January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Not bad in my opinion, although I'm biased because it gave me 2+ feet of snow. Not a run goes by without giving me 20+ " of snow 

 

Hopefully totals here increase. They usually do. 

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Druncle an outlier, imagine that

Wrong. GEFS is also cold. 

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

8 minutes ago, Timmy said:

It snows a lot in Sunriver 

Usually. This year has been a dud so far, just 2 days this season where we got some wet snow over the night, only for it to melt at daytime. I'm excited for that to change

[Slushy Inch]

Best ensemble for heights yet.

[Kolk1604]

12z GEPS was also snowy 

 

[SeanNyberg]

Constantly telling weather enthusiasts that it’s difficult for snow storms to setup in the PNW or that longterm models aren’t reliable for detailed forecasting…

 

It’s amazing how clear it is that some folks on here are just insufferable in real life.

”my son is going to play football in college!”

- you know only 1.6% of players ever make it to the NFL

”yes, literally everyone knows that. Not a single person needs to be reminded of that.”

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

12z GEPS was also snowy 

 

Much better!! 

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS Day 12 (4-run trend) Real nice!

[Snownerd3000]

We vibing.

[Kolk1604]

Snowiest GEFS run yet? 

 

[Dave]

10 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Usually. This year has been a dud so far, just 2 days this season where we got some wet snow over the night, only for it to melt at daytime. I'm excited for that to change

The coldest temp I've ever experienced was in Sunriver -17. That was chilly. Neither of our cars would start so skiing was a challenge that day. Some stupid kids walked over some frozen ice (not sure if it was a pond or a chunk of the Deschutes). They broke through the ice. Luckily it wasn't too deep and they got out, but rescue was called to the scene.

[iFred]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Hardly new. Clown range Goofus always overdoes the cold air advection.

Looking forward to the upper 40s and haze while you're rooting for more 60 burgers.

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

Constantly telling weather enthusiasts that it’s difficult for snow storms to setup in the PNW or that longterm models aren’t reliable for detailed forecasting…

 

It’s amazing how clear it is that some folks on here are just insufferable in real life.

”my son is going to play football in college!”

- you know only 1.6% of players ever make it to the NFL

”yes, literally everyone knows that. Not a single person needs to be reminded of that.”

WTF?

[snow_wizard]

Kind of holy sheit improvement on the GEFS.   Wow!

[The Cats Meow]

7 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Snowiest GEFS run yet? 

 

Throw that run out.  It doesn't show a dry slot over the swamp. :)*

[SeanNyberg]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

WTF?

Not you  You’re great!

I’m referring to those who like to dump cold (or warm in this case) water on everyone’s excitement seeing potential snow and cold. I find it reductive to constantly tell people snow is difficult and GFS is unreliable. It’s attention seeking behavior that should’ve been left on the grade school playground.

Keep posting your excitement. It’s fun to watch. The world needs more joy and enthusiasm.

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, The Cats Meow said:

Throw that run out.  It doesn't show a dry slot over the swamp. :)*

Here. The only swamp I know

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

10 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Snowiest GEFS run yet? 

 

11.8" in bend? Too dry, throw it out 

[snow_wizard]

 

6 minutes ago, iFred said:

Looking forward to the upper 40s and haze while you're rooting for more 60 burgers.

Haze forecasting is tough!

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said:

Not you  You’re great!

I’m referring to those who like to dump cold (or warm in this case) water on everyone’s excitement seeing potential snow and cold. I find it reductive to constantly tell people snow is difficult and GFS is unreliable. It’s attention seeking behavior that should’ve been left on the grade school playground.

Keep posting your excitement. It’s fun to watch. The world needs more joy and enthusiasm.

Ok...that makes sense.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Here. The only swamp I know

How the hell is snow shown that far south in Mississippi

[Gradient Keeper]

18z NWS/NCEP Pacific Surface Analysis

Does anything stand out?

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

We vibing.

Is that cat real?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

25 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

Constantly telling weather enthusiasts that it’s difficult for snow storms to setup in the PNW or that longterm models aren’t reliable for detailed forecasting…

 

It’s amazing how clear it is that some folks on here are just insufferable in real life.

”my son is going to play football in college!”

- you know only 1.6% of players ever make it to the NFL

”yes, literally everyone knows that. Not a single person needs to be reminded of that.”

EDITED:

Agree.  

Edited January 2 by Brian_in_Leavenworth

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Is that cat real?

 Bro I don't know. The vibe cat gif had been around a while I think. I saw the bongo player was added in a discord I was part of and I added the twerking gal. Fun fact, she is/was a state senator for Rhode Island when she posted this in 2022.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Hmmm. Looks like freezing rain and rain spreading up from the south to me. 

I meant before that.  A nice period of dry snow before it warms.

[Snownerd3000]

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

18z NWS/NCEP Pacific Surface Analysis

Does anything stand out?

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

 Bro I don't know. The vibe cat gif had been around a while I think. I saw the bongo player was added in a discord I was part of and I added the twerking gal. Fun fact, she is/was a state senator for Rhode Island when she posted this in 2022.

That is almost as funny as the Hitler talking about a NW Arctic blast thing, but not quite.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I meant before that.  A nice period of dry snow before it warms.

An inversion actually sets up the end and keeps Portland below freezing after a good dump of snow in the teens

[Kolk1604]

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

On the other hand, snowstorms do happen in the PNW.  Not as often as advertised, of course, but you sound like it's impossible and never happens.   Yes there is a bit too much "No doubts" and other kinds of hype, but sometimes there is too much "that will never happen", snowstorms are extremely rare, etc.  

It's fair for people to be cautiously optimistic, and it's wise to not jump on the hype train as well.

I'm just glad I live in a place where snow is pretty normal.  Been heartbroken too many times in the other side of the state.

Theres nothing wrong with some realistic analysis too. Sometimes people get carried away but there’s also no need to get on people for posting fantasy maps. The excitement people have here is fun to see. 

 I think there are some naysayers here that act like it never snows here also. Despite many factors generally working against lowland snow it’s not like it’s impossible. I’ve seen several +6” snowfalls IMBY just in the last 5 years. 

[snow_wizard]

The GEFS control 850s get almost as cold as the GFS and it lasts longer.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty serious stuff here.

[Kolk1604]

End of the 12z JMA 

[snow_wizard]

I didn't notice earlier, but the ECMWF shows some places freezing again tonight.   Nice to get some cold in before the possible big stuff.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

End of the 12z JMA 

At least a moderately chilly event is looking pretty likely now.  I would say something like 38/28 for SEA type stuff.  Way colder is very possible.

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I didn't notice earlier, but the ECMWF shows some places freezing again tonight.   Nice to get some cold in before the possible big stuff.

Brief high of 42 today. Glad I'm off until Wednesday

[MossMan]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I didn't notice earlier, but the ECMWF shows some places freezing again tonight.   Nice to get some cold in before the possible big stuff.

Already back into the 30’s here after a high of 44. 
Low this morning of 32. 
Washed my truck today, was a bit chilly on the hands and I loved every second of it! 

[BLI snowman]

Historically mid January is overwhelmingly our best window for sustained big league cold. If nothing else it's great to finally have the (likely) best upper level dynamics of the season line up with that.