TT-SEA Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 From a flooding perspective... the 00Z ECMWF rainfall totals through Wednesday morning do not look like something that would be a top 10 flood event in the Snoqualmie Valley. That usually requires 5-10 inches of rain in the mountains over a short period. 3.7 inches at the pass over 2 days is not extreme. 5 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Well this is not good. The Snoqualmie Falls chart only shows low end moderate flooding but I know the flooding scenarios farther downstream are different than at the falls. Yeah from what I’ve experienced it’s almost always worse down here than up at the falls. Most of the time when it’s expected to be only moderate flooding up there it’s major flooding down here. 1 Quote 2024 Warm Season Stats Number of 80+ days - 21 Number of 85+ days - 17 Number of 90+ days - 3 Number of 95+ days - 2 (Warmest so far - 96) Number of 60+ lows - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 Just now, TT-SEA said: From a flooding perspective... the 00Z ECMWF rainfall totals through Wednesday morning do not look like something that would be a top 10 flood event in the Snoqualmie Valley. That usually requires 5-10 inches of rain in the mountains over a short period. Yeah I was surprised they were going for a top 10 flood event out of this. Maybe they are projecting a lot of that snow to melt and fill the river. 3 Quote 2024 Warm Season Stats Number of 80+ days - 21 Number of 85+ days - 17 Number of 90+ days - 3 Number of 95+ days - 2 (Warmest so far - 96) Number of 60+ lows - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_convergence_zone Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Well this is not good. The Snoqualmie Falls chart only shows low end moderate flooding but I know the flooding scenarios farther downstream are different than at the falls. Those river forecasts are not easy to make. It feels high to me given the lack of snowpack and precip numbers that we’ve seen plenty of times before, but you never know, it’s certainly within the realm of possibility. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, Cold Snap said: Yeah I was surprised they were going for a top 10 flood event out of this. Maybe they are projecting a lot of that snow to melt and fill the river. There isn't that much snow up there. I don't know... maybe the chart is way too aggressive with flooding potential and it will start to trend down once the event starts. But other times I have been skeptical of those charts and they ended up being right or even too low. From a big picture perspective this just doesn't seem like a major flooding set up based on gut feeling. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 5 Day Rainfall totals (ending 4 PM Friday) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 Day 9'er Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 Day 10 another very active pattern potentially long range. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 A ton of rain this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 1 hour ago, SnowWillarrive said: Tri cities is the worse. I agree. I think it's worse than Tacoma /Fife because you all still have moisture whereas Tri Cities is super rain shadowed. Depending how much they have. 1 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2024-2025 Snowfall totals: HIghest snow total (per event): Most recent accumulation (non trace): Days with trace or more snowfall: First Freeze: TBD Last Sub freezing Day: Coldest low: Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 00z ECMWF re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temps, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. Yikes ....... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 The Euro over the last day has trended significantly drier for this upcoming week up here. Went from close to 5" to less than 2". I guess the mountains still look to get a decent amount of precipitation, but I agree with others that I can't imagine the river forecasts showing major flooding actually verifying based on the amount of precip currently forecast. 2 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 42 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: A ton of rain this run. Warm too unfortunately 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 9 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: Warm too unfortunately Yeah straight pineapples and mangos this run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 4, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 Smoking outside in a t shirt and shorts. 54F with moderate rain. 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 00z WRF Day 9'er to 10. Yet another major AR taking aim at the Northwest. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken in Wood Village Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 This beauty means business 🌬🌧 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 Got up here to the raging river at 4am to prepare for the storm. Will probably be here until sometime Tuesday or Wednesday. This Storm isn’t exactly an October 2003 event but it’ll be a big one still and a lot of water will need to be treated. Has already been a crazy start to the day…saw a car on fire on 167 in Auburn this morning on the way here. Then a few minutes after I got here to the jobsite a car crashed and rolled over into the jobsite entrance. Few of us went to see if she was ok and she was able to get out on her own thank god. I’m surprised she wasn’t severely injured or killed. 