January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Cold Snap]

5 minutes ago, Gummy said:

That was a juicy system that came in with perfect placement.  The type of snowstorm you get only a handful of times in a lifetime in Seattle. Total was just over 8" in Seattle I think?

Total was 11.2” in Seattle. 8.9” of that was in one day which is tied for the 6th snowiest day at SEA.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I can't remember what happened here. Pics are on another phone somewhere 

You must have gotten it good with how strong the offshore flow was.  I couldn't believe how my area hung onto the cold the next day and had dry snow falling while most places got all drippy.  Made up for way less snow on the night most places got a lot.

[snow_wizard]

BTW...no ice maps on the EPS.

[RaleighHillsRunner]

1 hour ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

 

He must be leaning heavily towards what the EURO is showing since it has 24/19 on Saturday with snow/ice. It’s a smart move unless it shows otherwise.

Moisture is not going to be an issue this time around. So confident is high there. He thinks this could also be a big event. I’d take any of the events he mentioned. From his blog post:

“Cold arctic air arrives late Friday out of the Gorge and clashes with a lot of milder Pacific precipitation for an ice and/or snow storm in metro area and Gorge late Friday through Saturday. This MAY be a big event like February 2023, Christmas Eve 2022, February 2021, January 2017, January 2004...etc... It’s too early to know if cold air makes it all the way to Salem/Eugene.”

Mark is the GOAT for PDX snowstorms - sure he’s had his misses and years when models simply whiffed completely, but I pretty much take his analysis in a dynamic/uncertain scenario as gospel at this point. Think he’s also more a hedger these days but we’ll see how it plays out.

[snow_wizard]

Now we're talking!

[snow_wizard]

For those who didn't see the ICON map I posted earlier.  This is getting interesting now!

[RaleighHillsRunner]

23 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Washington's defense looks completely inept

Tbf they’ve escaped a lot of close games, long way to go still

[BLI snowman]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That one was very interesting.  My area got kind of shafted on the main event, because of too much east wind.  The next day the places that got way more snow warmed up and got super soggy while an easterly trickle kept it freezing here with a couple of more inches.  Pulled off an extra freezing max that day.

Pulled off a 15" total here. Tied with January 1998 for my biggest event in the lowlands.

[LowerGarfield]

Watching the snow fall with the light turned off and a nice cinnamon raisin bagel is the best. Down to 33F and accumulating but probably only 1-3 hours until the windstorm and warm nose takes it away. This isn't a complaining post I promise. It's actually pretty cool.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Now we're talking!

Wow... big change from 12Z run for Saturday  and maybe Sunday since that is only through 10 a.m. there.    I think that is related to snow falling rather than being suppressed to the south.  

[LowerGarfield]

I'll be happy if I can get enough to measure before it melts beyond the trace this morning that was already gone.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

18z EPS mean is two degrees colder for surface temps than the 12z at day 6.  More snow for Seattle with the weekend system.  Good trends,

 

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Now we're talking!

BOOM! There we go!!! If you guys up there stay frozen through the weekend that means systems don’t go too far north. PDX should stay frozen as well.

[Requiem]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Now we're talking!

How about PDX temps? I assume about the same 

[Hyperbolic Trendz]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well... not nervous any more.   This is a disaster.  

Quick somebody start posting replays of Wolverine highlights and  still images of Husky mistakes and unfavorable comeback data and scenarios. 

But throw in a random Pellex highlight from midseason and insincerely suggest that “there’s still lots of game left.”

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Pulled off a 15" total here. Tied with January 1998 for my biggest event in the lowlands.

We've had some great events 2017 to present.  Hopefully we will finally see Jan contribute something.

[SouthHillFrosty]

UW can’t compete in the Big Ten. 7-5 next year. 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... big change from 12Z run for Saturday  and maybe Sunday since that is only through 10 a.m. there.    I think that is related to snow falling rather than being suppressed to the south.  

The cold did make it a bit further south on this run.  Snow cover could account for some of it too.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Requiem said:

How about PDX temps? I assume about the same 

[KingstonWX]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

UW can’t compete in the Big Ten. 7-5 next year. 

It's going to take a while. 

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

 

BOOM! There we go!!! If you guys up there stay frozen through the weekend that means systems don’t go too far north. PDX should stay frozen as well.

Right now I would say PDX is looking somewhat safe.

[Perturbed Member]

18z EPS Friday night

[LowerGarfield]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

UW can’t compete in the Big Ten. 7-5 next year. 

The money and increase of prestige with recruits will improve their team. Also they made it to the national championship game. They are already good.

[snow_wizard]

The end of the EPS (both mean and control) shows more promise for another cold shot early in week two than the 12z.  We just might pull something good out yet.

[RaleighHillsRunner]

2 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

It's going to take a while. 

Nah, I think the only team that will struggle to any real degree is UCLA. Pac 12 about to represent, regardless of the outcome tonight.

[Slushy Inch]

21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Now we're talking!

Good chance of low teens!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, RaleighHillsRunner said:

Nah, I think the only team that will struggle to any real degree is UCLA. Pac 12 about to represent, regardless of the outcome tonight.

Wrong thread I think.

[Ken in Wood Village]

The low that's coming in Tuesday night and Wednesday morning is moving a little more South. You can see from the 00Z HRRR. Not a lot of snow accumulation in the Portland area but we have about 24 hours to see if it moves South more. 🌨

[RaleighHillsRunner]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Wrong thread I think.

Thought we had a side convo going, my bad. 
 

I just want a PDX snowstorm  

[snow_wizard]

This is the second cold shot the Graph Cast showed today.  This will be a huge deal if we already have snow on the ground, and for giving us a shot at solidly cold monthly average temp.  This is at day 7.

[Olive1010]

PQR PDX forecast discussion 457 PM for tomorrow night-wed morning

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Good chance of low teens!

If we get good snow cover and a clear night we could do quite well.  To be honest I'm way more excited than I was 24 hours ago.

[Olive1010]

Meteogramsss

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If we get good snow cover and a clear night we could do quite well.  To be honest I'm way more excited than I was 24 hours ago.

There is everyone reason to be excited. We have had lightning, and soon there will be a windstorm, cold and snow. Plus gobs of mountain snow.

[Requiem]

Best NAM run yet for PDX metro in regards to the Wednesday low 

[Snowlova]

Someone write a book about the roller coaster this has been at this point XD. 
 

“The Chronicles of Pacific Northwest Snow” or something. 

[FroYoBro]

3 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Best NAM run yet for PDX metro in regards to the Wednesday low 

Just about to post this. Perfect low location for the greatest town on earth. 
 

TIGARD!!!

[snow_wizard]

NWS still says rain or snow Thursday night with lows of 17 to 23 for my zone.   Probably safe to take the rain out!

[lowlandsnow]

15 members still have Seattle getting to 12 or below the coldest temp since 1990

[LowerGarfield]

Have just under .40. still snowing but lighter and I'd rather miss a tenth or so of an inch and be conservative rather than missing due to my child needing something, the cats being crazy, or a phone call when it changes. I'll check again before bed. Would be nice to get to .5 before I take the board away.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

NWS still says rain or snow Thursday night with lows of 17 to 23 for my zone.   Probably safe to take the rain out!

Same for my place. They have rain in there.