December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yep! Just a few weeks after the massive floods up here came this! 

Then of course in 2003 we had the freak late October/ early November cold wave after the major flood earlier in October.

[Blizzard777]

9 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Still waiting on the rain. 60F and cloudy.it stopped here so you’re going to get the Streetlamp show ! 

It stopped here so you’re in for the evening addition! 

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Then of course in 2003 we had the freak late October/ early November cold wave after the major flood earlier in October.

I remeber that. Didn't get any snow though but it was a cold halloween. 

[Blizzard777]

If we fail to launch here in the PNW I’m just going to have to abandon ship again !! I need to be stimulated .   Second thought…I should find a place up north to witness the northern lights! 

Cook Islands looks fun  

[North_County]

12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Also really depends on the specific watershed. The biggest rivers in the region (Columbia, Fraser, Willamette, Snake) definitely require deeper snowpack to fully flood, and thus rarely do so outside of spring snowmelt setups (1894, 1948) or extreme pineapple-on-snow situations like 1996 and 1964.

Yeah, I think specifically in this case the discussion was regarding rain-on-snow events (and probably even more specifically applying to fall/early winter atmospheric rivers). The situation seems entirely different for spring freshet flooders like the Fraser and Columbia, as those are more likely to start melting off when the upper watersheds are relatively dry. I suspect those are more impacted by the rate of temperature rise. I know that they were nervous about the Fraser a couple years ago because winter ran late, and temps in the upper basin didn't start warming up until June, and then peak summer hit almost overnight. I'm not familiar enough with the Willamette or the Snake to comment.

[SnowySeeker50]

2.40" so far today and 48f.

[RentonHill]

Long live the extended GEFS control 

 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like I've had 3.15" so far with about 2.80" in 24 hours.

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, LowerGarfield said:

How's the Ark and Ride (Stanwood Park and Ride II) near Rite Aid?

Update! Apparently first responders are pulling people out of their flooded cars right there along Marine Drive now! 

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I remeber that. Didn't get any snow though but it was a cold halloween. 

I'll never forget that one.  The autumn where the leaves turned black.  The cold came very suddenly after a lot of warmth.

[MossMan]

Eaten there quite often over the years, great burgers! Silvana! 

[TT-SEA]

You can tell the Snoqualmie River at the falls is going to stay in the minor flood phase... the blue line is turning the corner and the river is cresting and the first projected future level is now completely unrealistic.    And the rain has stopped for the time being.   The bulk of this rain event is over here.  

[BLI snowman]

15 minutes ago, North_County said:

Yeah, I think specifically in this case the discussion was regarding rain-on-snow events (and probably even more specifically applying to fall/early winter atmospheric rivers). The situation seems entirely different for spring freshet flooders like the Fraser and Columbia, as those are more likely to start melting off when the upper watersheds are relatively dry. I suspect those are more impacted by the rate of temperature rise. I know that they were nervous about the Fraser a couple years ago because winter ran late, and temps in the upper basin didn't start warming up until June, and then peak summer hit almost overnight. I'm not familiar enough with the Willamette or the Snake to comment.

Snake River typically sees its peak flows in April/May during snowmelt, and rarely floods outside of spring.

The Willamette is kind of a hybrid. Around Portland it typically peaks in the spring, but once you get a little upstream to Salem, the Willamette does typically see a lot of its peak flows in the winter with ARs. Historical data at Salem shows this well:

https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/peak/peak_hist.php?id=SLMO3&showdata=1

[Ken in Wood Village]

Has anyone looked at the NWS extended forecast  

[FroYoBro]

The rain has actually mostly stopped here over the last hour or so. 
 

I NEED MORE! (I see it coming) 

[MWG]

9 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Has anyone looked at the NWS extended forecast  

Same for here but those temps lol

[Blizzard777]

14 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

The rain has actually mostly stopped here over the last hour or so. 
 

I NEED MORE! (I see it coming) 

The addiction is real

[Blizzard777]

And, 

It’s raining again …..04 rain rate 

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

7:00 PM Snoqualmie Falls

 

[Snownerd3000]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Probably a bit crazy with the extent of red and orange there.

 

1 hour ago, RentonHill said:

Long live the extended GEFS control 

 

You can't show this in Utah. Considered pron

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Snake River typically sees its peak flows in April/May during snowmelt, and rarely floods outside of spring.

The Willamette is kind of a hybrid. Around Portland it typically peaks in the spring, but once you get a little upstream to Salem, the Willamette does typically see a lot of its peak flows in the winter with ARs. Historical data at Salem shows this well:

https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/peak/peak_hist.php?id=SLMO3&showdata=1

Was just thinking of the 2012  flooding the other day. Haven’t had regional flooding in NW Oregon to that extent since. We had 5.4” of rain on top of 26” of snow.

Edited December 6, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[TacomaWx]

Got back up here to Highway 18/I-90 a bit ago. Working another 10-12 hours tonight after a 29 hour shift. Rain is still going here but we avoided a catastrophic overflow at all the sites. My buddy up here is trying to get home but Highway 18 is shut down near the Raging River. He’s been here for 40 hours now. I had to go through issaquah to make it up here this evening. Been a hell of a few days trying to manage the water up here. 

[skywatcher]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Rain is still going here but we avoided a catastrophic overflow at all the sites

Glad y'all are making it through. Good luck dude.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7.9 inches since Monday at 1am, 10 inches for the month already.

El nino???

 

 

[SnowySeeker50]

GFS just won't back down

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Coming down now. 

[Blizzard777]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Got back up here to Highway 18/I-90 a bit ago. Working another 10-12 hours tonight after a 29 hour shift. Rain is still going here but we avoided a catastrophic overflow at all the sites. My buddy up here is trying to get home but Highway 18 is shut down near the Raging River. He’s been here for 40 hours now. I had to go through issaquah to make it up here this evening. Been a hell of a few days trying to manage the water up here. 

TacomaWx immersed in the storm!!  Stay safe neighbor

[the_convergence_zone]

And there it is. 1.69” yesterday + 2.31” today = 4.0” storm total. 

[Slushy Inch]

It’s still raining! Thought it was going to end by now! A memorable rain storm 

[The Winter Warlock]

Approaching 2.5” in Covington. Maybe we can hit 3” before midnight.

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

It’s still raining! Thought it was going to end by now! A memorable rain storm 

She’s taking her time, enjoying the scenary.

[TT-SEA]

28 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

7.9 inches since Monday at 1am, 10 inches for the month already.

El nino???

 

 

December was 2015 was the wettest December ever in Seattle during a Nino.   

[Front Ranger]

Wow, still moderate to heavy rain moving through Seattle/Tacoma area.

[MossMan]

Still only .56” here on the day. 
Currently dribbles and 48 degrees.

[Cold Snap]

Up to 1.86” of rain for the day.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Wow, still moderate to heavy rain moving through Seattle/Tacoma area.

Looks like this might be last significant wave.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

Anybody have the GFS ensembles? Just curious tbh

Edited December 6, 2023 by SouthHillFrosty

[Cold Snap]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Anybody have the GFS ensembles? Just curious tbh

 

[yellowstone]

2.76” here so far today on top of 1.69” yesterday.  Quite the AR!

[TT-SEA]

Similar to November... looks like we get most of the month's rain in a few days and go back to a generally dry pattern.   

Rolling 7-day precip anomaly per 00Z GFS.