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January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

Meatyorologist
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Posted by SeanNyberg,

my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kids. I'm going to step back for the day too. It's just too much uninformed nonsense. I am excited for a lot of you guys, because it seems like this is your first time tracking a PNW winter storm. I remember my first time.
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Posted by GHweatherChris,

@iFred @TT-SEA pin this at the top...
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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

NWS forecast a 1500 snow level Saturday?  How?

Literally not possible unless maybe it's entirely based on the 06Z GFS from last night.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SeanNyberg
SeanNyberg

my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kid

Meatyorologist
Meatyorologist

Cheers forum members!

iFred
iFred

@Meatyorologist @SouthHillFrosty @Cold Snap @RentonHill all here

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TacomaWx Grand Master

TacomaWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

NWS forecast a 1500 snow level Saturday?  How?

It at the very least is going to be cold enough to snow later this week into this weekend. It’s pretty obvious at this point…details are yet to be settled but some forecasters completely ignoring it and not even having much mention is dumb. 

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Literally not possible unless maybe it's entirely based on the 06Z GFS from last night.   😀

Maybe they anticipate the airmass will get hung up at the border.

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Meatyorologist Grand Master

Meatyorologist

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Just now, Phil said:

Maybe they anticipate the airmass will get hung up at the border.

This is what I think our real failmode is now

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Perturbed Member Grand Master

Perturbed Member

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

NWS forecast a 1500 snow level Saturday?  How?

PDX NWS calls for a 1400 ft snow level Friday AM and 1700 ft by Friday night, rising to 2100 ft by Saturday. 😂

I have no problem with this, the last time PDX NWS completely ignored the models and downplayed everything we ended up with 6-12 inches of snow pretty widespread here in Feb 2023. 

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LowerGarfield Grand Master

LowerGarfield

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Dropped down to 26F. Bit colder than expected tonight.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Doinko Grand Master

Doinko

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Just now, Perturbed Member said:

PDX NWS calls for a 1400 ft snow level Friday AM and 1700 ft by Friday night, rising to 2100 ft by Saturday. 😂

I have no problem with this, the last time PDX NWS completely ignored the models and downplayed everything we ended up with 6-12 inches of snow pretty widespread here in Feb 2023. 

Reading through their AFD's, they seem to mention probabilities in almost everything, instead of talking about the setup in general. It really wasn't helpful with that storm either. 

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Meatyorologist Grand Master

Meatyorologist

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ICON is more in line with EPS. Seems more and more like we have our solution.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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SimplySmoothWX Collaborator

SimplySmoothWX

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2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Okay I've said it about 57 times already and been wrong, but this time HAS to be the one where the GFS finally caves fully.

The GFS technically has been caving, but more slowly than I think most of us anticipated

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iFred Mentor

iFred

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2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Okay I've said it about 57 times already and been wrong, but this time HAS to be the one where the GFS finally caves fully.

You've got until the 18z.

That is when everything caves back to that warm GFS ensemble that never brought anything below freezing.

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

ICON is more in line with EPS. Seems more and more like we have our solution.

Yeah it’s really narrowing down now. GFS and Euro aren’t even that far apart now (w/rt TPV track).

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Perturbed Member Grand Master

Perturbed Member

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Just now, Doinko said:

Reading through their AFD's, they seem to mention probabilities in almost everything, instead of talking about the setup in general. It really wasn't helpful with that storm either. 

Yeah, I understand that they want to show that there is significant uncertainty and want to express the forecast as a probability distribution, but their job is ultimately to interpret the data and distill it into clear and easy to understand recommendations and predictions. The way they are writing these AFDs and forecasts, it essentially boils down to "anything and everything is technically possible". It just isn't that useful to write that same message over and over. 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

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The ICON has that same low coming into play for the weekend as we have seen on other models.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Rubus Leucodermis Grand Master

Rubus Leucodermis

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2 minutes ago, iFred said:

image.png

JFC. Maybe don't say anything about the forums.

Of course I believe in HAARP. HAARP exists and is real. It’s an ionospheric research facility in Alaska.

I don't, however, believe that HAARP is being used for nefarious purposes.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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I’m not sure this GFS run will change much. Probably will be more pronounced with the TPV and leave it hanging in W-Canada a little longer?

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SpaceRace22 Mentor

SpaceRace22

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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Of course I believe in HAARP. HAARP exists and is real. It’s an ionospheric research facility in Alaska.

I don't, however, believe that HAARP is being used for nefarious purposes.

You just blew my mind that HAARP is actually a real thing, lol. I guess it makes sense though. Conspiracy nuts tend to latch onto a kernel of truth that they then wildly misunderstand and blow completely out of proportion.

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Frontal Snowsquall Grand Master

Frontal Snowsquall

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2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

God I wish this thing would just stick its a** out to the SW another couple hundred miles. Still a great ICON run though!

icon-all-namer-z500_anom-5028400.png

Not out of the realm of possibility it could in future runs. Maybe a little more windshield wiper effect the other way. Still 4 days out.

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ajreich Collaborator

ajreich

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6 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Yeah, I understand that they want to show that there is significant uncertainty and want to express the forecast as a probability distribution, but their job is ultimately to interpret the data and distill it into clear and easy to understand recommendations and predictions. The way they are writing these AFDs and forecasts, it essentially boils down to "anything and everything is technically possible". It just isn't that useful to write that same message over and over. 

In all fairness, I think they’re probably occupied primarily right now with the blizzard happening in 48 hours  😊

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Location 850’ NW Hills in Portland

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

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The ICON totally overpowers the weekend system and shoves it way south.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

This GFS run is basically a clone of the 18z Euro/EPS thru hr48. At long last they’ve reached a consensus. Almost.

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