December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Rubus Leucodermis]

All ECMWF ensemble members now calling for snow this weekend IMBY. GFS not so enthusiastic, but I would much rather have the the support of the former than the latter if I must choose just one.

Edit: Just noticed something interesting: the grid point for the Euro is higher and inland compared to that for the GFS. Considering this is a marginal setup, that probably does a lot to explain the difference. MBY is both higher and further inland yet, which bodes well for my chances.

[ShawniganLake]

PV looking rather burly through to Christmas. 

 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Latest Euro snowfall map.

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Latest Euro snowfall map.

Euro has historically been overly optimistic in these borderline setups.  Though there’s Probably a pretty good chance somewhere between Nanaimo and Campbell river scores something significant along the east side of the island.  

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

PV looking rather burly through to Christmas. 

 

 

Definitely a 2015-like vortex.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Euro has historically been overly optimistic in these borderline setups.  Though there’s Probably a pretty good chance somewhere between Nanaimo and Campbell river scores something significant along the east side of the island.  

All the models tend to be overoptimistic in marginal setups. It is at least plausible with this event.

Though it probably will be rain in coastal areas. Question is how low into the hills the rain/snow line gets. Surprises me that the forecasts don’t mention at least a chance of snow in the higher hills.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Quite the healthy bout of rain this morning, up to .71" since midnight and the temp is 42, so presumably this is falling as snow up in the mountains/ski areas

[Chewbacca Defense]

53 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I’m only at 38”…Way behind the last several years have featured. 

I'm at 28.53" for the year

[the_convergence_zone]

9 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

First signs of daffodils poking up 

 

Hellebores are close to being in flower.  Which is pretty early

When I describe the climate of this region I tell people it's 6 months of spring, 2 months of summer, 4 months of autumn, and then a random 2 weeks of winter thrown in there somewhere between November and February.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

When I describe the climate of this region I tell people it's 6 months of spring, 2 months of summer, 4 months of autumn, and then a random 2 weeks of winter thrown in there somewhere between November and February.

We had a good 4-5 months of summer this year.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9.89" of rain in the past week. SCORE.

[ShawniganLake]

21 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

All the models tend to be overoptimistic in marginal setups. It is at least plausible with this event.

Though it probably will be rain in coastal areas. Question is how low into the hills the rain/snow line gets. Surprises me that the forecasts don’t mention at least a chance of snow in the higher hills.

ICON and some of the mesoscale models look pretty pessimistic.  
 

Mark Madryga is a very good local met.  He’s been talking about at least a rain/snow mix for higher elevations of the lower mainland for the past couple of days.  

chris Doyle is another very good BC met.  He’s watching low snow levels on the south coast Saturday PM but too early to forecast amounts and snow level  

EC is going with rain or snow for east Vancouver island. 

[the_convergence_zone]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

We had a good 4-5 months of summer this year.  

Depends on your criteria of summer. How many days did we have above 75 F? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oldie but a goodie. 

This is the Oregon State Capitol - BTW. I believe this building was destroyed in a fire in 1936 and replaced with the building we see today. 

Edited December 7, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

I’m only at 38”…Way behind the last several years have featured. 

Yeah, there might be a few pockets with above normal precip for the year after this recent firehose, but overall the western lowlands are still looking well below normal for 2023. With the NW interior the driest.

 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Depends on your criteria of summer. How many days did we have above 75 F? 

I am not sure that is a good criteria for summer in this climate.    I would say that late April through mid September was quite summery.  

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oldie but a goodie. 

WHICH STATE, ANDREW?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

WHICH STATE, ANDREW?

I edited my original post. Oregon. Looks like Salem had a 19/11 day on this date with 16" of snow depth. 

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I edited my original post. Oregon. Looks like Salem had a 19/11 day on this date with 16" of snow depth. 

I know...there are two states you care about, and they both start with O

[Cascadia_Wx]

34 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

When I describe the climate of this region I tell people it's 6 months of spring, 2 months of summer, 4 months of autumn, and then a random 2 weeks of winter thrown in there somewhere between November and February.

Sounds like you describe it inaccurately.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Sounds like you describe it inaccurately.

As I told @TT-SEA the other day. Whoever you are, and wherever you go, anyone can throw up an O. 

Edited December 7, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

As I told @TT-SEA the other day. Whoever you are, and wherever you go, anyone can throw up an O. 

I don’t know what this means. But I’ve always been pretty happy with our version of four seasons most years. Of course we’re not the Midwest, but people from there have plenty of boring, reductionist idioms to describe their climate too (we have just two seasons, winter and roadwork, hardy har harrrr!!)

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

PV looking rather burly through to Christmas. 

 

 

that shiit ain't going nowhere

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

I don’t know what this means. But I’ve always been pretty happy with our version of four seasons most years. Of course we’re not the Midwest, but people from there have plenty of boring, reductionist idioms to describe their climate too (we have just two seasons, winter and roadwork, hardy har harrrr!!)

Sorry, Jesse. I did not mean to reply to your comment. Though I do agree with you on this issue. 

My response was directed towards @Front Ranger. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sorry, Jesse. I did not mean to reply to your comment. Though I do agree with you on this issue. 

