January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I guess what I'm wondering is say in the last 15 years have we had a situation where at 1 week out every model was showing a big arctic event and have it all taken away and not happen at all?

Guess it depends on the definition of not happen at all. Even January 2005 led to a sad sack ice storm here.

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

The way the GFS just mows down the GOA blocking looks suspicious to me. Good chance the Euro/CMC trend more progressive, but I’ll wager the GFS is overdoing it.

As always a compromise of sorts seems likely rather than a full cave. Which still IMO at worst puts us in the crosshairs for a pretty good low level outflow event at least for a good chunk of the region. Non-event looking less and less likely.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Was there a big pull back at all?

I don't remember a pullback, but I think there was some waffling back and forth between the models with the temps and which was calling for higher. Ultimately Euro was closer in actual temps I think, but I do think GFS was the first to see the pattern. (Could be wrong though. Was just a lurker at the time.)

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It has been a long time since the NWS issued a sws about the possible cold this far out.

[Phishy Wx]

27 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

There isn't even much NAO blocking in North America when this gets set into motion. It's a pretty weird pattern progression, tough to find any matching analogs.

Tonga'd

[westcoastexpat]

4 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

This is like the war of 1812.... UK/Canada vs USA. Hopefully there's a different winner this time...

So you're rooting for the GFS?

Everyone knows 1812 was a victory for the Brits/Canada - they got what they wanted (i.e. for the US to bugger off)

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It has been a long time since the NWS issued a sws about the possible cold this far out.

Social media is a bad thing. Unless it’s used for politics, of course.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 minute ago, westcoastexpat said:

So you're rooting for the GFS?

Everyone knows 1812 was a victory for the Brits/Canada - they got what they wanted (i.e. for the US to bugger off)

Wow I just confirmed the stereotype that Americans suck at history.... what have I done....

[westcoastexpat]

Don't look at the 12Z ICON ensembles. 

[Snownerd3000]

I see it was a good run from the King. Vibes are back. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It has been a long time since the NWS issued a sws about the possible cold this far out.

I think it's a good move because social media hype has hit this story and with government offices being closed next Monday, when it could potentially be quite cold, they would want to make sure local governments have some time to plan and have contingencies rather than trying to pull people in on a 3-day weekend. 

[TT-SEA]

Pre-cursor...

[Anti Marine Layer]

Hope there will be a lot of snow. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Snow depth got up to 5" but now it's sunny, and the snow settled and compacted at 3". Off to work now, I'll be back to model riding at 8 something!

 

Perhaps I'll post a picture on the way to mt bachelor if it looks nice...

[Phil]

1 minute ago, westcoastexpat said:

So you're rooting for the GFS?

Everyone knows 1812 was a victory for the Brits/Canada - they got what they wanted (i.e. for the US to bugger off)

Difference between now and 1812 is we have a superior military but an inferior weather model.  

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Social media is a bad thing. Unless it’s used for politics, of course.

Except for this site, no? I believe forums are counted as part of social media. 

[LowerGarfield]

21 minutes ago, MWG said:

All I know is I can't do this for another week . I'm just glad I saw snow fall even though it didn't stick.

It snowed at your location today?

[Phishy Wx]

23 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Oh oh 

6 more hours, Euro tonight = golden

[fubario]

46 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty colors are back!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Mom is texting me asking what to do, she says the media is all over it and making it sound scary, I don't watch the news so I'm not sure. I told them get ready for some snow and cold for at least a few days, make sure you have gas for the generator.  I do believe it's coming and will be a decent to good event.

[westcoastexpat]

2 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Hope there will be a lot of snow. 

It's a bit too early to start forecasting snow chances. Verbatim the models are showing barely any snow due to the dry Arctic air mass. Odds would actually be better for Oregon in this sort of set up.

But global models are not going to pick up on arctic fronts this far out, and we know those can really produce in these situations.

At this point, I want to see some more clarity on how far the cold advances as I think that will make a big difference in the snow chances.

Personally I love snow and hate dry and cold so I'm hoping for a less cold solution than the operational runs are suggesting.

[runninthruda206]

IMG_1184.dng

Beautiful weather in Discovery Bay this weekend 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

It's a bit too early to start forecasting snow chances. Verbatim the models are showing barely any snow due to the dry Arctic air mass. Odds would actually be better for Oregon in this sort of set up.

But global models are not going to pick up on arctic fronts this far out, and we know those can really produce in these situations.

At this point, I want to see some more clarity on how far the cold advances as I think that will make a big difference in the snow chances.

Personally I love snow and hate dry and cold so I'm hoping for a less cold solution than the operational runs are suggesting.

I'd love to see a real arctic front like 1990 again. Even November 2010 was nothing compared to 1990. Most everyone on this forum have not experienced a powerful arctic front in the Puget Sound. I'm talking 70mph winds and a 20 degree temp crash in 1 hr. It was insane.

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Mom is texting me asking what to do, she says the media is all over it and making it sound scary, I don't watch the news so I'm not sure. I told them get ready for some snow and cold for at least a few days, make sure you have gas for the generator.  I do believe it's coming and will be a decent to good event.

Does your mom live out on the peninsula also? 

