December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

15 years ago RIGHT NOW models were starting to truly melt some faces.

Memories… 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Most ensemble members now calling for a little weekend snow IMBY.

[MossMan]

At least we had great music to listen to during that horrific winter. Let’s hope we don’t have a repeat this year since I don’t think we will be having a music redux like 91. 

[MossMan]

Currently dumping (I thought Tim said we were going to have a dry day today) and 44 degrees. 
Up to .14” on the day. 
was drippy and soupy this afternoon. 

[AbbyJr]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Just saying some of the hallmarks we look for with El Nino aren't happening yet as our Sierra Nevada resident has pointed out.  That and the fact the analogs have had a lot of non Nino years showing up all season.  What's wrong with saying it's not time to jump off the ledge yet?  As always I'm just looking for openings for something good to happen.  It's either that or be depressed all winter.  I've had a shittty year and I'm going to try to have as much fun with this as I can.  Quite frankly it's not as big a deal to me as it used to be, but I still like actual winter.

There's nothing wrong with having fun model riding as long as you don't become depressed if the desired outcome does not verify. It's best not to get too emotionally invested in the weather since we have no way of controlling it.

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

At least we had great music to listen to during that horrific winter. Let’s hope we don’t have a repeat this year since I don’t think we will be having a music redux like 91. 

A lot of good REGIONAL DUD mood music in there. 

[T-Town]

30 minutes ago, MossMan said:

At least we had great music to listen to during that horrific winter. Let’s hope we don’t have a repeat this year since I don’t think we will be having a music redux like 91. 

Badmotorfinger easily the best of that bunch. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

26 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

There's nothing wrong with having fun model riding as long as you don't become depressed if the desired outcome does not verify. It's best not to get too emotionally invested in the weather since we have no way of controlling it.

Plus, if you like cold and snow, our winters (with the very rare exception) just aren’t that good. If every winter that falls short of ’49/’50 is a dud and a disappointment, expect lots of disappointment.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

Badmotorfinger easily the best of that bunch. 

Black #1

Badmotorfinger #2 

Ten #3

Nevermind #4 

Then the others…

In my book anyway. 

[TT-SEA]

42 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Currently dumping (I thought Tim said we were going to have a dry day today) and 44 degrees. 
Up to .14” on the day. 
was drippy and soupy this afternoon. 

ECMWF turned wetter last night.   So much for fast moving systems at this time of year.   This moisture band took about 4 days to move through western WA.   I seriously think a person could walk faster than it was moving.    Anyways... it trended even slower to move out.     Which makes sense in hindsight given the entire trough is just a sloth.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Just one example of the N to S gradient I'm talking about is in November.

BLI = -2.0

PDX = +0.6

Salem was -1.0 in November. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Two more systems on the way before we dry out Monday. After that point the pattern is probably going to slow down considerably. Always watching and hoping for sudden changes upstream over the Gulf of Alaska with a strong, amplified ridge. No sign of that on any model or ensemble guidance, BUT always watching and hoping!

00z GFS Day 1 (4-run trend)

[Deweydog]

20 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Black #1

Badmotorfinger #2 

Ten #3

Nevermind #4 

Then the others…

In my book anyway. 

#5: Nevermind

#4: Black

#3: Motorfinger

#2: BSSM

#1: 10

I’m pretty sure the PJ song Black was written about a MAJOR ARCTIC BLAST which slid east at the last minute.

”I know someday you’ll have a beautiful life, I know you’ll be a star. In somebody else’s sky. But why? Why? Whyyyyy can’t it be, why can’t it be mine????”

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

I would be happy with an extended Columbia Basin cold pool and major east winds. PDX metro can score from that setup alone, although favor more freezing rain than snow probably.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (4-run trend)

[VancouverIslandSouth]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

That could be since they are capable of snow the entire year.  I've read that snow can even happen at sea level in the summer on the very south tip.

I'm heading to Patagonia next month. The climate there is odd, like permanent marine polar. Maybe similar to Southern Alaska. The cooler summers allow the glaciers to reach sea level even though the winters are relatively mild.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

About 9” this month. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (4-run trend)

[icyasf]

1.45” today, almost 2” storm total and 4.46” on the month!!!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF turned wetter last night.   So much for fast moving systems at this time of year.   This moisture band took about 4 days to move through western WA.   I seriously think a person could walk faster than it was moving.    Anyways... it trended even slower to move out.     Which makes sense in hindsight given the entire trough is just a sloth.   

It's been creating some great weather for my parents in Palm Springs. I was cheering for this sort of pattern when I was down there. It was actually foggy for much of the day up here.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Just saying some of the hallmarks we look for with El Nino aren't happening yet as our Sierra Nevada resident has pointed out.  That and the fact the analogs have had a lot of non Nino years showing up all season.  What's wrong with saying it's not time to jump off the ledge yet?  As always I'm just looking for openings for something good to happen.  It's either that or be depressed all winter.  I've had a shittty year and I'm going to try to have as much fun with this as I can.  Quite frankly it's not as big a deal to me as it used to be, but I still like actual winter.

I like your perspective.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (4-run trend) ridge is trending considerably stronger.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow. How exciting.... I hope models show some promise by the 18th or so....

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

1.16” today yet it felt comparatively dry, hit 3.00” for the day yesterday right before midnight. Spooky out!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Meatyorologist]

If it's gonna #come this winter, it'll either be in some fluky blocking setup around New Years, or in some amazingly lucky SSW-related Arctic hammer of death after MLK day.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er I wish this trough was at Day 2.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temps, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Mercurial]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GFS re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temps, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

not an expert but it's a miracle we (NW MT) aren't warmer with those heights.  More fake cold I guess.

[ShawniganLake]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My area was solidly below normal in November and average in September and October. I don’t agree with this narrative. 

Looking at Victoria, Vancouver and Abbotsford north of the border.  November came in pretty close to normal, perhaps just a touch warm if you take an average of those major stations.  

[SnowWillarrive]

3 hours ago, Mercurial said:

Aomori-ken has roads like the one that was posted.  Japan's climo is unreal.  I've seen 4 feet of snow in 24 hours in Aomori City.  The surrounding mountains get way more.  These pics were taken at *SEA LEVEL*.

Amazing they are only at 40 degrees latitude. They are fortunate to be downstream from Siberia. I’m jealous. 

[Mercurial]

3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Amazing they are only at 40 degrees latitude. They are fortunate to be downstream from Siberia. I’m jealous. 

Yep, although they also torch like crazy.  Hokkaido has the best climate I've encountered.  Torches are very rare.  Sapporo has great food and nightlife, too.  

[Tyler Mode]

4.11" for this storm, that was very impressive!

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, AbbyJr said:

There's nothing wrong with having fun model riding as long as you don't become depressed if the desired outcome does not verify. It's best not to get too emotionally invested in the weather since we have no way of controlling it.

I'm depressed anyway.  Doesn't really matter.  I'm much less invested in this winter than many in the past, but still want to see some cold and hopefully snow as well.

[snow_wizard]

30 minutes ago, Mercurial said:

not an expert but it's a miracle we (NW MT) aren't warmer with those heights.  More fake cold I guess.

From Nov - Jan as long as we are high and dry it's going to be cold with very few exceptions.