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If I remember, the NAM 12k did great with the Jan 17 storm in PDX. The only model to accurately pick up the snow bands caused by the gorge outflow. A not totally dissimilar situation, depending on where the front stalls out. 

Location 850’ NW Hills in Portland

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

@Chewbacca Defensethe ECMWF shows some c-zone type snow in Bellingham already before dawn tomorrow.   Might be more dicey for your son that I thought.   Bellingham is going to score early (and probably best) with this front.   But its not actually the SW moving arctic front on Thursday morning up there... it a localized area of convergence.   Precip is moving to the NE during this little event.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_12hr-4985200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_3hr_inch-4967200.png

It’s the Chuckanut Mountains. They often catch a bit of snow. Tend to make their own weather at times.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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12Z NAM... as mentioned its a significant shift south and abandoned the idea of the second low forming om Saturday morning on the 00Z run that Michael Synder talked about last night.  

nam-218-all-nw-precip_3hr_inch-1704888000-1705071600-1705190400-10.gif

nam-218-all-nw-snow_24hr-5190400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TacomaWx said:

Yeah it’s better than December for sure even if we see little or no snow up here. 

Cold keeps us in the ballgame. Cold also just feels like real winter. You guys are going to have a bitterly cold weekend with bright sunshine, even if there isn't snow all the way to the Sound the mountains will be beautiful. 

  • Like 9

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, ajreich said:

Hope you have a speedy recovery and get feet of snow 😊

Thanks!  And really happy for the mountain snow and colder January than we've had for quite awhile even if we can't get lowland snow! 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like the GFS caved some more. 

Rather amusing that a day or two ago Seattle weenies were rooting for the GFS to stick to more northerly solutions and now PDX weenies are.

Given his frequent complaints, it would be hilarious if the weekend system turned out to be a Tiger special.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Cold keeps us in the ballgame. Cold also just feels like real winter. You guys are going to have a bitterly cold weekend with bright sunshine, even if there isn't snow all the way to the Sound the mountains will be beautiful. 

Ya, only can hope to see a reload. 

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Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Rather amusing that a day or two ago Seattle weenies were rooting for the GFS to stick to more northerly solutions and now PDX weenies are.

Given his frequent complaints, it would be hilarious if the weekend system turned out to be a Tiger special.

And yet Spokane NWS updated their forecast for the weekend with pretty much the same as yesterday. Dont know why they are so focused on their own model at the expense of being wrong.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Rather amusing that a day or two ago Seattle weenies were rooting for the GFS to stick to more northerly solutions and now PDX weenies are.

Given his frequent complaints, it would be hilarious if the weekend system turned out to be a Tiger special.

It would be. So far it looks like a big L for the "it always trends north," brigade. 

  • Like 5

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Snowpack in the Oregon Cascades is now 70-75% of normal, similar in the Washington Cascades, except 59% in the North Cascades. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

@Chewbacca Defensethe ECMWF shows some c-zone type snow in Bellingham already before dawn tomorrow.   Might be more dicey for your son that I thought.   Bellingham is going to score early (and probably best) with this front.   But its not actually the SW moving arctic front on Thursday morning up there... it a localized area of convergence.   Precip is moving to the NE during this little event.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_12hr-4985200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_3hr_inch-4967200.png

Thanks for the update!  After relentless hounding from me, last night he figured out a plan where he is going down and staying with a friend in the Northgate area, then will get himself to the airport from there.  That said, it's always nice to contingency plan for a situation like this and have it not be a waste of time/resources. 

All it takes is a few inches of snow and a stupid truck driver hauling a$$ through the canyon without chains to shut down the freeway.  Happens every time, especially at the start of a snowfall event.

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Snowpack in the Oregon Cascades is now 70-75% of normal, similar in the Washington Cascades, except 59% in the North Cascades. 

Wow! That’s 3x what it was last week. Amazing storm. 

Location 850’ NW Hills in Portland

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NWS still going for a high of 35 at SLE on Saturday and Sunday. They cool it down to 32 for Monday. 

We have to start thinking about what kind of cold pool may get established. If we don't have have an overrunning event that mixes things out it is likely the low level cold could end up being much more impressive than we now realize. 

