January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[FroYoBro]

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Pretty new here, aren’t you?  

Lol. Yeah, I have seen some very confident comments over the last two days. We have seen many arctic pushes in this time range get totally destroyed as we approach the event. 

[Minion]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We are starting to enter 2005/2011 territory if this ends up busting. 

Relax 

[Timmy]

As bad as the gem was it still has the polar lobe just north of the boarder for the entirety of the second half of the run

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

yup, the magic 120h rule

Almost there, just a couple of runs to go. 

[iFred]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

yup, the magic 120h rule

Even then, you and I both know that things can be over done in a model and not play out. Probably will take six hours before for us to be sure, unless you live in Spokane.

[van city]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Timmy said:

As bad as the gem was it still has the polar lobe just north of the boarder for the entirety of the second half of the run

It was closer than the 00z 

[RentonHill]

Just now, Timmy said:

As bad as the gem was it still has the polar lobe just north of the boarder for the entirety of the second half of the run

it might have even turned out good if it ran out as far as the GFS

[Phishy Wx]

GEM be like, Ya'll trippin'

[RentonHill]

Just now, van city said:

maybe he'll fly out here for the meetup!!

[Front Ranger]

19 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Phil, Jared, Mark Neilson, and Matt are not onboard. 
 

I really want to be! Need a few more boxes checked first. I know...lame.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So far this is a great gfs run. Idk what some of y’all talking about. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It was closer than the 00z 

0z too far west, 12z too far east. Tonight's 0z will be perfect, just watch.

[iFred]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

I really want to be! Nee a few more boxes checked first. I know...lame.

Never thought I would ever see you and Phil on the same page.

At least 2024 might be a Nina.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

11 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Mark Nelson says this is a non event. 

Not quite.  He just said -27 degree temps are extremely unlikely.  

[Minion]

It's like some of yall don't even read the models and just say whatever.

 

Everything looks good.

[Mid Valley Duck]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So far this is a great gfs run. Idk what some of y’all talking about. 

The ridging did some wonky stuff in the midrange but has reorganized very nicely

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Widespread single digits and negatives.

[iFred]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

maybe he'll fly out here for the meetup!!

Ha. He'd have to unblock me and let me read his ranty DM aloud.

[Minion]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Not quite.  He just said -27 degree temps are extremely unlikely.  

And he would be correct lol

[iFred]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

GEM be like, Ya'll trippin'

The only model that is the adult in the room.

[Iceresistance]

I came here to remind y'all that this is not fun and games, this could be an extremely dangerous situation.

I am also expecting this extreme cold as well.

Everyone needs to be prepared for an extremely cold event, model are indicating the polar vortex to come into the United States to either Montana, Idaho, or Washington State.

This is not 384 hour fantasyland, this is within 7 to 10 days.

[Timmy]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So far this is a great gfs run. Idk what some of y’all talking about. 

I don’t think anyone has said to the contrary. Other than it isn’t as cold as the 06z, which would be nearly impossible 

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I really want to be! Nee a few more boxes checked first. I know...lame.

Nothing wrong with keeping it real. Definitely understand what you’re saying. I’d still say we’re in a good spot overall but there’s a lot of time left on the clock. 

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, Timmy said:

As bad as the gem was it still has the polar lobe just north of the boarder for the entirety of the second half of the run

Yeah, but the thing is you usually need the Arctic front to push through immediately or it probably won't happen for those south of Seattle. Doesn't usually end well when the cold air mass is just chilling up north of the border for awhile.

Let's go Euro!

[DeepFriedEgg]

Just now, Timmy said:

I don’t think anyone has said to the contrary. Other than it isn’t as cold as the 06z, which would be nearly impossible 

Actually I believe it’s colder so far because of less undercutting snow events

[Timmy]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, but the thing is you usually need the Arctic front to push through immediately or it probably won't happen for those south of Seattle. Doesn't usually end well when the cold air mass is just chilling up north of the border for awhile.

Let's go Euro!

Sure I’m just making the point that it’s not far from greatness
 

[Phishy Wx]

6 minutes ago, van city said:

lol at Maue

[Mid Valley Duck]

UKMET is not on board.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Timmy said:

I don’t think anyone has said to the contrary. Other than it isn’t as cold as the 06z, which would be nearly impossible 

850mb temps look similar though. Not as snowy because the block doesn’t undercut.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

I came here to remind y'all that this is not fun and games, this could be an extremely dangerous situation.

I am also expecting this extreme cold as well.

Everyone needs to be prepared for an extremely cold event, model are indicating the polar vortex to come into the United States to either Montana, Idaho, or Washington State.

This is not 384 hour fantasyland, this is within 7 to 10 days.

 

[jakerepp]

359 people viewing right now. And we're still a week away. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

UKMET is not on board.

Troubling news 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

19 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Let's get it within 5 days.

Thats tomorrow. 

[westcoastexpat]

By the way, NOAA is doing Pacific recon flights to sample air masses off the coast, so that may give better skill in tomorrow's model runs.

[Slushy Inch]

20 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Phil, Jared, Mark Neilson, and Matt are not onboard. 
 

Seriously?

[Phishy Wx]

8 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

The ridging did some wonky stuff in the midrange but has reorganized very nicely

Clown is questionable at this point, real deal is next week

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Seriously?

Yep 

[High Desert Mat?]

Lol. You all are funny. This run has been solid. Only pull back I saw was less snow. Did you really think 6 feet was in its way?

[Kolk1604]

GEFS is still good