CentralNebWeather Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 3KM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 I’m changing my tune and riding with the 4-8” of the NWS’s prediction. They got my area right last time. And I’m trusting them again. gimme another foot 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 NAM IS DRUNKEN 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, jcwxguy said: Ride or die 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11 Author Report Share Posted January 11 I've always liked CAA on southwesterly winds 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickH4NU Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Des Moines is in a Snow Squall Warning at the moment and there are several reports of cloud to ground lightning strikes in Dallas county! 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Ruh roh. Big swing south on 3km NAM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee_CHI Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Models showing rain here again?! Well find your shocked colored crayon and color me with it! Seriously though I actually do think that’s plausible, it’s kinda been the story over the past few years for the Chicago area. I’m just hoping to get a good shoot in, those pictures in Iowa from the last storm looked incredible, hoping for something similar here! Anyways, based on what I’ve gathered, here’s my prediction: Chicago area: 1-3” because rain Des Moines: 19” because always The rest of Iowa: 8” because it’s Iowa Omaha: [ERROR 404] Central NebraskaWx : 12” somehow because our lord and savior loves him 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 The globals have had a good handle on this storm so far. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macminey2 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 23 minutes ago, NickH4NU said: Des Moines is in a Snow Squall Warning at the moment and there are several reports of cloud to ground lightning strikes in Dallas county! Never seen that before on the map! Wow. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 grid was just updated 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11 Author Report Share Posted January 11 Gimme this one 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickH4NU Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 ICON still liking Omaha 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 8 hours ago, Hoosier said: Honestly, 80%+ of the event looks like a wetter snow for Chicago area. It's been a while since there has been a large wet snow event of this potential magnitude in Chicago proper. Maybe have to go back to the Nov 2015 storm? But even that one screwed the downtown area big time with hardly any snow. 2016 missed ORD southeast iirc. Nailed yby tho, right? Not sure what to think on this one. Not sold on the winds until like last night, most of the snow has already fallen. We'll see tho. Super busy with new work and not the best time for me to be able to follow. Keep falling way behind on these threads. With a very solid 10" already OTG, anything more with winds would be pretty amazing. Good luck down there! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Ok so NWS and news stations all went way down with totals today for my area. Models tonight going up, sounds like we are getting everything figured out! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11 Author Report Share Posted January 11 6 minutes ago, jaster220 said: 2016 missed ORD southeast iirc. Nailed yby tho, right? Not sure what to think on this one. Not sold on the winds until like last night, most of the snow has already fallen. We'll see tho. Super busy with new work and not the best time for me to be able to follow. Keep falling way behind on these threads. With a very solid 10" already OTG, anything more with winds would be pretty amazing. Good luck down there! Yeah, ORD barely got anything on 2/24/16 while I got around a foot. Good luck to you too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pros3lyte Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Man- DTX saying that the dry slot will move through and pull in some really cold air and winds will start gusting up to 50mph! Forecast discussion at 4p mentioned approaching high wind warning criteria AS the remaining 1-3 inches falls on Saturday. That sounds like blizzard conditions to me…!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 58 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Ruh roh. Big swing south on 3km NAM. Do you have the map? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickH4NU Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 What is this GFS doing 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 With the NAM jumping off board, the HRRRRR remains alone on the further NW track. I do not have enough faith in that model to believe it. Globals win. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATW Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 4 hours ago, Clinton said: The morning of the last storm they showed me getting a dusting - 2 and I got 6. I don't like my odds with them showing accumulations for me lol. I don’t feel great about this one either but it’s possible some areas in central Mo.could get lucky with a few inches. They mentioned this in the NWS Stl AFD. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATW Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 12 hours ago, KTPmidMO said: Yeah I haven't had a good feeling about this storm for central Missouri for a couple days now. Maybe I'll get proved wrong but I don't know. I'm more interested in the Monday system. Most models are putting a WIDE area of snow down on Monday and ratios look to be 20:1 or better. I hope we score at least one decent storm before we lose the cold air. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: I’d sure take this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 The 00z CMC looks like a really nice compromise. I'd be super happy with that result. I will say it's 12z run this AM showed 2 inches falling here today and I thought it was off its rocker as it looked like everything was passing to the south. But then we had a very heavy band develop and drop a quick 2 inches. So I'll give it kudos there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Different perspective, based off their algorithm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StupidFlanders Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Please dont tell me this is going to miss Chicago area again.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Thursday morning's models won't be contaminated by this evening's snow burst. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, Jaycee_CHI said: Omaha: [ERROR 404] Central NebraskaWx : 12” somehow because our lord and savior loves him Jaycee, this literally made me laugh out loud. Snow forecasts in Omaha seem to always get screwed by some type of unforeseen phenomenon (too much dry air, warm air aloft or at the lower levels, sleet/pingers, Oma-dome, etc). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Alright, so Omaha's outlook now sits as... 00z NAM (Kuchera): 12.0" 00z NAM (10:1): 7.4" 00z NAM 3km (Kuchera): 4.7" 00z NAM 3km (10:1): 2.8" 00z RGEM (Kuchera): 11.2" 00z RGEM (10:1): 6.7" 00z ICON (10:1): 6.9" 00z GFS (Kuchera): 6.8" 00z GFS (10:1): 3.4" 00z GEM (Kuchera): 12.5" 00z GEM (10:1): 6.8" ... Post-00z NBM: 4.5" ... Flowers: 5.5" Strange to me, even accounting for any snow crystal degradation due to wind, that forecasts would come in so firmly below the Kuchera average of 9.4", and even the 10:1 ratio average of 5.7". Edit: The above also implies local SLR of 16:1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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