January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[the_convergence_zone]

Just now, DeepFriedEgg said:

Yah you're right this wouldn't even be considered an overrunning event unless the low tracked further north.

The storm behind it would be the overrunning one. A huge warm front will form given all of that baroclinicity out there.

[Mid Valley Duck]

Day 5 EPS

[DeepFriedEgg]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

AR plume pointed at northern CA at the end of the run... but don't see a way the air mass moderates in this situation without some kind of massive overrunning event.  

Yah you're right this wouldn't even be considered an overrunning event unless the low tracked further north.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It's just exciting to have the possibility of a historic event on the table. Just getting to this point is almost impossible, to see these runs is really something. The fact these are the most aggressive runs with cold in snow maybe ever since weather computers were invented is amazing and makes me think something special is coming.

[Mid Valley Duck]

EPS Day 6

[Cascadia_Wx]

EPS will be telling.

[Doinko]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

EPS Day 6

How does this compare to the 00z?

[iFred]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It's just exciting to have the possibility of a historic event on the table. Just getting to this point is almost impossible, to see these runs is really something. The fact these are the most aggressive runs with cold in snow maybe ever since weather computers were invented is amazing and makes me think something special is coming.

Might be the generational event that we have all be dreaming of. As modeled, the longevity aspect of this might put this up there as a once in a century kind of thing.

[Darrington Troll]

Cliff Mass says no, Micheal Snyder says yes. Pretty much a lock at this point. The gods have spoken. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

Just now, Doinko said:

How does this compare to the 00z?

Looks a little south and east to my untrained eye

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It's just exciting to have the possibility of a historic event on the table. Just getting to this point is almost impossible, to see these runs is really something. The fact these are the most aggressive runs with cold in snow maybe ever since weather computers were invented is amazing and makes me think something special is coming.

As Dewey pointed out recently, there has been something similar to this in the models just about every winter in recent years.

Doesn't mean this won't be the historic one, though!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Darrington Troll said:

Cliff Mass says no, Micheal Snyder says yes. Pretty much a lock at this point. The gods have spoken. 

Blank Cliff Mass.

[RentonHill]

850s are way better. More turds eliminated. 

[the_convergence_zone]

Just now, iFred said:

Might be the generational event that we have all be dreaming of. As modeled, the longevity aspect of this might put this up there as a once in a century kind of thing.

My Seattle-area perspective is that at minimum, we're looking at a cold event on par with the best ones of the past 10 years. Which is already a huge overachievement for a Nino year. 

Then you pair that with this crazy Kona low amplification scenario and I think you're absolutely right that the sky is the limit. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

EPS day 7

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

As Dewey pointed out recently, there has been something similar to this in the models just about every winter in recent years.

Doesn't mean this won't be the historic one, though!

Me and my brother talk about it, something changed a few years ago, we have had a bunch of snow here the last 5 years.

[RentonHill]

Day 9 vs last two runs

[Slushy Inch]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sensing this event is going to be very snowy for western WA.    Likely will be positioned perfectly between cold air and moisture sources. 

My thoughts precisely. Stalling and flattening of trough could result in longer period of snow somewhere

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, RentonHill said:

Day 9 vs last two runs

Let’s go! That colder 

[Doinko]

Just now, RentonHill said:

Day 9 vs last two runs

Wow, big improvement.

[Timmy]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

EPS day 7

looks almost identical to the GEFS

[RentonHill]

Day 9 500mb vs 00z

 

[Phil]

Tighter gradient on the mean as well.

[Cascadia_Wx]

EPS looking good.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Blank Cliff Mass.

Cliff hasn't said yes or no.  Last post was 24 hours ago, he expressed uncertainty.  

[TT-SEA]

But both the EPS and the control run are doing the elongation thing much more so than previous runs.

[Mid Valley Duck]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Hmm, GOA ridge looking a bit weak there.

Models are picking up on some ridge merging/reorganization in the Day 7-10 range

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Models are picking up on some ridge merging/reorganization in the Day 7-10 range

My fear is that Phil's all powerful Nino -NAO is going to swallow up our Pacific block.

Just gotta hope that the GOA block holds out long enough to force the cold air sufficiently in position.

[Cold Snap]

Models are looking great this morning!

[DeepFriedEgg]

Wow EPS is strikingly different from previous runs. Something changed, interested in seeing the Ensemble spread

[RentonHill]

Day 10 last 5 runs of 850s.

 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

My fear is that Phil's all-powerful -NAO is going to swallow up our Pacific block.

Just gotta hope that the GOA block holds out long enough to force the cold air sufficiently in position.

That doesn’t make physical sense but ok.  

Also -NAO trended weaker this run. Less of a poleward element to the NATL wavebreak.

[the_convergence_zone]

Just now, RentonHill said:

Day 10 last 5 runs of 850s.

 

Gotta love that trend.

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Me and my brother talk about it, something changed a few years ago, we have had a bunch of snow here the last 5 years.

Maybe breaking the January curse will finally mean we break the hot summer curse too.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Maybe breaking the January curse will finally mean we break the hot summer curse too.

That would be a dream come true. I dread the summer heat, it's a slow death..

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

That doesn’t make physical sense but ok.  

Also -NAO trended weaker this run.

Sure looks like a monster -NAO on these runs. GFS not so much.

 

[Mid Valley Duck]

Day 11 EPS. Growing signal for the Alaskan Ridge hanging on longer 

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

But both the EPS and the control run are doing the elongation thing much more so than previous runs.

Which makes sense if you really think about it. I suspect that trend will continue to some degree.

[DeepFriedEgg]

GEM GOTTA CAVE on tonight's 00z right???

[RentonHill]

My dad asked me how cold it was going to get...I asked him what he remembered about the winter of 1968/69 when he was living in Yakima. "Cold. Good duck hunting"  

cool story eh