January 2024 Observations and Discussion

[Minny_Weather]

This is a pretty horrendous, depressing pattern to be entering.

[hawkstwelve]

12 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said:

This is a pretty horrendous, depressing pattern to be entering.

Yeah ain't nothing pretty about the final frame or really anything leading up to it. Nasty pattern. Probably going to have to wait till at least the 2nd week of February for the MJO to hopefully move into a more favorable phase and the jet extension to buckle a bit.

Until then, pretty much a nationwide torch. I guess it may be kind of nice after 7+ days of negative temperatures.

[hawkstwelve]

Interesting bit in this afternoon's AFD. Never heard of "blow ice" before.

Greater concern areas for visibility reductions in blowing snow
would be with the strongest gusts anticipated in the higher
elevation areas of southwest MN Saturday night. As we progress
through Sunday, temperatures will finally warm through the teens
to projected highs in the 20s for most areas. While this sounds
balmy after our recent cold days, the warmer temperatures will
also increase the chance for pavement temperatures to increase
enough that drifting snow could partially melt and refreeze (AKA
"blow ice"). Confidence in this developing is moderate, around
50%, as there are other factors that would come into play. More
sunshine may help warm the pavement enough to melt the drifting
snow, as would greater amounts of traffic (per discussion with
Dept of Transportation experts). However, we could see
increasing high clouds through the day in advance of an
approaching wave. Will this be enough to keep the pavement
cooler? At any rate, those with travel plans will want to
monitor conditions.

[chescowxman]

Here in East Nantmeal Twp PA in the NW Philly burbs we ended up with 4.5" of snow today. This was our largest snow event in almost 2 years - since the 5.8" on Jan 28-29, 2022. Our snow drought has been impressive! Today's snow brings us to 11.2 inches for the season - which is 0.1" above normal through today.

[Minny_Weather]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Yeah ain't nothing pretty about the final frame or really anything leading up to it. Nasty pattern. Probably going to have to wait till at least the 2nd week of February for the MJO to hopefully move into a more favorable phase and the jet extension to buckle a bit.

Until then, pretty much a nationwide torch. I guess it may be kind of nice after 7+ days of negative temperatures.

At least during the seemingly endless warm December, EPS weeklies sort of hinted at a pullback of some sort in the second week of January (which happened). Now, it's just a constant endless eastern trough and split flow between the mountain ranges. Just looks terrible and we may not have a shot at more winter until March. 

[Andie]

Cold night ahead.  Clear calm skies.  
Low 20*

Currently 28. 36 tomorrow 

[jaster220]

On 1/18/2024 at 8:05 AM, Tom said:

ORD is at 18.1" for the season but will add to this today and tomorrow...what a turnaround and the pattern is ripe for the region to add more before this Historic JAN is over.

Some Snow Stats...who thought MSP would struggle this much??

 

".who thought MSP would struggle this much??"

I did. I picked ORD to beat MSP in the contest thread. I also made a post about 6 weeks ago saying that they would not see much snow this season. 

[Grizzcoat]

It may not be correct- but tonights GFS run is MUCH different in the 8-10 day range with a storm and cold air for many.

Day 9.5 last 3 runs-

 

[Grizzcoat]

It's also MUCH different in the longer range. Day 10-12.

 

[hawkstwelve]

Just a slight change over Alaska...

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 21/9 there was 0.8” of snowfall and a reported 12” on the ground here in MBY I have 14” on the ground. There was 54% of possible sunshine for one of the sunniest days this year so far. For today the average H/L is 31/18 the record high of 64 was set in 1906 and the record low of -15 was set in 1984. The most snowfall was 6.8” in 1963 the most on the ground was 21” in 1979. Last year the H/L was 36/31 and there was a trace of snow on the ground. Here are some snowfall totals as of January 19^th at Grand Rapids for January 30.8” and for the season 42.1” with 12” on the ground (14” here in my yard.  At Muskegon for January 23.7” for the season 41.1” and 11” on the ground. At Lansing 16.8” for January, 21.6” for the season and 6” on the ground.

