CentralNebWeather Posted December 29, 2023 Report Share Posted December 29, 2023 Fun to look at, long way out. 0z GFS with a massive storm in the Central Plains on Jan. 9-10 with more storminess following. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 29, 2023 Report Share Posted December 29, 2023 Powerhouse on the 00Z GFS. That would make up for the lack of winter so far. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted December 29, 2023 Report Share Posted December 29, 2023 This is just such a refreshing map. I feel like its been way too freaking long since we've seen blue and green colors over Canada. It's been nothing but browns and reds for what feels like forever. No matter how the surface details play themselves out, I'm looking forward to this pattern shake up. It's going to be hard to be worse than what we just went through, so I'm pretty optimistic for at least something interesting around mid-January. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 29, 2023 Report Share Posted December 29, 2023 Oh boy...GFS is already trolling me on the storm around Jan 7-10...00z misses me to the northwest and 06z misses me to the southeast with the heavy snow track. That's not playing nice...lol 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted December 29, 2023 Report Share Posted December 29, 2023 Well at least the models are struggling with something. Sure beats telling us a torch for two weeks with a sudden shift. We've been dealing with that for the last 5 weeks. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2023 Report Share Posted December 29, 2023 Just now, sumweatherdude said: Looks like a nice Spring morning. That's what I was thinking when I saw this! Sadly, this DEC Torch has really hit businesses hard up north. The only real Winter conditions that the U.S. has seen is out west in the Rockies and PNW area...maybe the Sierra's... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted December 29, 2023 Report Share Posted December 29, 2023 The latest GFS antics for my area. That's a blizzard if I ever saw one! 1 2 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2023 Report Share Posted December 29, 2023 On 12/27/2023 at 11:10 AM, Hoosier said: Some signal for some lake effect snow somewhere around the southern end of Lake Michigan as we open the new year. Could include the IL shore but yet to be determined. Ingredients at this time look pretty modest overall, but basically any snow flying at all is a story given how snowless it has been lately in Chicago/nw Indiana. Bone thrown! Precipitation type is expected to be all snow as temperatures generally stay near or below freezing with plenty cold enough air aloft (850 mb temps of -8 to -10C). An area of light snow with embedded heavier snow showers due to the steepening lapse rate regime should pivot southeast and then exit east by the evening, with amounts up to a half inch to one inch or so. Slick spots may occur on untreated road surfaces. As flow turns north- northwesterly Sunday night, modest lake induced parameters but good convergence and fetch should support a continuation of lake effect snow showers (boosted PoPs to ~40%). Typically north- northwest flow favors portions of Lake and Porter Counties and locales just south, though a more northerly convergence orientation could bring activity as far west as eastern Illinois, including Chicago. Additional snow amounts from lake effect snow New Year`s Eve night into the morning of New Year`s Day could be up to 1-2", again with portions of Lake and Porter Counties most favored. Keep this in mind if you will be out and about on the roads. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2023 Report Share Posted December 29, 2023 East Asian Theory suggests not as much of a cutter...I do see a potential for this becoming a 2-part system with a lead front wave across the Upper MW and then a stronger second wave that SHOULD dig into the S Plains (Texarkana???). The LRC could help us with this forecast as we've seen this scenario in previous cycles. The PNA is not overwhelmingly (-) during this period so bonafide SER wouldn't cut this storm as much. In any event, a more eventful period shaping up as Canada is going to fill up with some Brutal cold finally. New Year, new pattern...I'm ready, HBU??? In reference to the above, we can see that there is a strong "lagging" trough over China and the northern energy that doesn't really phase. With that being said, there is plenty of blocking setting up prior to this systems arrival that I see the second piece ending up digging and phasing. Big Dog brewing??? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 29, 2023 Report Share Posted December 29, 2023 Long Range is looking better. I am just excited for the snow showers this Sunday! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2023 Report Share Posted December 29, 2023 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Bone thrown! Precipitation type is expected to be all snow as temperatures generally stay near or below freezing with plenty cold enough air aloft (850 mb temps of -8 to -10C). An area of light snow with embedded heavier snow showers due to the steepening lapse rate regime should pivot southeast and then exit east by the evening, with amounts up to a half inch to one inch or so. Slick spots may occur on untreated road surfaces. As flow turns north- northwesterly Sunday night, modest lake induced parameters but good convergence and fetch should support a continuation of lake effect snow showers (boosted PoPs to ~40%). Typically north- northwest flow favors portions of Lake and Porter Counties and locales just south, though a more northerly convergence orientation could bring activity as far west as eastern Illinois, including Chicago. Additional snow amounts from lake effect snow New Year`s Eve night into the morning of New Year`s Day could be up to 1-2", again with portions of Lake and Porter Counties most favored. Keep this in mind if you will be out and about on the roads. Albeit slowly, but surely...the pattern is finally showing signs of changing as we close out DEC and open up JAN. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2023 Report Share Posted December 29, 2023 1 minute ago, FV-Mike said: Long Range is looking better. I am just excited for the snow showers this Sunday! I would be feeling the same! Hope you can score enough to whiten up the ground....I'm digging the colder trends across the GL's region during the 3rd/4th. The Euro was the 1st model to show this and now the ICON/GGEM are lining up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted December 29, 2023 Report Share Posted December 29, 2023 Early Spring day. 49*. Mild breeze. Is this the calm before the storm? It’s not winter here, yet. 2 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 29, 2023 Report Share Posted December 29, 2023 Arctic air is lurking on the long range GFS finally 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2023 Report Share Posted December 29, 2023 0z vs 12z GEFS...nice trends over the last 24 hours....big ticket storm is certainly brewing early the following week! 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2023 Report Share Posted December 29, 2023 Using several LR forecasting methods, the week of the 14th, around MLK day, will be a period to watch as I see 2 potential big storms not that far off from each other...I think there will be a huge block up in S Canada and the 1st one could be a slower moving Low and then a bigger S Plains Monster up the OHV??? Is mother nature making up for lost time? The switch appears like it wants to flip hard mid month. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 29, 2023 Report Share Posted December 29, 2023 5 hours ago, Black Hole said: The latest GFS antics for my area. That's a blizzard if I ever saw one! The upcoming setup looks perfect for something big to roll through, so we shall see. Encouraging to say the least. Get the white stuff, no extreme cold following. Nice times, hopefully. Would be fun to see a massive blizzard. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 29, 2023 Report Share Posted December 29, 2023 1 hour ago, Tom said: Using several LR forecasting methods, the week of the 14th, around MLK day, will be a period to watch as I see 2 potential big storms not that far off from each other...I think there will be a huge block up in S Canada and the 1st one could be a slower moving Low and then a bigger S Plains Monster up the OHV??? Is mother nature making up for lost time? The switch appears like it wants to flip hard mid month. I have Jan 15-16 and Jan 20-22 as dates to watch in my earlier notes so I'd agree. On another note....we've all been talking about Jan 7-10 for awhile. Here is a tidbit from today's (12/29) Topeka NWS afternoon AFD: "The strongest signal for precipitation currently extends just beyond the end of the forecast period, in the Jan 8-10th period." 4 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 29, 2023 Report Share Posted December 29, 2023 6 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 30, 2023 Report Share Posted December 30, 2023 Some phasing on the 18z run. Long duration of backside snow and wind for the TC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 30, 2023 Report Share Posted December 30, 2023 OOZ GFS tonight with a full on powerhouse for 8th-10th. 974 Low in northeast Iowa. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted December 30, 2023 Report Share Posted December 30, 2023 00z GFS dumping almost 3 feet of snow over Sioux Falls. 2 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 30, 2023 Report Share Posted December 30, 2023 23 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 00z GFS dumping almost 3 feet of snow over Sioux Falls. Lock it in. Let's go! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 30, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2023 3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: 00z GFS dumping almost 3 feet of snow over Sioux Falls. Lol I love those types of runs. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 30, 2023 Report Share Posted December 30, 2023 On average January is the coldest month of the year at Grand Rapids with a mean of 24.8° on average it is also the snowiest month with 22.6” and the average rain/meted snowfall is 2.52”. While on average January is the coldest month there have been many years where February has been colder and in 1960 and 1931 March was colder than January. There also have been many years where December or February have had more snowfall. The coldest January at Grand Rapids was in 1912 with a mean of 11.8° The warmest January on record is 34.2 in 1932. None of the top 10 coldest January’s happened in the last 23 years the last top ten was in 1994 with a mean of 14.5° Last year had the 5th warmest with a mean of 31.7. 2006 was the 3rd warmest with 33.2 and 2020 was the 7th warmest with 31.3° The most snowfall of 46.8” was in 1999. In the last 23 years 2004 is in 5th place with 44.2” and 2014 is in 7th place with 41.9” The lowest January snowfall of 0.8” was in 1933 the only January so far in the last 23 years in the top ten least snowy January’s was in 2001 with 4.1” good for 7th place. It is now time to see if the warmth and low snowfall totals continue into January 2024. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted December 30, 2023 Report Share Posted December 30, 2023 00z EPS showing growing agreement on a drop in 850mb temps starting around the 9th. Unfortunately from there it's anyone's guess where we go. Either we drop into the freezer (-29c) or we warm up to above normal (+12c). Nothing like a 41 degree spread to inspire confidence in the upcoming pattern change. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 30, 2023 Report Share Posted December 30, 2023 Just now noticing a January thread was created. I don't see any significant snowstorm chances coming in the near future, but I would like to see what the stretch between Super Bowl and Easter provides. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 30, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2023 Models are consistent in showing a strong SLP with major storm potential @ hr 240 in their respective runs. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2023 Report Share Posted December 30, 2023 Just now, Minny_Weather said: Models are consistent in showing a strong SLP with major storm potential @ hr 240 in their respective runs. Big Dog in the works…someone is gonna get crushed 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted December 30, 2023 Report Share Posted December 30, 2023 12z GFS and CMC both take the storm around the 5th/6th further north than they have on previous runs. That one might come into play for some NE/SD/MN/IA folks if that's a new trend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted December 30, 2023 Report Share Posted December 30, 2023 15 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 12z GFS and CMC both take the storm around the 5th/6th further north than they have on previous runs. That one might come into play for some NE/SD/MN/IA folks if that's a new trend. Yup, that's the pattern. It's gonna head north and leave southern Wisconsin and everything south and east with warmth and rain. Supposed to go on a snowboard trip to the UP the weekend of the 20th and they aren't even open yet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 30, 2023 Report Share Posted December 30, 2023 What a monster on the gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 30, 2023 Report Share Posted December 30, 2023 3 potential storms to watch between the 5th-14th. 2 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 30, 2023 Report Share Posted December 30, 2023 All aboard the storm train 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2023 Report Share Posted December 30, 2023 Well, this has escalated quickly...#SouthwestTwoMidwestConnection....love seeing these cold troughs coming down and dumping snows in the mountains up here. It was just a matter of time before this happened...LFG! 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2023 Report Share Posted December 30, 2023 Huge uptick on the 12z GEFS... 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted December 30, 2023 Report Share Posted December 30, 2023 FWIW, the GraphCast is much further south with the storm around the 9th when compared to the other models. Although, it was late to the game for having the correct placement with the Christmas storm so that could be happening again here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted December 30, 2023 Report Share Posted December 30, 2023 This has taken a interesting turn.. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted December 30, 2023 Report Share Posted December 30, 2023 Now this is looking more like winter... 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2023 Report Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Now this is looking more like winter... #buildtheglacier 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.