January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Dude tell me about it. So many no calls. The one on the deep ball to Odunze was killer. Give us that one, they scored on an obvious hold. 

Naw this is a bad take. UW gave up 34 points. Defense and offense looked bad. No calls happened on both sides. UW was outclassed the whole game. 

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Ouch ice storm. Strong low pressure 

Not very much, and I don't buy it.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Pressure keeps falling  

[Requiem]

I don't think it's gutsy to say that at this venture someone will either get 12+ inches of snow in the I-5 corridor or over an inch of ice 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Entirely dependent on small low shifts-- we obviously get precip either way, the question becomes how much we "waste" on ZR 

When was the last time we saw a ZR to snow situation? I only remember seeing the opposite

[awright-31]

What I didn't notice is that 10:00 pm Friday night the snow turns over to ZR and we get a half-inch of ice overnight Friday night on top of a foot of snow.

That has January 2012 vibes. The same weekend even I think. Did major damage here.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

The storm goes slightly farther north of the 12z. Still a major storm for PDX but looks like a mixed snow/ice/sleet storm.

Would not be our typical overrunning running event if this were to verify. Looks like an ice to snow event as the low pulls in colder air behind it. If it just tracks a little further south we could get more snow.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Hopefully with a bunch of snow on the ground. 

That was included in my nice run statement.  A lot is shown.

[Deweydog]

Just now, Doinko said:

When was the last time we saw a ZR to snow situation? I only remember seeing the opposite

2008

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

I don't think it's gutsy to say that at this venture someone will either get 12+ inches of snow in the I-5 corridor or over an inch of ice 

Good bets at this point.  The snow and ice will be in different places of course.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Deweydog said:

2008

2012 here as well.  Snow, ice, snow

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Doinko said:

When was the last time we saw a ZR to snow situation? I only remember seeing the opposite

December 2008 is a very prolific example, at least in the Portland area. More recently February 2021 tried to changeover to ice and sleet for awhile here the first night of the storm, before changing back to snow as the upper levels cooled. I realize areas to the immediate west and south weren’t so lucky though.

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Naw this is a bad take. UW gave up 34 points. Defense and offense looked bad. No calls happened on both sides. UW was outclassed the whole game. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Naw this is a bad take. UW gave up 34 points. Defense and offense looked bad. No calls happened on both sides. UW was outclassed the whole game. 

More like overmatched.    

[lowlandsnow]

Even the gfs extended the cold

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, awright-31 said:

What I didn't notice is that 10:00 pm Friday night the snow turns over to ZR and we get a half-inch of ice overnight Friday night on top of a foot of snow.

That has January 2012 vibes. The same weekend even I think. Did major damage here.

I’d be surprised if it changed to rain at all mid event. Cold air is gonna be tough to get rid of. 

[snow_wizard]

Only hits 32 on Sunday.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

December 2008 is a very prolific example, at least in the Portland area. More recently February 2021 tried to changeover to ice and sleet for awhile here the first night of the storm, before changing back to snow as the upper levels cooled. I realize areas to the immediate west and south weren’t so lucky though.

Oh yeah, I remember 2021 had a switchover back to snow at the very end. That wasn't bad, 5-6" of snow and some ice/sleet

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, lowlandsnow said:

Even the gfs extended the cold

Excellent!

[Perturbed Member]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Well I think here in the south sound we’re in a pretty good spot. Far enough north to not be on the boundary but far enough south to atleast get clipped most likely. Precip shield should extend further north than modeled pretty typical to happen. 

Yeah I think you guys are in a really good spot. Either a huge snowstorm or if things do stay further south, lighter snow totals but stay colder and for longer. Not the worst outcomes to have on the table. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, lowlandsnow said:

Even the gfs extended the cold

Good. It would be so nice to see some clear and cold weather out of this stretch. Especially with snow on the ground.

[lowlandsnow]

Really good trends tonight

[TacomaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Only hits 32 on Sunday.

Hope this run makes you feel better jimbo. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not very much, and I don't buy it.

It turns back to snow after this.  I doubt the sound would see any zr at all.

[fubario]

14 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

I’d be surprised if it changed to rain at all mid event. Cold air is gonna be tough to get rid of. 

It's also obvious the GFS will eventually move toward the other models with deeper penetration of cold.  Literally every other model is colder.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

It's also obvious the GFS will eventually move toward the other models with deeper penetration of cold.  Literally every other model is colder.

Sure hope so.

[Hyperbolic Trendz]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

2008

I was just going to respond the same, but I was hesitant thinking maybe that was just a S. metro thing.  I think we even switched over and back for a few hours during the big Saturday event on (I believe) the 20th.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

Bingo 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Hope this run makes you feel better jimbo. 

It does.  Looks pretty solid at this point.

[MossMan]

Hopefully Saturday will be a wild one for us! 

[Kolk1604]

00z ICON remains frigid until Tuesday at least. 

 

[Requiem]

I still need the continued support of the (disgraced and in the midst of a major scandal) king to be completely confident 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Bingo 

Wow, huge improvement this evening. Had a good feeling about the runs tonight!

[Front Ranger]

22 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

So far trends have been decent tonight ICON and NAM were a lot better. GEM held. GFS improved slightly.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Hyperbolic Trendz said:

I was just going to respond the same, but I was hesitant thinking maybe that was just a S. metro thing.  I think we even switched over and back for a few hours during the big Saturday event on (I believe) the 20th.  

I think you’re right about the date. I was trying to remember myself. I think it was near the tail end of the first big storm of the sequence that the mid levels briefly warmed enough for some zr.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Bingo 

I'm kind of liking these last few GFS runs.  Ensembles have been hinting at a cold extension as well.

 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Hopefully Saturday will be a wild one for us! 

I actually worry about things ending up too suppressed more than too far north.

[Snowlova]

This is that homestretch bounce back (I hope) after the rug pull

[SouthHillFrosty]

Yo, this weather forum meet up is happening on Thursday right? Got a babysitter and cancelled some meetings. Just wanted to make sure @iFred @Meatyorologist @RentonHill