 

[Grizzcoat]

Say what you will about the long range GFS- but something is going on with it's long range. Anyways, no expert. This guy is pretty good 

[Clinton]

This is  a lot of moisture for January in Missouri.  The January average precip for me is just over an inch so nearly a full months worth of precip is coming over the next week.  With this falling on frozen ground it will likely generate the runoff water my area has badly needed.

[OttumwaSnomow]

Can some one tell me is this some kind of record? I doubt its a Iowa record. But  Im very confident  that this must be a record  for this part of Iowa! I still need to analyze  things, but coupled with temps, windchills,  stress on the community  these past 11 days are hands down the brutal strectch of winter weather of my 60 years alive!!  Any place I have lived!

[Niko]

Currently at 4F under deep blue skies along w a very nice snow cover. Detroit currently has a 7" snow depth. Here Macomb, Lake Huron helped yesterday by adding nice 3-5 inch amounts. I will take pics and take a measurement too.

 

Note: Both events equaled a 4-8" amounts. Not too shabby at all.

[Niko]

21 hours ago, Up_north_MI said:

It’s been snowing hard off and on here at our place in northern St Clair county all morning, probably picked up 5-6 inches in the past 6 hours and it’s really coming down hard now as I type this. Heading back up to northern lower this afternoon so hopefully the snow stops so they can get the roads cleared up. I’m going to go out and measure after this snow band moves through but I’m thinking there’s 8-10” total on the ground around here right now.

That Lake did provide the goods. At times, it was coming down really hard and stacked up in a heart beat. I never thought Lake Huron could be that friendly.... That streamer made a beat-line straight at Macomb...sweet!!!

[Tom]

So, here we go with Round 2....both 10mb/30mb Strat warming ongoing...

 

At 30mb, its even stronger than the last warming...

 

 

 

Over the past few days, the JMA has been the only model showing the MJO head into the NULL phase rather quickly before months end...this has been quite the battle as every single model had different solutions.  

 

Unexpectedly, the GEFS ext just updated their run and low and behold, we have some similarities...now I see why the last 2 GFS Operational runs push the colder air farther south into the Lower 48.  Is this a hiccup or something that can manifest into reality?

 

[Tom]

To date, ORD is up to 20.0" of snowfall...let's keep it going...

 

[WinterSquall23]

Congrats Niko!  That’s pretty cool!  I don’t think I have seen a lake effect that big from Lake Huron for a few years. We did pretty well with that first storm. There was point I thought we were going to lose some trees. Thankfully, it warmed up enough to melt the ice, before we went on the deep freeze.  

[chescowxman]

13.5 for the low this AM.  Areas of blowing snow which could cause some of the rural roads near open fields across the area to get recovered with snow. Winds will increase this PM and it will be very cold with high temps in the low 20's. Tomorrow will also be below freezing marking our 7th straight day we have failed to pass the freezing mark. The good news is Monday we will approach or maybe in some areas climb to just above freezing. We should then see milder temps with highs in the 40's for the rest of the week with rain chances almost every day starting Tuesday night.
Records for today: High 67 (1951) / Low minus 8 (1984) / Rain 2.18" (1979) / Snow 5.5" (2000).
Of note yesterday January 19th back in 1994 was the only day in recorded Chester County weather history that the temperature failed to get above zero for the day. The high was 1 below zero with a low of 11 below zero.

[Andie]

29*. Calm.clear. 

High of 36 today then 40% chance of cold rain Monday with 50*

Edit: Just for grins - FALLING IGUANAS* possible this weekend in Southwest Florida as the coldest air of the season moves in Sunday morning. Heads up. 

[hawkstwelve]

I was wondering if this last burst of cold air would be enough for me to reach my coldest temperature ever recorded before we warm back up. Sure enough, we reached -21.5 earlier this morning, which is good for my new lowest reading ever recorded on my PWS! This breaks the previous record set just a little under a week ago. 

