January 11-13 Major Winter Storm/Blizzard

[East Dubzz]

Now this is more of the storm I was hoping to see when I woke up. Really coming down out there. 

[StupidFlanders]

6 minutes ago, East Dubzz said:

Now this is more of the storm I was hoping to see when I woke up. Really coming down out there. 

You guys are getting it good finally. My fam is in Rockford and it's coming down like crazy there they said. 

Also, this cold next week is canceling my quick trip to Galena, ha!

[shakjen]

That dry slot may push all the way past Chicago. Stopped snowing/raining here.

[shakjen]

Juts canceled my Warning, went to an Advisory. Looks like all the totals were lowered for today and tonight.

BUST, AGAIN!

[Bryan1117]

1 hour ago, East Dubzz said:

Okay, looks like it's an actual snowfall now. Starting to come down good. Still plenty of time left in this storm. Let's get it rolling. 

It took a while for things to get going here last night, once the heavier bands moved in it started stacking up, and subsequently, blowing away quickly. 

[East Dubzz]

One of those snowfalls where it's sometimes difficult to tell what is falling snow and what is blowing snow. 

[westMJim]

In looking at the current radar there is a small area of light snow moving into Michigan. All of the current heavier snow is off to the west heading north. There is a large "dry" area to our south than some a large area of rain to the south of that dry area. 

[bud2380]

I honestly can't get a great measurement here.  There was so much snow already on the ground and I didn't clear off the nearly 2" we got Wednesday.  My best guess is between 2.5 and 3.5".  There is a report of 3" just south of me and that was from at least an hour ago, so seems reasonable.  We continue to just get light snow.  Perhaps a moderate band is starting to form, but this thing is going to have to pickup dramatically to get to much more than 6".  

[gosaints]

1 inch here.  Lame so far.  Looks like a serious mesoband to the southeast.  Will see how that progresses towards to noon hour.  Plenty a weenie models this morning but my best guess is somewhere around 6 inches here

[Stacsh]

Totals get lower every run.  The excitement will be a burst of snow later this afternoon and  Then the cold and lake effect will probably be the main show this weekend.  

[MKEstorm]

Measured 4 inches as of 11:00 a.m.

[Bumblin Bman09]

13 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Totals get lower every run.  The excitement will be a burst of snow later this afternoon and  Then the cold and lake effect will probably be the main show this weekend.  

We only got about 3" up in NE IL.  I was expecting more and hopefully we get another 

[The Snowman]

Absolutely no clue how much we've gotten just west of downtown, lol. Some spots with not even a flake accumulated due to wind, some spots with >2 foot drifts.

[indianajohn]

going on 3 hours with barely anything now. Was up around 4:30  when it started puking snow!! it was a fun drive to the gym.... 

[Hoosier]

The double low feature is really screwing with things around Chicago metro for later.  If you believe some of the latest guidance, the more northwesterly low will hang on longer than originally progged into Chicago metro and cause longer precip type issues.  Looks like LOT has already trended the forecast toward less snow for later across much of the area.

[beaugie]

6 minutes ago, MKEstorm said:

Measured 4 inches as of 11:00 a.m.

4.75 near Whitewater 

[BMT]

is it just me or is this thing progressing eastward slower than what was modeled?  just seems to be crawling along

[indianajohn]

11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The double low feature is really screwing with things around Chicago metro for later.  If you believe some of the latest guidance, the more northwesterly low will hang on longer than originally progged into Chicago metro and cause longer precip type issues.  Looks like LOT has already trended the forecast toward less snow for later across much of the area.

 

yea.. Weather Hopeium is a dangerous drug. What could of should of.....

[East Dubzz]

Just realized they issued a Blizzard Warning here. Surprised they didn't just do that yesterday. 

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, indianajohn said:

yea.. Weather Hopeium is a dangerous drug. What could of should of.....

Just glad we got what we got and now hopefully there isn't too much melting in the coming hours (remains to be seen with this double low trying to draw some warmer temps into our area).

[shakjen]

22 minutes ago, East Dubzz said:

Just realized they issued a Blizzard Warning here. Surprised they didn't just do that yesterday. 

