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Midwest/GL Snowstorm 12/9 to 12/10


bud2380

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Shall we commence the time-frame when everything goes to crap like the last "big phaser"? No sooner was a thread started and "poof" went the potential. All three globals had nearly the same boom-factor outcome on like the same day - and all were equally way off. The only thing I have to stand on is GRR's comment that this seems to be a more plausible version for a strong storm. Could still be SE and weak sauce tho too.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Yep, this has turned into just a quick rain system here Friday night into Saturday morning.  Oh, well.

season snowfall: 28.9"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Hmmm, well...was this a good use of the AI Graph model in the medium/long range???

Check out the GEPS...lets see if we see the southern piece become the bigger player...

 

 

1.gif

Yeah I went back to my post last Saturday about what the GraphCast was showing for this system and it ended up being pretty dang close. It dug the southern, larger system a little too far into the SE but overall it had a much better handle on this pattern 7 days out than the deterministic models have just a few days out. An early win for that model, IMO.

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17 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Yeah I went back to my post last Saturday about what the GraphCast was showing for this system and it ended up being pretty dang close. It dug the southern, larger system a little too far into the SE but overall it had a much better handle on this pattern 7 days out than the deterministic models have just a few days out. An early win for that model, IMO.

Will certainly be interesting to watch the performance of the various AI models over time.  They seem to be promising in the early stages.  

Based on how they work (at least how I understand it), their vulnerability may be whenever we have an extremely anomalous pattern/setup as there may not be a lot of history to pull from in those circumstances.

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19 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Yep, this has turned into just a quick rain system here Friday night into Saturday morning.  Oh, well.

Considering the t'storm chances approaching this weekend over here that doesn't surprise me.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 6
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Overnight consensus from the globals on a mid-990s SLP near the Straights or the Sault, MI Saturday pm bringing some kind of precipitation to Yooperland, then the next wave forms and whiffs SE with it's precip shield. How to score a nothingburger out of a bombstorm. Thx (again) LR models!

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_22.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The wettest models are down to only a couple tenths of an inch of rain here Friday night.  Some models show only sprinkles.  This system sure crapped the bed.

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season snowfall: 28.9"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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6 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The wettest models are down to only a couple tenths of an inch of rain here Friday night.  Some models show only sprinkles.  This system sure crapped the bed.

No surprise. I have recorded .25 December   after just .59 in November.  OTM has even less, DRIEST YEAR IN HISTORY.  Might as be witnesses of a historical  record. 

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A lot of these stop right at or before my county. But its something! Looking forward to my first thunder since 9/30..

2023-12-9_1730.png

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 6
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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22 hours ago, Clinton said:

Very thin line of decent rainfall targeting my area on the models today, not much of a margin for error and not much of a storm.

qpf_acc-imp.us_mw.png

My first real wet storm potential since July I'm thinking. August started a trend toward way drier weather, so I'm going on nearly 5 months since a good rain.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 6
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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So, if you live in this one region of this one single county this winter storm is not a complete bust, lol

image.png.0c74ce8e44a6c6f52d02288a3908443e.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Wondering if these snow squalls shown for Saturday night are legit or not? Also has some showers around here that DTX was discounting as well. Guess we'll see if a late-game rally in the making?

image.png.7b98845588e3261d2e7eded9f73c853a.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Monthly rainfall totals (Ashland KY)

August: 3.28" (-0.63")
September: 0.79" (-2.53")
October: 2.02" (-0.95")
November: 0.92" (-2.06")

The 1st half of August consisted of more normal rain, then very little storm activity occurred during the 2nd half. And more than an inch of October's rain happened in the last two days of the month.. Half of November's rain fell on 11/22 (0.48").

If tomorrow gives around an inch, would be my wettest day since middle of summer.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 6
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Not sure if I should post this here or the December thread but we've slowly dropped to 28°. Last band of light snow is moving through. The snow has hung around longer than forecasted. There might be an inch on the patio table. I'd say more like a half inch on the grass. Nice to see some snow either way.

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Well, this storm delivered yet again for the Rockies....gosh, what a phenomenal start to their season....already more than 40" snow depth's being reported in the CO ski resorts and also Park City has some hefty totals as well.  Keep it coming!

 Dec 8th-10th Upper MW_West U.S. Snowfall Totals.png

 

Screen Shot 2023-12-10 at 6.46.27 AM.png

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