My response was directed towards @Front Ranger. 

Thank you for the clarification my friend.

[AlTahoe]

12 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

was in CA for work the past 3 days, looks like you guys have been pretty WET.

had some bumpy asss flights home this evening.  oof

most places are like 10% of normal. lol 

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

that shiit ain't going nowhere

I sent Santa a letter asking for a SSW. He better f!cking deliver. 

[AlTahoe]

Long range is looking terrible all the way out to Christmas. If we finish Dec with 2" of snow for Nov - Dec it will be the lowest ever recorded in 150 years. The other under 12" years is a who's who of the worst Winters 

1934, 1976, 1980, 1986, 2014, 2017

Hopefully you guys up north can keep the Ar's going like 2015-2016 and its not a disaster for everyone. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, AlTahoe said:

Long range is looking terrible all the way out to Christmas. If we finish Dec with 2" of snow for Nov - Dec it will be the lowest ever recorded in 150 years. The other under 12" years is a who's who of the worst Winters 

1934, 1976, 1980, 1986, 2014, 2017

Hopefully you guys up north can keep the Ar's going like 2015-2016 and its not a disaster for everyone. 

We have done OK on precip so far this season, but snowpack may end up quite anemic. 

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Long range is looking terrible all the way out to Christmas. If we finish Dec with 2" of snow for Nov - Dec it will be the lowest ever recorded in 150 years. The other under 12" years is a who's who of the worst Winters 

1934, 1976, 1980, 1986, 2014, 2017

Hopefully you guys up north can keep the Ar's going like 2015-2016 and its not a disaster for everyone. 

Looks like some more precip headed your way today and tonight? Doubt you finish the month with just 2".

[the_convergence_zone]

My point was directed at the observation that daffodils are coming up while many plants have not dropped their fall leaves yet...didn't mean to start an argument. That's all I have to say about it. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Looks like some more precip headed your way today and tonight? Doubt you finish the month with just 2".

I've seen a few random GFS runs show a nice storm splitting off in about 10 days and SLAMMING California. 

[AlTahoe]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Looks like some more precip headed your way today and tonight? Doubt you finish the month with just 2".

maybe a trace today if we're lucky. 1-4" for the crest. I don't see anymore snow on the models into the extended range. hopefully something can break through before the new year. 

[AlTahoe]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I've seen a few random GFS runs show a nice storm splitting off in about 10 days and SLAMMING California. 

Yep I keep hoping for that one. 

[the_convergence_zone]

Saturday looks dependent on dynamic cooling with the precip rates being decent right off the bat before WAA quickly jumps the snow level up. The UW-WRF does have flakes down to sea level briefly in BC but I wouldn't count on it. It's going to be brief. 

And then Sunday the snow level will be well above the passes again. Just a brutal stretch for getting ski season going, although the Euro shows an occluded front followed by a decent postfrontal period about a week out that would finally allow for some decent accumulation. The webcams at Snoqualmie don't look terrible so they should be open by next weekend at least. 

 

[BLI snowman]

35 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Long range is looking terrible all the way out to Christmas. If we finish Dec with 2" of snow for Nov - Dec it will be the lowest ever recorded in 150 years. The other under 12" years is a who's who of the worst Winters 

1934, 1976, 1980, 1986, 2014, 2017

Hopefully you guys up north can keep the Ar's going like 2015-2016 and its not a disaster for everyone. 

 

STJ will get going in the back half of winter. At which point that is probably all she wrote for us up here. Right now is probably our prime "window".

[Phil]

36 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Long range is looking terrible all the way out to Christmas. If we finish Dec with 2" of snow for Nov - Dec it will be the lowest ever recorded in 150 years. The other under 12" years is a who's who of the worst Winters 

1934, 1976, 1980, 1986, 2014, 2017

Hopefully you guys up north can keep the Ar's going like 2015-2016 and it’s not a disaster for everyone. 

Interesting, those were all backloaded winters here.

This December reminds me of 2014 and 2015. All-encompassing torches with blocking ridges in Canada.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

Long range is looking terrible all the way out to Christmas. If we finish Dec with 2" of snow for Nov - Dec it will be the lowest ever recorded in 150 years. The other under 12" years is a who's who of the worst Winters 

1934, 1976, 1980, 1986, 2014, 2017

Hopefully you guys up north can keep the Ar's going like 2015-2016 and its not a disaster for everyone. 

Didn’t yall have record snow last year? Seems to be a year of extreme.

[RentonHill]

Last 3 euro SSW. Looks like first week of January still on track. But will it be too little, too late for our heroes in the PNW??? Tune in next time...

[AlTahoe]

11 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Didn’t yall have record snow last year? Seems to be a year of extreme.

Yeah snowiest and coldest since 1951-1952. 

Last year all the seasonal models and experts had us at like 70% of normal precip do to the 3rd year La Nina. But winter ended up acting like an El Nino instead. 

This year they all had us at 120% or above because of the El Nino so of course it acts like a La Nina.

We have never had an above average winter with a Nov and Dec this bad before, so it looks like they have already busted on their forecast for this season.