January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[MossMan]

28 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Lol, it’s been hard to keep quiet about the potential to co-workers, friends and family. I’m sure I’ll be getting a lot of questions soon. My boss knows I’m a weather geek I think I’m probably going to atleast have to mention we need to start doing some freeze protection at our water treatment sites. 

The owner of the building company that my wife works for asked her to get intel from me and present it to todays meeting they are having with the property managers, etc so they can plan accordingly after his phone apps started showing crazy outcomes for next week. I gave her the general meteorologist “it’s still a long ways out, a lot can change, blah blah blah” But I also told her that they should have their Plummer and heating contractors on standby since this could be a doozy! 

[Snownerd3000]

This weenie doesn't show the Euro on the same page as the GFS. 

 

[Snownerd3000]

12z is running and so far little change from the 6z out to hour 63

[Blizzard777]

Sadly me awaiting next post 

 

[RayRay]

Poor me and my sleep schedule… I think it’s time to buy that ski wax… anyways, plenty of coffees and sugar will fuel me today…

[Nov1985]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Icon is not really having it. 

ICON is a follow model, not a lead model. You can see it is slowly following the better models with progress. 

[Kolk1604]

6 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

12z is running and so far little change from the 6z out to hour 63

Looks improved at Day 4 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Holy cow, goodmorning, what a run to wake up to! Widespread insane snow totals in oregon. It is our turn!

Here’s a good write up of January 1969 for those that don’t remember it.

‘In late January 1969, the "Big Snow" blanketed Eugene and Springfield in a snowfall unlike anything normally seen in the southern Willamette Valley.

"It was so amazing … ," said Streeter, a 75-year-old Eugene resident who lived in Springfield back then. "It was at least 4 feet deep and then the drifts got up to 8 feet."

Almost two feet of snow — 22.9 inches — fell in the first 24 hours, stretching from Jan. 25 into Jan. 26, according to National Weather Service data taken at the Eugene Airport. The snowstorm boosted January 1969 snowfall totals to 47.1 inches, or nearly four feet. Due to this one epic event, the 1960s are still the snowiest decade on record in Eugene.

By comparison, that 47.1 inches is more snow than fell in Lane County during the entire 1980s (43.2 inches) or during the 1990s (31.1 inches), according to the Western Regional Climate Center.’

https://www.registerguard.com/story/news/2019/01/26/remembering-big-snow/1661347007/

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, Nov1985 said:

ICON is a follow model, not a lead model. You can see it is slowly following the better models with progress. 

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Looks improved at Day 4 

was just gonna post the run to run change.  That early week storm will pack a punch.  Wonder if favored areas will see snow before the front comes on Thursday/Friday

[Mid Valley Duck]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Icon is not really having it. 

One might say the Icon is not fine

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Looks improved at Day 4 

First trough trending stronger every run

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is probably what January 1930 or 1950 looked like on the models.

Or January 1969.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Is it gonna happen again? Goddam this is an insane stretch of model riding.

[Doinko]

 

[Phishy Wx]

50 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Yeah I can't imagine Mazama and Winthrop not breaking the record considering how cold Spokane is 

-40 would destroy this place if that verified.  would freeze the Spokane river, the falls and probably most of Lake Coeur D'Alene

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

This is absolutely phenomenal! I hope we get all the goods. but I can’t help but fear a catastrophic ice storm event at the end of all this! February 2021 was horrid and it’s a real possibility it happens again. 

[Slushy Inch]

Windstorm?

[Slushy Inch]

There it is 

[Snownerd3000]

Doesn't look like it from the model.  Breezy but not too bad.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 hours ago, The Blob said:

Well if it dumps like it looks like right now, I'll be sweeping the roof to keep the weight off.

Have you tried working outside below zero? things move differently.

[Snowdome]

It’s over now… Just told my wife to stock up on everything from Costco.

Feb 2021 we had just moved here from Florida and were absolutely not prepared for 2 inches of ice and no power for 10 days. We still haven’t had much snow here in Oregon City since we moved but I have a feeling this could change that… or we end up with 4 inches of ice this time. 
 

either way it’s been fun tracking this with y’all!

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a cloudy and drizzly at times 47/37 yesterday. It cleared out nicely in the evening, allowing for dense fog to form with a midnight low.

Hit 36 overnight, up to 40 now with clouds and showers around. The sky glowed an interesting purple color around sunrise a bit ago.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

This has been the best week of model riding in my 8 years of being a weather geek. Occasional bad runs, but mostly good runs, the bad runs make the good runs feel even better. The runs just keep looking better as we get closer which almost never happens, the ensembles have been amazing the last few runs, and it's a great time of year for cold and snow. 

 

12z great so far

[Mid Valley Duck]

Nice secondary surface low dives in for the Willamette valley late Tuesday into Wendesday.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

Nice secondary surface low dives in for the Willamette valley late Tuesday into Wendesday.

At the very least…it’s looking like Andrews gonna get nailed lol. 

[Kolk1604]

I think the GEM is improved, at least somewhat. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

INCOMING

[Slushy Inch]

!

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Looking good! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just perusing the models, the lobe of cold we are tracking for late next week begins moving into our hemisphere over the next couple days, helped along by the western trough/lower heights in W Canada starting this weekend.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

And here we go…

[Doinko]

Block looks kind of weak on the GEM but thankfully it isn't flying off north, should still be cold

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

INCOMING

 

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

!

Arctic Front looking juicy  

[Timmy]

Gem is improved but not as much as you would like

[Mid Valley Duck]

Just now, Timmy said:

Gem is improved but not as much as you would like

The model of consistency!

[Phishy Wx]

can we get that elusive region wide Blizzard?  too much to ask?

[Doinko]

Friday looks amazing on the GFS. Temps fall into the 20s with 5" of snow for PDX

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Smacked by an Arctic front.

[Slushy Inch]

Really like the snow rates on gfs