December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

2 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Our favorite Uncle has been drinking this afternoon. Day 6-8

 

Lol! My sister texted me this morning worried about snow next week. I told her that it would be fine and that maybe it might get cold around mid month but at least early next week should be fine. She's going to be so mad if it does snow. (Kitsap Peninusla)

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

1 hour ago, Slushy Inch said:

Look at that green tongue in there. Seems legit. Fife, Kent, etc.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

7 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Lol! My sister texted me this morning worried about snow next week. I told her that it would be fine and that maybe it might get cold around mid month but at least early next week should be fine. She's going to be so mad if it does snow. (Kitsap Peninusla)

There seems to be a lot of people mad at you.

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Look at that green tongue in there. Seems legit. Fife, Kent, etc.

Right over my house down to Fife/Puyallup Valley. The swamp is unbeatable 

[Tanis Leach]

This has been... a week...

 

I'm still recovering from the flu, and what an annoying few days to get it. Also, to add to that chaos, when I walked out to get into my car for the first time today, I notice there's a dent that wasn't there from before I got sick (hit and run). And I have 4 days to get my Decemeber update for the winter forecast done (that's likely not getting out on time unless I choose to have no life the next few days). 

 

So let's get some snow to make me feel better? Please? I know I'm only forecasting a trace (as of October). No the summit of Hood snowfall does not count mother nature. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just took the dog out and it is STILL raining pretty good. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Tanis Leach said:

January 1930 was a weak to moderate La Nina.

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/history/enso/

Interesting. I will try to find my source that said it was a Nino. Or I saw 1930-31...

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

10 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

There seems to be a lot of people mad at you.

She's not mad yet. Druncle has to be right first. 

 

And what can I say? I do what I can. At least I'm not involved in th4 debates around here. Yet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

She's not mad yet. Druncle has to be right first. 

 

And what can I say? I do what I can. At least I'm not involved in th4 debates around here. Yet.

I'm good with waiting until January for the goods to be delivered. I want to see an epic January ONCE in my life. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

Wow, the next storm is racing to the PNW. That band of clouds in front of the main storm was further out about 3 hours ago and now it's knocking on our doorstep 🌧🌬

[Phil]

37 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Now I see why Phil hates the 18z GFS so much. lol

The last thing I’d catch feelings over is the D10 18z GFS.

I’m not desperate enough to look that far. (yet).

[MossMan]

Well…Its officially coming now! 
Bring on the Polar Vortex, Polar Express, Arctic Express, Panda Express….Whatever we are calling it this year! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

The last thing I’d catch feelings over is the D10 18z GFS.

I’m not desperate enough to look that far. (yet).

In your opinion do we have a shot at keeping the firehose going deep into the month? If we aren't going to get cold I would love to rack up the rainfall numbers. 

[Tanis Leach]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interesting. I will try to find my source that said it was a Nino. Or I saw 1930-31...

I wouldn't be surprised if different sources showed different things before 1950 since ocean temp data gets washy before that. 

 

30-31 I would bet is a weak El Nino looking at SOI data. 

 

Dec 1919 was an El Nino and negative PDO, and that was a great month. 

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

In your opinion do we have a shot at keeping the firehose going deep into the month? If we aren't going to get cold I would love to rack up the rainfall numbers. 

Yes into mid-month, then another anticyclone breaks into Alaska/GOA 3rd week of the month, shutting off the spigot in BC/WA.

But could be a ULL left behind near CA/OR, augmented by the STJ. Just not sure if it’ll be offshore or near the coast/inland.

[Phil]

26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interesting. I will try to find my source that said it was a Nino. Or I saw 1930-31...

1929/30 was a weak niño. 1931/32 was a strong niño.

[Tanis Leach]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

1929/30 was a weak niño. 1931/32 was a strong niño.

Can I see the source since that contradicts the Australian data and would help improve my Winter forecasts. 

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

I wouldn't be surprised if different sources showed different things before 1950 since ocean temp data gets washy before that. 

 

30-31 I would bet is a weak El Nino looking at SOI data. 

 

Dec 1919 was an El Nino and negative PDO, and that was a great month. 