1 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 Clown range GFS back to a pro-PV, Siberian-ridge pattern. Would virtually guarantee an “uninteresting” pattern evolution (typical niño progression, 2015/16 like) as we’d continue the shallow/fast MJO regime (less distinction w/rt Niño/LP). I’m okay taking my chances with that, but am sure 80% of the country (including most this forum) wouldn’t be so happy. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 1 hour ago, TacomaWx said: Got up here to the raging river at 4am to prepare for the storm. Will probably be here until sometime Tuesday or Wednesday. This Storm isn’t exactly an October 2003 event but it’ll be a big one still and a lot of water will need to be treated. Has already been a crazy start to the day…saw a car on fire on 167 in Auburn this morning on the way here. Then a few minutes after I got here to the jobsite a car crashed and rolled over into the jobsite entrance. Few of us went to see if she was ok and she was able to get out on her own thank god. I’m surprised she wasn’t severely injured or killed. Wow, stay safe! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 1 hour ago, TacomaWx said: Got up here to the raging river at 4am to prepare for the storm. Will probably be here until sometime Tuesday or Wednesday. This Storm isn’t exactly an October 2003 event but it’ll be a big one still and a lot of water will need to be treated. Has already been a crazy start to the day…saw a car on fire on 167 in Auburn this morning on the way here. Then a few minutes after I got here to the jobsite a car crashed and rolled over into the jobsite entrance. Few of us went to see if she was ok and she was able to get out on her own thank god. I’m surprised she wasn’t severely injured or killed. You gotta wear hip waders out there or something?? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 27 minutes ago, RentonHill said: You gotta wear hip waders out there or something?? Full set of grundens rain gear and I have some hip waders if I need em 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 Just starting to rain. 44 degrees. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 43F. 0.04” of rain this morning. It’s gonna be very wet later. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 Another 0.19" of rain overnight. Very mild morning. Currently 57 in Salem. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 3 hours ago, Phil said: Clown range GFS back to a pro-PV, Siberian-ridge pattern. Would virtually guarantee an “uninteresting” pattern evolution (typical niño progression, 2015/16 like) as we’d continue the shallow/fast MJO regime (less distinction w/rt Niño/LP). I’m okay taking my chances with that, but am sure 80% of the country (including most this forum) wouldn’t be so happy. 12z is better. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 Some of these model runs are pretty darn lame. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Some of these model runs are pretty darn lame. Euro weeklies have been so boring. La Niña and neutral please come back! Abolish El Niño 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norwood Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 Drove over Willamette Pass last night, it was 45 and pouring rain. Made the drive easier without snow, but the rivers of water in the chain ruts was kinda sketchy when driving. Bly mountain was nice a few days ago though. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 Defund El Niño 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 Just now, Norwood said: Drove over Willamette Pass last night, it was 45 and pouring rain. Made the drive easier without snow, but the rivers of water in the chain ruts was kinda sketchy when driving. Bly mountain was nice a few days ago though. I need to get back to S. Central Oregon. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 Just now, Slushy Inch said: Euro weeklies have been so boring. La Niña and neutral please come back! Abolish El Niño The 2002 vibes are definitely in play. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 Sasaki splitter on the 12z gfs. @Phil although the 500mb pattern doesn't look like the right wave pattern you keep talking about as best for PV destruct 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 3 hours ago, Phil said: Clown range GFS back to a pro-PV, Siberian-ridge pattern. Would virtually guarantee an “uninteresting” pattern evolution (typical niño progression, 2015/16 like) as we’d continue the shallow/fast MJO regime (less distinction w/rt Niño/LP). I’m okay taking my chances with that, but am sure 80% of the country (including most this forum) wouldn’t be so happy. So it’s not showing the SSW anymore in the long range? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 Just now, High Desert Mat? said: So it’s not showing the SSW anymore in the long range? 12z brought it back...gotta keep up bro!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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