entrenched in the LP state, and ML response becomes increasingly hostile for the NW as we go through JFM. There’s nothing left to counteract it once we’re into February.

Phil, I am on my knees, completely honest with you. I really think this is going to happen. I don't know how, or I don't know why. All I know is that the SSW is going to succeed and it's gonna #BLAST on the 15th. I am trembling. I feel as if I have attained cursed knowledge.

These insights feel more like memories than predictions. Shit's gonna get CRAZY

[Phil]

I forgot how egregious 2015/16 was w/rt SPV/long period blocking. That was also a massive blowtorch nationwide.

Dynamic final warming came much too late to flip the pattern in any meaningful way. The west kept torching until the niño forcing abated in the summer.

[iFred]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Bro is jealous of my tulip trees.

Comes up at least once a month.  
 

Your parent’s trees.

And yes, I think they give the most magnificent shade of a verdant green when they start to leaf out in May.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[Cascadia_Wx]

39 minutes ago, Dave said:

Yep. Summer rain has all but disappeared which is super depressing for the health of our forests. In fact, Eugene's annual rainfall has dropped a lot in the latest 30 year rolling average. We basically get the same amount as Seattle now, although I still feel like the EUG rain sensor is somewhat suspect. Maybe with the new normal hot summers we can find a way to drag up some monsoonal moisture on a more regular basis. Probably not though.

Trouble there of course is generally the precip associated with monsoonal impulses isn’t enough to offset fire starts thanks to all the lightning, especially over the higher terrain.

[iFred]

28 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I actually have a hunch we'll pull something out of the back half of the season. Maybe not a Feb 2019 repeat, but something to make the winter worthwhile. Would be on theme for the last 5 years.

Climate change gave us a weaker jet and more continental vibes. Fingers crossed that those barrels of diesel that I ignited are doing their job to hotten things up a bit. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Phil, I am on my knees, completely honest with you. I really think this is going to happen. I don't know how, or I don't know why. All I know is that the SSW is going to succeed and it's gonna #BLAST on the 15th. I am trembling. I feel as if I have attained cursed knowledge.

These insights feel more like memories than predictions. Shit's gonna get CRAZY

We’ll see! Would have to be a gargantuan SSW and perfectly timed MJO response w/rt AAM structure/transports. Low odds but technically nonzero. It’s not impossible.

Personally I expect zilch here until late Jan. I’ve seen this rodeo play out too many times. Once the sun angles start to noticeably increase is when it’ll start snowing.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, iFred said:

Your parent’s trees.

And yes, I think they give the most magnificent shade of a verdant green when they start to leaf out in May.

 

Okay, so on a serious note, my parents split when I was 6. I rarely see them anymore. Hopefully you were more fortunate.

[Deweydog]

Only thing going for this winter is the fact that our snow shovels, broken or otherwise, are DEEP in storage.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Okay, so on a serious note, my parents split when I was 6. I rarely see them anymore. Hopefully you were more fortunate.

Some of our parents is ded.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Phil]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some of our parents is ded.

It’s all relative, isn’t it?

[Phil]

Holy lack-of-precip batman.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er hmmm....

[Chewbacca Defense]

Got down to 32 this morning, topped out at 44 before dropping back to the current temp of 29.  Had to go down to Seatac this afternoon to pick up my daughter and mother in law.  Got down there about 4, and man that sun was brutal.   There were several accidents along the way which made me wonder which is worse.....sun in the winter or rain.

On the way back up we hit thick fog with a temp of 34 around Alger, I'll bet that stretch of freeway is a real hoot right about now if they haven't treated it (they hadn't when we drove through).

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[snow_wizard]

Lots of blocking during week two on both the GFS and ECMWF.  Now to see how the details evolve.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Got down to 32 this morning, topped out at 44 before dropping back to the current temp of 29.  Had to go down to Seatac this afternoon to pick up my daughter and mother in law.  Got down there about 4, and man that sun was brutal.   There were several accidents along the way which made me wonder which is worse.....sun in the winter or rain.

On the way back up we hit thick fog with a temp of 34 around Alger, I'll bet that stretch of freeway is a real hoot right about now if they haven't treated it (they hadn't when we drove through).

Down to 29.8 here now which is the low for the day.  Feels like winter out there!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temps, 925mb Temps, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[snow_wizard]

50 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Phil, I am on my knees, completely honest with you. I really think this is going to happen. I don't know how, or I don't know why. All I know is that the SSW is going to succeed and it's gonna #BLAST on the 15th. I am trembling. I feel as if I have attained cursed knowledge.

These insights feel more like memories than predictions. 's gonna get CRAZY

I agree with Phil that the second half of the winter is toast.  I do think something may happen in January though.

[snow_wizard]

59 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

30 years ago RIGHT NOW the cold was as fake as SANTA CLAUS. I stayed a few days with my brother beginning Xmas night at his South Salem apartment and had the WV inversion experience for the first and only time of my life. NOT for the faint of heart!

Fake cold is one thing the West kicks the East's arse on.

[snow_wizard]

You can clearly see that a pretty significant SSW has already happened.  Undoubtedly the reason the models are showing so much blocking for early January.

[Gradient Keeper]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I agree with Phil that the second half of the winter is toast.  I do think something may happen in January though.

I'm not so sure since the Nino will be waning quickly. If it were not I would agree and expect tons of nasty split flow around 135-140 W.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

[SnowWillarrive]

28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I agree with Phil that the second half of the winter is toast.  I do think something may happen in January though.

If we get lucky in January that will be a major win. 

[snow_wizard]

49 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Pretty impressive!

[snow_wizard]

Serious potential on the EPS control.

[snow_wizard]

We're definitely getting somewhere now.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Good mountain snow if the GFS verifies.

[Ray]

It was 29 when I woke up at 4:30am.  Up to 31 now.  Still a nice, frosty morning.

[MossMan]

Merry White Christmas Eve! 
Cloudy and 37 degrees but the frost is sticking around. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Merry White Christmas Eve! 
Cloudy and 37 degrees but the frost is sticking around. 

Not looking very white to me.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Not looking very white to me.

I have a white roof and slightly white grass since the DP is sitting at 30 degrees. For 2023 standards that is a White Christmas! Don’t take this from me! If don’t agree you can go back to watching WOF reruns. 

[MossMan]

It’s quite breezy all of a sudden. 

[Front Ranger]

9 hours ago, Phil said:

Holy lack-of-precip batman.

Yeah, where's that beefy STJ you promised??

[Anti Marine Layer]

22 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s quite breezy all of a sudden. 

That might melt the frost.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, where's that beefy STJ you promised??

Nowhere to be found.