Midwest/GL Snowstorm 12/9 to 12/10

[bud2380]

The Euro finally joined the fray with showing the storm on Saturday.  Previous runs held back most of the energy until into next week and much further east.  

 

[bud2380]

NAM almost in range.

 

[bud2380]

18z GFS sped way up and weakened.  It's like a brother and sister that can't agree on anything between the GFS and Euro.  The Euro finally agreed with the GFS, so now the GFS decided to change it's mind.  

[jaster220]

Shall we commence the time-frame when everything goes to crap like the last "big phaser"? No sooner was a thread started and "poof" went the potential. All three globals had nearly the same boom-factor outcome on like the same day - and all were equally way off. The only thing I have to stand on is GRR's comment that this seems to be a more plausible version for a strong storm. Could still be SE and weak sauce tho too.

[Hawkeye]

00z GFS, GDPS (Canadian), ICON...... all blah.

[tStacsh]

The jinx strikes again.  Winter canceled 

[hawkstwelve]

Geez... What a whiplash this storm has been, even with the ensembles. It looks really good, then pulls back, then trends decent again, now flips back to meh. This one has been a struggle for the models so far.

[bud2380]

Within 96 hours for all global models to go from showing a snowstorm to literally nothing in 12 hours is unreal. Something about this pattern is stumping the models that’s for sure. May as well delete this thread. 

[Tom]

Hmmm, well...was this a good use of the AI Graph model in the medium/long range???

Check out the GEPS...lets see if we see the southern piece become the bigger player...

 

 

[bud2380]

GFS has the storm back at least but cuts way further NW.  Still nothing big, but something.

 

[bud2380]

UK shows a solid rain maker.  Good path for my area too, but too warm.

 

[MIKEKC]

WOW! This storm has essential disappeared for KC on most of the data runs this morning, looking to form nearby and quickly move off to the NE. 

After that, same ole same ole, not much cold and not much snow showing up for most on the medium-long range data. 

CHANGE!!! 

[Hawkeye]

Yep, this has turned into just a quick rain system here Friday night into Saturday morning.  Oh, well.

[hawkstwelve]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Hmmm, well...was this a good use of the AI Graph model in the medium/long range???

Check out the GEPS...lets see if we see the southern piece become the bigger player...

 

 

Yeah I went back to my post last Saturday about what the GraphCast was showing for this system and it ended up being pretty dang close. It dug the southern, larger system a little too far into the SE but overall it had a much better handle on this pattern 7 days out than the deterministic models have just a few days out. An early win for that model, IMO.

[Hoosier]

17 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Yeah I went back to my post last Saturday about what the GraphCast was showing for this system and it ended up being pretty dang close. It dug the southern, larger system a little too far into the SE but overall it had a much better handle on this pattern 7 days out than the deterministic models have just a few days out. An early win for that model, IMO.

Will certainly be interesting to watch the performance of the various AI models over time.  They seem to be promising in the early stages.  

Based on how they work (at least how I understand it), their vulnerability may be whenever we have an extremely anomalous pattern/setup as there may not be a lot of history to pull from in those circumstances.

[james1976]

The northern stream piece of this system may give me light snow Saturday. MPX is raising POPS and calling for at least light accumulations. 

[Minny_Weather]

Sorry Nebraskans, I'll be there this weekend so that's why this happened lol

[Timmy Supercell]

19 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Yep, this has turned into just a quick rain system here Friday night into Saturday morning.  Oh, well.

Considering the t'storm chances approaching this weekend over here that doesn't surprise me.

[jaster220]

Overnight consensus from the globals on a mid-990s SLP near the Straights or the Sault, MI Saturday pm bringing some kind of precipitation to Yooperland, then the next wave forms and whiffs SE with it's precip shield. How to score a nothingburger out of a bombstorm. Thx (again) LR models!

[Hawkeye]

The wettest models are down to only a couple tenths of an inch of rain here Friday night.  Some models show only sprinkles.  This system sure crapped the bed.

[OttumwaSnomow]

6 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The wettest models are down to only a couple tenths of an inch of rain here Friday night.  Some models show only sprinkles.  This system sure crapped the bed.

No surprise. I have recorded .25 December   after just .59 in November.  OTM has even less, DRIEST YEAR IN HISTORY.  Might as be witnesses of a historical  record. 

[Clinton]

Very thin line of decent rainfall targeting my area on the models today, not much of a margin for error and not much of a storm.

[gimmesnow]

If it's rain it can stay away. Go south! Far south!

[Timmy Supercell]

A lot of these stop right at or before my county. But its something! Looking forward to my first thunder since 9/30..

[Timmy Supercell]

22 hours ago, Clinton said:

Very thin line of decent rainfall targeting my area on the models today, not much of a margin for error and not much of a storm.

My first real wet storm potential since July I'm thinking. August started a trend toward way drier weather, so I'm going on nearly 5 months since a good rain.

[jaster220]

So, if you live in this one region of this one single county this winter storm is not a complete bust, lol

[jaster220]

Wondering if these snow squalls shown for Saturday night are legit or not? Also has some showers around here that DTX was discounting as well. Guess we'll see if a late-game rally in the making?

[Timmy Supercell]

Monthly rainfall totals (Ashland KY)

August: 3.28" (-0.63")
September: 0.79" (-2.53")
October: 2.02" (-0.95")
November: 0.92" (-2.06")

The 1st half of August consisted of more normal rain, then very little storm activity occurred during the 2nd half. And more than an inch of October's rain happened in the last two days of the month.. Half of November's rain fell on 11/22 (0.48").

If tomorrow gives around an inch, would be my wettest day since middle of summer.

[Madtown]

5 hours ago, jaster220 said:

So, if you live in this one region of this one single county this winter storm is not a complete bust, lol

lol..right, that's all lake stuff maybe a 20mi area. we might get 1 or 2 here. 35 mi away. back to 40 on Thurs 

[Clinton]

I got a 1/4 in of rain last night as a quick moving area of rain moved through.

[james1976]

Not sure if I should post this here or the December thread but we've slowly dropped to 28°. Last band of light snow is moving through. The snow has hung around longer than forecasted. There might be an inch on the patio table. I'd say more like a half inch on the grass. Nice to see some snow either way.

[Madtown]

1/2" of sleet and snow. Down to a frigid 31

[Tom]

Well, this storm delivered yet again for the Rockies....gosh, what a phenomenal start to their season....already more than 40" snow depth's being reported in the CO ski resorts and also Park City has some hefty totals as well.  Keep it coming!