Also, what do y'all think are realistic high temps for places like Salem, PDX, and Seattle over the weekend. I am making assumptions the model output is overdone, but is it? 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Another day with the Olympic rain shadow in place for the Seattle area while there is lots of precip moving through SW WA and NW OR.    The ECMWF shows very little precip in the Seattle area today and tonight... and the shadow extends all the way out here due to strong NW flow aloft.  

rad1-10.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_12hr_inch-4924000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Looks like the willamette valley didn't get any snow last night.. not surprising.

 

16" here now, 8" fell last night.

mylivecamerafeed.jpg

Wow, my co-worker lives and works remotely in Sunriver, I'll have to hit him up to see if he's installed the weather station I got him at our holiday gift exchange. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

NWS still going for a high of 35 at SLE on Saturday and Sunday. They cool it down to 32 for Monday. 

We have to start thinking about what kind of cold pool may get established. If we don't have have an overrunning event that mixes things out it is likely the low level cold could end up being much more impressive than we now realize. 

Also, what do y'all think are realistic high temps for places like Salem, PDX, and Seattle over the weekend. I am making assumptions the model output is overdone, but is it?

I remember the December 2009 blast. That one also happened during a Niño winter and was completely dry. Lack of snow cover made for stronger daytime heating. Highs were in the low-mid 30’s F despite minima in the 10–15 range.

That blast moderated into a prolonged low-level inversion, which ended in a surprise overrunning event for Portland.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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Just now, umadbro said:

Is Clark county considered the willamette valley? I typically say no myself just because I hate Oregon that much, but I don’t know it’s it’s technically the willamette valley.

Given the Willamette River flows into the Columbia south of you, I would say NO. 

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Another day with the Olympic rain shadow in place for the Seattle area while there is lots of precip moving through SW WA and NW OR.    The ECMWF shows very little precip in the Seattle area today and tonight... and the shadow extends all the way out here due to strong NW flow aloft.  

rad1-10.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_12hr_inch-4924000.png

Euro did not handle pscz well. Gfs had strength correct. And euro doesn’t face it droppping south. Just dissipating 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Given the Willamette River flows into the Columbia south of you, I would say NO. 

I think the Willamette Valley stops at the Columbia.

But the Valley, the Puget lowlands, and the Strait of Georgia are all part of the same underlying geologic structure, the Puget Trough.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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I am sure a surprise to nobody now... but the 12Z is coming in way south and trended south of its last couple runs.

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_21.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

12z GRAF just came in. Shows snow starting at PDX noon. 5.1” of snow through Saturday 2am with very cold temperatures and raging east winds. Snow map through Sat 4am shows the snow extending north to Chehalis.

IMG_2717.jpeg.81174425a87cc105156f1c9b47ac1c63.jpeg

IMG_2718.thumb.jpeg.5b6b818f1e79a0f19c06b3ea16284590.jpeg

Ice accumulations light through midnight.

IMG_3895.png

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2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Euro did not handle pscz well.

IMG_9646.MOV

Looks about right to me.   It shows heavier precip north of the Snohomish/King County line.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I remember the December 2009 blast. That one also happened during a Niño winter and was completely dry. Lack of snow cover made for stronger daytime heating. Highs were in the low-mid 30’s F despite minima in the 10–15 range.

That blast moderated into a prolonged low-level inversion, which ended in a surprise overrunning event for Portland.

I feel like this one has more low level CAA at onset, though perhaps less upper level support. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks about right to me.   It shows heavier precip north of the Snohomish/King County line.

Looks to weak to me. And never shows it dropping south. So we’ll see. Gfs has it give me some snow.

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@Cascadia_Wx any thoughts on highs at PDX over the weekend? 

Assuming there is no major winter storm, Monday might be a good day to head out to the gorge and check out frozen waterfalls. 

  • Like 3

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Timmy said:

Devastating trendz for pdx

Frozen whitecaps on the Columbia though. You will be able to skate across the river to Longview. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

@Cascadia_Wx any thoughts on highs at PDX over the weekend? 

Assuming there is no major winter storm, Monday might be a good day to head out to the gorge and check out frozen waterfalls. 

I did that in 2009! It’s well worth doing when the opportunity arises. Usually a blast comes with snow or ice in the Gorge and closed roads.

Horseshoe Falls freezes best. At least that is my subjective judgement. They all are interesting to see. The upper bridge at Multnomah Falls usually gets closed due to falling ice hazard (which is real, several big ice bombs let loose during the 10 to 20 minutes I was at the Falls in 2009).

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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