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December 2023 Weather in the PNW


TigerWoodsLibido

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2 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Our favorite Uncle has been drinking this afternoon. Day 6-8

floop-gfs-2023120318.500h_anom.na.gif

 

Lol! My sister texted me this morning worried about snow next week. I told her that it would be fine and that maybe it might get cold around mid month but at least early next week should be fine. She's going to be so mad if it does snow. (Kitsap Peninusla)

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7 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Lol! My sister texted me this morning worried about snow next week. I told her that it would be fine and that maybe it might get cold around mid month but at least early next week should be fine. She's going to be so mad if it does snow. (Kitsap Peninusla)

There seems to be a lot of people mad at you.

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This has been... a week...

 

I'm still recovering from the flu, and what an annoying few days to get it. Also, to add to that chaos, when I walked out to get into my car for the first time today, I notice there's a dent that wasn't there from before I got sick (hit and run). And I have 4 days to get my Decemeber update for the winter forecast done (that's likely not getting out on time unless I choose to have no life the next few days). 

 

So let's get some snow to make me feel better? Please? I know I'm only forecasting a trace (as of October). No the summit of Hood snowfall does not count mother nature. 

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Just took the dog out and it is STILL raining pretty good. 

  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Tanis Leach said:

January 1930 was a weak to moderate La Nina.

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/history/enso/

Interesting. I will try to find my source that said it was a Nino. Or I saw 1930-31...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

She's not mad yet. Druncle has to be right first. 

 

And what can I say? I do what I can. At least I'm not involved in th4 debates around here. Yet.

I'm good with waiting until January for the goods to be delivered. I want to see an epic January ONCE in my life. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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37 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Now I see why Phil hates the 18z GFS so much. lol

The last thing I’d catch feelings over is the D10 18z GFS. ;)

I’m not desperate enough to look that far. (yet).

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Well…Its officially coming now! 
Bring on the Polar Vortex, Polar Express, Arctic Express, Panda Express….Whatever we are calling it this year! 

IMG_0825.jpeg

IMG_0823.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just now, Phil said:

The last thing I’d catch feelings over is the D10 18z GFS. ;)

I’m not desperate enough to look that far. (yet).

In your opinion do we have a shot at keeping the firehose going deep into the month? If we aren't going to get cold I would love to rack up the rainfall numbers. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interesting. I will try to find my source that said it was a Nino. Or I saw 1930-31...

I wouldn't be surprised if different sources showed different things before 1950 since ocean temp data gets washy before that. 

 

30-31 I would bet is a weak El Nino looking at SOI data. 

 

Dec 1919 was an El Nino and negative PDO, and that was a great month. 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

In your opinion do we have a shot at keeping the firehose going deep into the month? If we aren't going to get cold I would love to rack up the rainfall numbers. 

Yes into mid-month, then another anticyclone breaks into Alaska/GOA 3rd week of the month, shutting off the spigot in BC/WA.

But could be a ULL left behind near CA/OR, augmented by the STJ. Just not sure if it’ll be offshore or near the coast/inland.

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26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interesting. I will try to find my source that said it was a Nino. Or I saw 1930-31...

1929/30 was a weak niño. 1931/32 was a strong niño.

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9 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

I wouldn't be surprised if different sources showed different things before 1950 since ocean temp data gets washy before that. 

 

30-31 I would bet is a weak El Nino looking at SOI data. 

 

Dec 1919 was an El Nino and negative PDO, and that was a great month. 

1919/20 was a weak niño, yes. Easier for subseasonal variability to project onto the pattern.

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2 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

Can I see the source since that contradicts the Australian data and would help improve my Winter forecasts. 

Eric Webb’s reconstructions are the best and most rigorous I’ve seen. You’ll have to scroll down a bit.

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

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19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm good with waiting until January for the goods to be delivered. I want to see an epic January ONCE in my life. 

If it were up to me, I would like a 3 week stretch like I had in 2019 except starting Christmas Eve and then going for 3 weeks. At least the kids wouldn't miss quite as much school. I *really* don't want to miss tons of school in January that will push school into July.

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

1929/30 was a weak niño. 1931/32 was a strong niño.

Clarification: 1930/31 was the strong niño, not 1931/32.

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Just now, Phil said:

Yes into mid-month, then another anticyclone breaks into Alaska/GOA 3rd week of the month, shutting off the spigot in BC/WA.

But could be a ULL left behind near CA/OR, augmented by the STJ. Just not sure if it’ll be offshore or near the coast/inland.

Makes sense it would dry out for at least a time here in a couple of weeks. Pretty much every model gives us 10-15" of additional rain within the next 10-14 days, which would put us in the 15-20" range on the month. December 1964 is the big dog for this month with about 25" and December 2015 had a little over 22". So at face value we could potentially be closing in on the top 5 by mid-month. There are generally upward limits on these things.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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53 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Wow, the next storm is racing to the PNW. That band of clouds in front of the main storm was further out about 3 hours ago and now it's knocking on our doorstep 😳🌧🌬

G18_sector_np_band09_36fr_20231203-2028.gif

i'm flying through PDX tomorrow on the way to San Jose, when's this hitting?

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Wow. This would be the 7th highest crest if this verified. Almost every road out of Duvall would close if this happened as well.

IMG_6040.png

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 51

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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55F with some moderate rain. 2” today so far.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Eric Webb’s reconstructions are the best and most rigorous I’ve seen. You’ll have to scroll down a bit.

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

Reading what went behind this, this is far more accurate than what the Australian Government put together, and he also cites far more sources and datasets. I'll be using this starting next winter for a full forecast, but will insert the strong El ninos to see if any need to be a top analog. 

 

Page is getting a bookmark. 

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4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Plus a nice warm nose for Tiger at the southern end of things!

That south valley downslope doing work!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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9 hours ago, DareDuck said:

Where are you working up there? I’m a ski instructor up there. 

I'm a chef there, but most previous years my job was ski patrol. Got a bit tired of it, so these last couples of years I've been a chef, that way I can ski when I want, rather then all day everyday.

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Coldest temp this winter: -7 Jan 13th

Snow depth at Mount Bachelor (last updated March 27th) 107"

Snow depth at my home (updated March 27th): none

23-24 seasonal snowfall at home (updated March 27th): 84"

 

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