So over the past two weeks we've received about 20 inches of snow and broke two personal records of coldest readings ever recorded. We've also recorded 11 of the past 12 days with low temperatures below zero and 7 of the past 9 days with highs in the single digits or lower. Not too shabby at all!

[Hoosier]

December was wetter than average for Chicago, and January is locked in to be wetter than average since January precip to date has already exceeded the monthly average.  Was digging into some stats, and out of the 25 prior El Ninos going back to 1950, NONE of them had Dec, Jan and Feb all being wetter than average, so will be chasing some history next month.  

[hawkstwelve]

I guess you could say there are some differences between the GFS and ECMWF at day 7.

[westMJim]

GO LIONS!!!! The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 24/2 there was 0.2” of snowfall. There now has been 15 days in a row of at least a trace of snowfall at GRR. There is 11” on the ground at GRR and 13” here in my yard.  There was 34% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 30/18 the record high of 61 was set in 1906 and 2017. The record low of -15 was set in 1984. The most snowfall of 6.1” fell in 1963 the most snow on the ground was 22” in 1963. Last year the H/L was 32/30.
 

[westMJim]

Some weather history for today in southern Lower Michigan

1984: The temperature hits a record low of 15 below zero at Grand Rapids for the second consecutive day. The temperature at Lansing only manages to reach zero degrees during the day.

1984, the overnight temperature dropped to -21 degrees in Detroit! This is the second-lowest overnight temperature ever recorded for the city of Detroit.

Across the USA

1963: Up to 3″ of snow falls on San Francisco, their heaviest since 1887.

1985: Jacksonville, Florida, recorded its all-time record low of 7 degrees. Macon, Georgia, had its coldest day ever with a temperature of 6 degrees.  It was the coldest Inauguration day in history as President Reagan is sworn in for a second term during cold and winds that resulted in wind chill readings of 30 degrees below zero. Because of the bitter cold temperatures, many outdoor Inauguration events were canceled, and President Reagan was sworn in the Capitol Rotunda.

1999: A major tornado outbreak occurred from the southwest into central and northeast Arkansas during the afternoon and evening. In the Little Rock Area, 30 tornadoes tracked across 15 counties. Homes and businesses were damaged or destroyed in Little Rock, Beebe, McRae, and areas farther north and east. Eight deaths resulted from the tornadoes, with 140 to 150 injuries also reported

 

[chescowxman]

Today will be our 7th straight day since our temperature has risen above freezing which was last Sunday at 330pm. Some spots should just get above the freezing mark tomorrow...but some higher locales may just fall short of freezing This is now the longest stretch of sub-freezing weather since the 14 days from December 26, 2017 thru January 8, 2018. Monday and Tuesday look like the driest days of the week before rain chances are around almost every day through Friday. Temps could reach the 50's by Friday - combined with snow melt expect the sump pumps to be a pumpin!

Records for today: High 67 (1906) / Low 11 below (1984) / Rain 1.88" (1902) / Snow 10.0" (2014)

[Niko]

Arctic air still holding a good grip here w no melting. True January weather going on and what a turn around from December. I'd say that is a major pattern change. Tbh, kinda looking forward to a January Thaw coming up, but hoping it does not last too long. Also, considering this is a strong nino winter, I'd call this super stretch cold weather and snowcover a "Real Bonus."

[Tom]

As the incoming JAN Thaw rears its ugly head, I wonder how much that wet snow that fell will subdue the snow melt.  Anyone that lives farther away from the city of Chicago fair a better chance of holding onto it longer.  The NW burbs should be far enough away that temps don't torch into the 40's this week and DP's appear to be held in the low/mid 30's for most of the MW/GL's.  I hope to see the snow pack in tact by end of this coming week...what happens the following week is still crap shoot as there could be a solid but brief cold snap for the GL's/OHV.  I'm eyeing a big time Ground Hog's day Storm around here in the 4 corners that will eventually head East into a massive Bowling Ball for the opening week of FEB.  This pattern looks to resemble the Christmas Day Beast.  I expect to see a lot of trends for more blocking across S Canada.  

