January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

My newest member of the car family.

2021 gt500, found it with 200 miles and got a good deal on this hard to find car in this color.

[TacomaWx]

11 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

Even Jan 2020 wasn’t a total rug pull. Just ask our friends up north.

We did have a little snow and a couple days in the mid 30s in January 2020. Overall that’s not terrible and better than nothing. IMO here in Western Washington north of OLM I expect we see at the very least something similar to that. Potentially more than that hopefully.  Either way I am hoping for something much better than that. 

[Phishy Wx]

been snowing to beat the band since like 4am, nothing to show for it

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

We did have a little snow and a couple days in the mid 30s in January 2020. Overall that’s not terrible and better than nothing. IMO here in Western Washington north of OLM I expect we see at the very least something similar to that. Potentially more than that hopefully.  Either way I am hoping for something much better than that. 

That’s about the lowest bar possible for an event down here. It just got chilly for a few days with cold rain and some highs around 40

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That’s about the lowest bar possible for an event down here. It just got chilly for a few days with cold rain and some highs around 40

I remember some pretty heavy graupel showers here with that. Definitely disappointing though, but I didn't follow models or anything much back then.

[Phishy Wx]

who's the black hole staff person, never seen that name before

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

That’s about the lowest bar possible for an event down here. It just got chilly for a few days with cold rain and some highs around 40

Yeah, I am really hoping that we see something much better more on the scale of December 2021. No idea what’ll happen at all yet though!
 I just think atleast here up north we will see a little something at the worst. I am worried there will be a N/S cutoff of disappointment somewhere in the region which sucks. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

41 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I see it was a good run from the King. Vibes are back. 

I drank some of these this morning!

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

who's the black hole staff person, never seen that name before

He's been around for ages.

[SeanNyberg]

It's pretty funny to click through the Daily High/Low ensembles and see the Euro and GEM showing extremes and the GFS staying moderate. This isn't a comment on the likelihood of either outcome, rather it is comment on how bat sh** crazy that looks to folks who've been following this stuff for a long time.

GFS was always what you looked at when you wanted to see extremes and feed the fantasy. It was the ice cream sundae and the tray of brownies.

The Euro was always what you looked at when you had travel plans and wanted to be assured that nothing extreme was expected. It was the chicken and rice w/ steamed veggies.

It is just a funny and feels weird.

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

I drank some of these this morning!

 

How much are they paying you?

[iFred]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

How much are they paying you?

Rather than being corporate shills for a drink that tastes like Blue Fabuloso, people should just close their eyes, meditate, and follow the sacred mantra.

 

 

[Ken in Wood Village]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Interesting because the 12Z Euro model has brought the cold air into my area sooner than the 00Z run. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

It's pretty funny to click through the Daily High/Low ensembles and see the Euro and GEM showing extremes and the GFS staying moderate. This isn't a comment on the likelihood of either outcome, rather it is comment on how bat sh** crazy that looks to folks who've been following this stuff for a long time.

GFS was always what you looked at when you wanted to see extremes and feed the fantasy. It was the ice cream sundae and the tray of brownies.

The Euro was always what you looked at when you had travel plans and wanted to be assured that nothing extreme was expected. It was the chicken and rice w/ steamed veggies.

It is just a funny and feels weird.

And the bad part is sometimes the silly gfs is correct!

[Doinko]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, this would be a way bigger whiff from the Euro if this thing fizzles. It never looked remotely this good in 2020, let alone for 5-6 consecutive runs and coupled with the EPS support.

Yeah, I think every Euro run since that first 00z run showing a blast has shown something ranging from very cold backdoor air mass to a massive arctic blast. No run has completely given us nothing yet, which is encouraging. If this completrly busts I'll be pretty surprised after the Euro runs

[RentonHill]

Just a few stinkers left. 30% glancing blow, 30% legit and 30% prolific. At this range we have to start giving the operational more weight though ya? Just how much idk but I’m glad they are in the better camp 

[Requiem]

More than just a glimmer of hope left, huh... good afternoon folks 

[Doinko]

Look at those dewpoints!

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like a nice event late in the run on the EC but I’m mentally prepared for a rug pull and a big nothing burger.

[westcoastexpat]

NWS forecaster discussions for western WA and OR on the long range forecast 

[snow_wizard]

EPS bottomed out at -11.6 on the 850s.  Colder than yesterday's 12z.

[Mid Valley Duck]

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Just a few stinkers left. 30% glancing blow, 30% legit and 30% prolific. At this range we have to start giving the operational more weight though ya? Just how much idk but I’m glad they are in the better camp 

Here it is for Portland at hour 150. 40% hit -11.8c or lower, 30% are -4.9 to -10.7 and the remaining 30% are warmer than that. Both the Op and control fall in the middle 30% but eventually get to the coldest bucket 2 days later.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Better. I would expect the 18z/0z GFS to start the trend back to the EURO

[snow_wizard]

JMA

[westcoastexpat]

Here are the 12Z ECMWF ensembles

[snow_wizard]

Even today it's only 39 out there right now.

[RaleighHillsRunner]

Based on my years of lurking this feels like it’s all going to plan. The historic runs, pepto eye candy, the first rug pull, trusted models hanging on to a moderated solution, etc. Seems like most folks are in for something better than decent, especially considering how terrible expectations were just a month ago.

I’m def curious how these newer AI models perform - seems like the Spire has been all in for days right? 

tl;dr - It’s still coming!  

[van city]

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Even today it's only 39 out there right now.

Feels downright chilly today. Sure would be nice to get a dusting Monday before the real goods arrive. 

[Cold Snap]

12 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Just a few stinkers left. 30% glancing blow, 30% legit and 30% prolific. At this range we have to start giving the operational more weight though ya? Just how much idk but I’m glad they are in the better camp 

Nice to see that the OP isn’t an outlier.

[Front Ranger]

ICON is not fine.

[Requiem]

Those easterlies would be brutal next week as that low swings to our south 

[westcoastexpat]

Looking fairly likely that we return to seasonal after a few days but honestly I'd say that a few days of temperatures remaining below freezing before a return to seasonal is still a pretty big win for a strong Nino 

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, van city said:

He’s being a bit dramatic 

[iFred]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

He’s being a bit dramatic 

He's trying to cover his ass if the Puget Sound doesn't freeze over.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, van city said:

WTF does climate fueled mean?

[Snownerd3000]

My wife texted me that Costco in Woodinville is a madhouse. Told her word on snow is out. 

 

[SeanNyberg]

ICON 12z has Portland in the mid to upper 40s on Saturday. LOL

The trend isn't great folks. Nearly +20 degree surface temps from the last run.

Torched.

[iFred]

2 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

Looking fairly likely that we return to seasonal after a few days but honestly I'd say that a few days of temperatures remaining below freezing before a return to seasonal is still a pretty big win for a strong Nino 

Was listening to a bit on City News concerning shelter space for the unhoused around E Hastings. I wouldn't call it a win.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

WTF does climate fueled mean?

Not sure, but you can bet that Rich Marriot has something to do with it!