It was issued at the same item LOT took down the warnings for most of their area. Looks like Eastern Iowa is going to strike it again. Models, even this morning, had it way off. They should the big totals over towards Chicago, less in your area. Now it has switched.

[bud2380]

Southeast Iowa got hit hard again. Needed a two county shift north. Snow is coming down harder now and wind is picking up. Measurements will be a nightmare later. 

[MKEstorm]

48 minutes ago, beaugie said:

4.75 near Whitewater 

Ok, yeah I’m about 8 miles west of Mitchell Airport.

[Iowawx]

Snow is finally picking up here. We may not get the higher end of the forecasted totals, but we should be able to get to at least 6" or 7". Perhaps 8" if it really picks up.

[StupidFlanders]

Yeah, thing totally switched. Just rain here the past few hours near Chicago. Hopefully it picks up more tonight.

[Hawkeye]

I am at about 2.6" now, a pretty underwhelming first half of the storm.  My two small snow boards only have 1" on them, so the wind is clearly blowing the snow off the boards.  My main board, with the backstop built up around the south side, has 2.6".  The snow has been a bit light so far, but it's getting heavier.

[Tom]

The double barrel low was horribly modeled...I don't recall every seeing the Euro showing it tracking over Chicago.  What a gut punch!  It always had a consolidated low in N IN into S MI...

[bud2380]

Difficult measure today. I took several measurements and best guess is 3.5-4”. Probably closer to 3.5. Snow continued to fall lightly. 5-6” is probably where we will finish. Disappointing given what models were showing. But actually a decent storm by Iowa standards. 

[WBadgersW]

I currently have 9.0" from this storm. Thinking I may be have a shot at 15/16" with 6/7 hours of the good stuff to go.

[GDR]

With over 20 inches on the ground this so is going to drift like crazy!!

[The Snowman]

Radar returns re-intensifying as they rotate down through eastern Nebraska; snowing essentially sideways at this point, really pretty to watch

[East Dubzz]

The amount of snow I have on my deck is hilarious..

 

[East Dubzz]

I do like how the radar looks; and I keep forgetting this storm is supposed to keep going for quite a while still. Just a wild week.

[Hawkeye]

46 minutes ago, Tom said:

The double barrel low was horribly modeled...I don't recall every seeing the Euro showing it tracking over Chicago.  What a gut punch!  It always had a consolidated low in N IN into S MI...

The 500 mb energy that is producing this system is pretty messy.  The models have struggled with the details.  For the last few days it looked like southwest through all of northern Iowa would get hit hard.  However, it is southern Iowa that got hit hard while northern Iowa appears to be busting badly.

[Hawkeye]

13" in Muscatine.  Davenport should exclipse 12" shortly.

[indianajohn]

Is it just me or with all these supposed "advancements" and "improvements in the models over the last few they really have been struggling with winter storms? For tthe most part they are great for  severe weather in the spring and summer months but boy do they struggle in the winter.

[Iowawx]

3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

13" in Muscatine.  Davenport should exclipse 12" shortly.

How much longer should the accumulating snow last in CR? Should the snowfall rate pick up as the day goes on?

[mlgamer]

33 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

Radar returns re-intensifying as they rotate down through eastern Nebraska; snowing essentially sideways at this point, really pretty to watch

Pockets of brief moderate to heavy snow have even rotated down to me in northeast KS. Makes a nice snowy scene with a fresh dusting to an inch on top of our previous snow.

[westMJim]

Well it is snowing here. But in looking at the current radar I wonder how long it will be before we can call this winter storm "bust?" I am starting to think that west Michigan could get more lake effect snow than system snow out of this.

[Pros3lyte]

Radar showing precip overhead but nothing is happening here on the ground yet - Thumb of Michigan. DTX expecting the rain line to move really far north and cut down on totals. Overall feels like this might end up just being a nuisance event for SEMI. 

On a side note- was exploring winter snowfall totals for this portion of the state going back to 04/05. Looks like my area has averaged somewhere in the ballpark of 30 inches per season since then, which is really low compared to most of the rest of the state. Our lowest winter landed at 17.5 inches in my county in 06/07. If things keep trending the way they have this winter, we'll be breaking records for sure...just not the way I'd hoped!