[Madtown]

58 minutes ago, Tom said:

As the incoming JAN Thaw rears its ugly head, I wonder how much that wet snow that fell will subdue the snow melt.  Anyone that lives farther away from the city of Chicago fair a better chance of holding onto it longer.  The NW burbs should be far enough away that temps don't torch into the 40's this week and DP's appear to be held in the low/mid 30's for most of the MW/GL's.  I hope to see the snow pack in tact by end of this coming week...what happens the following week is still crap shoot as there could be a solid but brief cold snap for the GL's/OHV.  I'm eyeing a big time Ground Hog's day Storm around here in the 4 corners that will eventually head East into a massive Bowling Ball for the opening week of FEB.  This pattern looks to resemble the Christmas Day Beast.  I expect to see a lot of trends for more blocking across S Canada.  

Seeing 40's next week up this way...please say it ain't so!

[Clinton]

This was a memorable stretch of weather.  I'm good with a little warm up.

 

NWS Kansas City

 

@NWSKansasCity

 

It's cold and it's been cold! The past week from 1/13 to 1/19 was the coldest week on record for that period. And, it wasn't even all that close.

 

 

 

NWS Kansas City

 

@NWSKansasCity

 

This morning's low temperature of -7° F at

@Fly_KansasCity

ties 1984 for second coldest January 20th. The record for today is -14° F set in 1985.

[Hawkeye]

Models have most or all of our snow melting by Groundhog Day.

[Minny_Weather]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

Models have most or all of our snow melting by Groundhog Day.

Thinking it'll be about the same up here. We actually don't get above freezing until next weekend. But when we do, it'll come with sun.

[Minny_Weather]

Ensembles are actually consistent in pushing this death ridge out of the way near the end of their respective runs. Overall, it does look like we could see a pattern shift around the second week of February. Still a depressing pattern to be entering, but for now, it does appear that there is finally a faint light at the end of the tunnel and we could see a return of Winter in February.

Best it comes then, I think the general consensus is that by March everyone is longing for Spring.

[james1976]

MSP has only received 7.2" of snow this season. And there's little to nothing in the foreseeable future. 

[Beltrami Island]

29 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said:

 

Best it comes then, I think the general consensus is that by March everyone is longing for Spring.

I'll be the exception....

When it's good, March snowmobiling is the best. Long days, bright sun, and the potential for the biggest snowstorms of the season. I'd gladly give up December snowmobiling to guarantee it in March. 

I guess the caveat is you probably have to be in traditional snow area... UP, Northern Minnesota or Northern Wisconsin, etc

[hawkstwelve]

Lots of wind and blowing snow here today. Got up to 23.5, our highest temp since 1/10.

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, james1976 said:

MSP has only received 7.2" of snow this season. And there's little to nothing in the foreseeable future. 

Last year, they were at 52.5" through January 20.  I don't think anybody really expected another elite snowfall year at MSP, but the turnaround has been extreme.

[tStacsh]

2 hours ago, Beltrami Island said:

I'll be the exception....

When it's good, March snowmobiling is the best. Long days, bright sun, and the potential for the biggest snowstorms of the season. I'd gladly give up December snowmobiling to guarantee it in March. 

I guess the caveat is you probably have to be in traditional snow area... UP, Northern Minnesota or Northern Wisconsin, etc

I love winter storms but I’m not a winter guy per se.  I’m over winter already.  Bring on the thaw if it ain’t going to blizzard!   But yeah sucks for winter recreation and those that count on it for revenue.  

[Andie]

38 rain and dropping in DFW area but NNW and N there’s ice.  
It’s ok. They can have it but it could slip into Ft Worth.