[Phishy Wx]

I heard the Indian model was rock solid, so we're going out for Indian tonight

[LowerGarfield]

16 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

So you're rooting for the GFS?

Everyone knows 1812 was a victory for the Brits/Canada - they got what they wanted (i.e. for the US to bugger off)

It's funny because in Canada, the War of 1812 is everywhere. You Canadians are taught that you won the war (I actually tend to agree with that since you avoided being conquered). In the US we are taught that while we did try to capture Canada, the main focus was impressment of sailors, the US outgunning the British navy, and that the British burned down the White House in revenge for York(Toronto). It was really a draw but because of Baltimore / Star Spangled Banner and the rout of the British at New Orleans (after the war had ended), we felt good enough to call it a win.

It's also funny because the war was huge for Canada remaining independent, but it has a lot of cultural significance here due to the anthem, the impact of the White House burning /current name, making Jackson a household name, and backstabbing the native Americans. People got mad back in 2014 when the British consulate made a joke about burning the white house with sparkler candles. Some people can't take a joke...or a model run. But the war is forgotten in the UK. 

That said, I'm rooting for Team Europe (not UK Met) to conquer us. Team Euro!!!

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Mom is texting me asking what to do, she says the media is all over it and making it sound scary, I don't watch the news so I'm not sure. I told them get ready for some snow and cold for at least a few days, make sure you have gas for the generator.  I do believe it's coming and will be a decent to good event.

I’ve got four texts from people in the last 24 hours or so basically asking if they should flee to equatorial regions.

[Perturbed Member]

I think the most positive thing I'm seeing about this is that there seems to be a decent amount of margin for error in terms of what can happen leading up to this and still get good results. That low blowing up Monday evening - Tuesday is looking pretty much like a lock now but it seems that can be allowed to happen and it is still possible or even likely that the cold air eventually makes it down. 

The crap GFS run is much less worrying with the Euro still holding relatively steady compared to other models. The GEM solution is great but it has looked wildly different every run for a while now. It is a pretty complex evolution given how hard the UKMET, GEM and GFS are flailing around run to run. 

[Phishy Wx]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Mom is texting me asking what to do, she says the media is all over it and making it sound scary, I don't watch the news so I'm not sure. I told them get ready for some snow and cold for at least a few days, make sure you have gas for the generator.  I do believe it's coming and will be a decent to good event.

did you send her copies of the GFS, GEM or Euro?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Does your mom live out on the peninsula also? 

In Port orchard right near my Business,  I can walk to her house.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

did you send her copies of the GFS, GEM or Euro?

I did try to explain how complex it all is.

All she said was well it feels like snow lol

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

I think the most positive thing I'm seeing about this is that there seems to be a decent amount of margin for error in terms of what can happens leading up to this and still get good results. That low blowing up Monday evening - Tuesday is looking pretty much like a lock now but it seems that can be allowed to happen and it is still possible or even likely that the cold air eventually makes it down. 

The crap GFS run is much less worrying with the Euro still holding relatively steady compared to other models. The GEM solution is great but it has looked wildly different every run for a while now. It is a pretty complex evolution given how hard the UKMET, GEM and GFS are flailing around run to run. 

When there is that much cold at the border it almost always finds a way to move south, not always but a lot of the time.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

I think the most positive thing I'm seeing about this is that there seems to be a decent amount of margin for error in terms of what can happens leading up to this and still get good results. That low blowing up Monday evening - Tuesday is looking pretty much like a lock now but it seems that can be allowed to happen and it is still possible or even likely that the cold air eventually makes it down. 

The crap GFS run is much less worrying with the Euro still holding relatively steady compared to other models. The GEM solution is great but it has looked wildly different every run for a while now. It is a pretty complex evolution given how hard the UKMET, GEM and GFS are flailing around run to run. 

Yeah, I’m not sure why that low is being viewed as such an inhibitor. It’s a surface feature and an open wave. It’d be different if it were phased with a massive ULL which led to SW’erly flow.

[MV_snow]

41 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty much all other have worked out in recent years though.  People forget the models have improved since 2005 for instance.

We still get these nasty bad runs though.

Even Jan 2020 wasn’t a total rug pull. Just ask our friends up north.

[CloudJunkie]

34 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

GFS was right on it if I remember. No one believed it.

"Only" got up to 108 IMBY, but the GFS was surprisingly on the money.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like the GFS has “lost the plot” for the time being. Glad to see the other models sticking with something decent at least.

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like the GFS has “lost the plot” for the time being. Glad to see the other models sticking with something decent at least.

lost, or just a POS?  maybe the latter 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Partly sunny with scattered showers currently, and 43 degrees. Hit a low of 39 early this morning. Mountains look to do well this weeekend.

Ended up with a 49/35 spread yesterday. Mostly cloudy with breezy south winds later on. Have yet to hit 50 this month at this location, could string together a pretty long stretch.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

lost, or just a POS?  maybe the latter 

I stole that line from Phil, but I think it describes what that model will often do quite well.

[Winterdog]

Had a midnight high so far of 41 and a low of 36.  Did have a shower of mixed rain and snow earlier, currently 39 and partly cloudy.