January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Weiner Warrior]

Well.. it was fun. I'm sort of glad it's over and I can go back to my normal life. 

[TacomaWx]

Very close to some clippage here. Wouldn’t take much. 

[TT-SEA]

[Doinko]

Amazing snowstorm, sometimes I'm forgetting this is 2-3 days out. Foot of snow with temps in the low teens

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Weatherbell subscription cancelled 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

The Tanna Tuva model (which takes its data from the Ulaanbaatar weather observatory) just released new experimental data and there are big changes. Huge north trends, huge south trends. Definitely warner, but also way more frigid. 

It rained all night, the day I left

The weather it was dry

The sun so hot, I froze to death

Suzanna don’t you cry

[Snownerd3000]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

GFS looks slightly warmer/colder and north/south.

More at 11.

Sounds like the news 

[Mid Valley Duck]

Congrats PDX friends!

[Front Ranger]

GEM looks a little juicier with Arctic front.

[MikeInEverett]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Totally agree.   All the models are in general agreement and yet all the models could still change again.   And probably will.  

Feel like models will definitely fluctuate a bit more as we wait for the arctic front to push south. After we see how aggressive the arctic air really is things will solidify more.

[Ken in Wood Village]

This would be a major storm for the Portland area. The winds are going to be really really strong. Probably blizzard conditions 🌨

[TacomaWx]

Well atleast here the models seem to be more favorable the last few runs for the Arctic front. Shows up on the gfs and gem now. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Does the second low on the GFS ever come? I didn’t see but I could have easily missed it. 

[RayRay]

Just hire HAARP so we can direct the moisture to Seattle and get a foot of snow. Just be aware that it probably will not come cheap…

[GobBluth]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Amazing snowstorm, sometimes I'm forgetting this is 2-3 days out. Foot of snow with temps in the low teens

 

Powder snow in Portland is a rare thing.

[Perturbed Member]

GFS is much wetter over PDX, going for an extinction level event. 

[Front Ranger]

Canadian is also a little faster with the cold.

[Slushy Inch]

This has probably already been mentioned. But I and others around the PS could get an inch of snow tomorrow. Worst case .5 or less best case 2 inches.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

GEM looks a little juicier with Arctic front.

Yeah, was just looking at that, definitely feeling more confident over the last few runs about snow tomorrow. 

[MikeInEverett]

I will be so jealous but also so happy for y’all down south if that run verifies!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS now keeps precip south of Seattle... first run that has done that.   Compromise in progress.

If this is where it ends up or maybe a bit north I like our chances for a few inches south of Seattle to tacoma.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Winterdog said:

Nope.  A little south.

Yes... been covered.   And early guesses are usually wrong.  

[lowlandsnow]

When was the last time Portland got a foot of snow in the teens?

[TacomaWx]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If this is where it ends up or maybe a bit north I like our chances for a few inches south of Seattle to tacoma.  

I think atleast south of Seattle we’ve got some decent chances tomorrow and this weekend. We’re really close here and it wouldn’t take much for us to score. 

[TT-SEA]

I this a January 2017 set up for Portland?  

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

This would be a major storm for the Portland area. The winds are going to be really really strong. Probably blizzard conditions 🌨

In line with what the GRAF showed. Good stuff!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

I think atleast south of Seattle we’ve got some decent chances tomorrow and this weekend. We’re really close here and it wouldn’t take much for us to score. 

I would not be shocked to see all the models make the same move in one direction or another from this point forward.   So its definitely not settled yet and maybe won't be until the event starts.

[Tanis Leach]

So computer tech just called me, my computer is Kapoot. I am now in the market for a new computer. What specs would you all recommend considering the following factors:

Should be able to take on grad school if I go that route. 

If I go straight into a meteorology job (we'll let's hope the job market gets better), then it should take on that. 

 

I know Oklahoma reccomends an I7, 16 GB of RAM, and 500 GB SSD. Virginia Tech has the last 2 reccomended but just says an I or ryzen series processor. 

[North_County]

17 minutes ago, van city said:

Be careful what you wish for. Enjoy the snow it won't last long. On the other hand SWBC.

 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I this a January 2017 set up for Portland?  

In January 2017, most of our snow fell around 28-32 degrees. I think our last snow in the teens was Feb 2014

[Cascadia_Wx]

As lovely as the 00z GFS was for Portland, there is a certain uneasiness to being in the bullseye 60 hours out. Especially with how the models have been in flux.

Edited January 11 by Cascadia_Wx

[TT-SEA]

GEM just very close to its last two runs.    Pretty consistent now.

[Ken in Wood Village]

I forgot to mention this in my last post. The models show a general location of what MAY happen. The location will differ from actual landfall for the low pressure system. The models normally under do the moisture and where it actual goes. Just because Portland gets hit hard, doesn't mean people up North won't get anything. 

Hope is not all lost. 🌨

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I would not be shocked to see all the models make the same move in one direction or another from this point forward.   So it’s definitely not settled yet and maybe won't be until the event starts.

I think the swath of precipitation on the north side could potentially be underdone and less suppressed. We would be fighting some dry air…but it’s possible we could be surprised this far north. 

[Sandy rocks]

I know you guys up north would probably like to believe that Oregon doesn't exist but we do. In fact, we have a coastline that happens to be 350 miles long. So a storm isn't automatically and magically jump from Redding to Ocean Shores. I do wish you the best. It's going to be what it is, no matter how much we wish cast. 

[lowlandsnow]

GEM looks a little further south

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

This has probably already been mentioned. But I and others around the PS could get an inch of snow tomorrow. Worst case .5 or less best case 2 inches.

Almost 3”!!!!!!!!!!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

In January 2017, most of our snow fell around 28-32 degrees. I think our last snow in the teens was Feb 2014

That's right... I remember from the pics that the trees were flocked.   Definitely not a roaring cold east wind.  

[westcoastexpat]

I think Seattle is going to get hit pretty hard. Trends are clearly north on all the models. There will be some surprises this weekend. And probably some bonus snow along the Arctic front before the main event.