1919/20 was a weak niño, yes. Easier for subseasonal variability to project onto the pattern.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

Can I see the source since that contradicts the Australian data and would help improve my Winter forecasts. 

Eric Webb’s reconstructions are the best and most rigorous I’ve seen. You’ll have to scroll down a bit.

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm good with waiting until January for the goods to be delivered. I want to see an epic January ONCE in my life. 

If it were up to me, I would like a 3 week stretch like I had in 2019 except starting Christmas Eve and then going for 3 weeks. At least the kids wouldn't miss quite as much school. I *really* don't want to miss tons of school in January that will push school into July.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

1929/30 was a weak niño. 1931/32 was a strong niño.

Clarification: 1930/31 was the strong niño, not 1931/32.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

Yes into mid-month, then another anticyclone breaks into Alaska/GOA 3rd week of the month, shutting off the spigot in BC/WA.

But could be a ULL left behind near CA/OR, augmented by the STJ. Just not sure if it’ll be offshore or near the coast/inland.

Makes sense it would dry out for at least a time here in a couple of weeks. Pretty much every model gives us 10-15" of additional rain within the next 10-14 days, which would put us in the 15-20" range on the month. December 1964 is the big dog for this month with about 25" and December 2015 had a little over 22". So at face value we could potentially be closing in on the top 5 by mid-month. There are generally upward limits on these things.

[Phishy Wx]

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

You have to wonder if the 18z GFS is a different model than the other 3 runs of the day.

yea, its the higher resolution version of the CFS

[Phishy Wx]

3 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

handle checks out

[Phishy Wx]

53 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Wow, the next storm is racing to the PNW. That band of clouds in front of the main storm was further out about 3 hours ago and now it's knocking on our doorstep 🌧🌬

i'm flying through PDX tomorrow on the way to San Jose, when's this hitting?

[Ken in Wood Village]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

i'm flying through PDX tomorrow on the way to San Jose, when's this hitting?

According to the HRRR, the main front won't come through until late Monday into Tuesday but there will be rain from the warm front. 

[SnowWillarrive]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Right over my house down to Fife/Puyallup Valley. The swamp is unbeatable 

I-5 valley through Fife passing all those casinos into the Port of Tacoma is the worst spot for snow in all of Washington State

[MossMan]

Winthrop is holding the cold still! 

[Cold Snap]

Wow. This would be the 7th highest crest if this verified. Almost every road out of Duvall would close if this happened as well.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

55F with some moderate rain. 2” today so far.

[ShawniganLake]

Hit some light to moderate snow on the drive home from Penticton today.  Looks like we managed about 1/4” of rain here at home today.  But it was beautiful clear blue skies on the ferry ride back to the island. 

[Tanis Leach]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Eric Webb’s reconstructions are the best and most rigorous I’ve seen. You’ll have to scroll down a bit.

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

Reading what went behind this, this is far more accurate than what the Australian Government put together, and he also cites far more sources and datasets. I'll be using this starting next winter for a full forecast, but will insert the strong El ninos to see if any need to be a top analog. 

 

Page is getting a bookmark. 

[Blizzard777]

4 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

Mmm... cinnamon rolls

No no no no..,tha that’s That vortexy thing “The Guy” was talking about !!!! 

[HuskyMaestro]

3 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

This has to be for real cause the Fife and Federal Way snow dome is there!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, HuskyMaestro said:

This has to be for real cause the Fife and Federal Way snow dome is there!

Plus a nice warm nose for Tiger at the southern end of things!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Plus a nice warm nose for Tiger at the southern end of things!

That south valley downslope doing work!

[Deweydog]

29 years ago RIGHT NOW! Sneaky little continental cold event that culminated in the first decent city snowfall of my metro life… Nino GOLD!

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

9 hours ago, DareDuck said:

Where are you working up there? I’m a ski instructor up there. 

I'm a chef there, but most previous years my job was ski patrol. Got a bit tired of it, so these last couples of years I've been a chef, that way I can ski when I want, rather then all day everyday.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Ok, this is way off topic...lmao 

The trailer for Godzilla x Kong The New Empire looks awesome

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1 (4-run trend)