January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[TT-SEA]

Also crazy... the latest HRRR run has the precip mostly done by noon or 1 tomorrow.   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

And just like that sleet mixing with rain!! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

30 at EUG. It's coming. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Already 3 below nws forecast from this afternoon. 

The hourly point and click? Those are always oversmoothed, missing the quick drops due to wetbulbing/decoupling and subsequent rises from BL mixing/etc.

[Phishy Wx]

29 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

JAYA Said the southern low looked stronger and more spun up than modeled. 

and could maybe become the parent low

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, North_County said:

Side note, but does anyone else call a freezing rain event a "silver thaw"? Or is that just a local colloquialism? Growing up, that's what I always heard it referred to as. But I don't think I've ever heard that phrase from anyone outside of Whatcom County.

Never heard that term in my life.

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Totally confusing for sure! 

That low is coming inland before midnight down there.  

Thats south! Hard to imagine center getting to Olympic Penninsula 

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Never heard that term in my life.

Lies, that term has been around forever, Stampede Pass has experience it many times, you experienced several up there.

Edited January 17 by GHweatherChris

[Hawksfan2008]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Also crazy... the latest HRRR run has the precip mostly done by noon or 1 tomorrow.   

I get so frustrated with that model. Can’t think of a situation where it does its job. Pretty sad given this scenario is exactly what it should be good for. 

[Phishy Wx]

29 minutes ago, luvssnow_spokane said:

GREAT READ: With Puget Sound Energy’s (PSE) recent debacle, Cliff Mass, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington, takes climate zealots to task in a blog post titled: The Cold Truth About Renewable Energy in the Pacific Northwest.

https://x.com/wagop/status/1747383497302622434?s=46&t=dIP_tfaU13ExwPgv5KMjSw

get out here with that garbage, captain horsepaste

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Thats south! Hard to imagine center getting to Olympic Penninsula 

Exactly.    Makes no sense.

This is what 18Z ECMWF showed,

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA down to 31 with freezing rain... Cliff should be getting nervous.

Another epic Cliff Mass self-own!

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

 

BOOM this is the type of clap back we need to see! 

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Thats south! Hard to imagine center getting to Olympic Penninsula 

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Thats south! Hard to imagine center getting to Olympic Penninsula 

No way that’s going to move far north unless it teleports. 

[GHweatherChris]

925 temps have cooled, they were almost +7 here an hour ago....

 

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Exactly.    Makes no sense.

This is what 18Z ECMWF showed,

Just looking at that makes no sense. This is proof the Matrix is real. 

[KingstonWX]

12 minutes ago, North_County said:

Side note, but does anyone else call a freezing rain event a "silver thaw"? Or is that just a local colloquialism? Growing up, that's what I always heard it referred to as. But I don't think I've ever heard that phrase from anyone outside of Whatcom County.

I once had a step-daddy, he was about one of oh say five of 'em. He came from Idaho, back where they grow taters n stuff and he once told me, "Boy, once you see that silver thaw of the freezin' rain, then you know it be spring comin' upon us soon." 

That's when I knew, we would get ZR tonight. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

No way that’s going to move far north unless it teleports. 

Particularly because its currently headed due east at a good clip.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

BOOM this is the type of clap back we need to see! 

“Old Man winter” has me dying with laughter 

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Particularly because its currently headed due east as good clip.

Makes you wonder will the snow forecast for SWBC bust. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Lies, that term has been around forever, Stampede Pass has experience it many times, you experienced several up there.

I think it's really old-fashioned. I think I remember reading about it in old books as a kid, but not ever hearing it in real life.

[Winterdog]

Getting moderate freezing rain now.. 31.5 degrees.  No surprises here.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Particularly because it’s currently headed due east as good clip.

It’s hard to imagine the euro and the other models being so wrong though. Like the low just falls apart and shifts north? Would be a really interesting scenario for the models to pick up on such a complicated scenario perfectly. 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the heaviest part of the band is over the I-90 corridor now moving rapidly north... radar echoes to the south are weaker and sort of falling apart.   I thought it was going start around 9 here and go until 2 a.m. 

[Snowlova]

Wonder what the 0z euro will show with that low...

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

No way that’s going to move far north unless it teleports. 

energy phase with upper level low in BC, but I don't see it jumping that far north either

[KingstonWX]

29.8 and light rain here. Weird stuff. 

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, Snowlova said:

Wonder what the 0z euro will show with that low...

It will show it in Southern BC!

[SnowySeeker50]

Starting to get a glaze on plants and trash cans

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Exactly.    Makes no sense.

This is what 18Z ECMWF showed,

The surface low isn’t necessarily going to be aligned with the mid-level low as viewed via visual/IR.

[seattleweatherguy]

32 with a dp of 24 and freezing rain?

[Chewbacca Defense]

13 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

 

D**n, almost makes me want to reactivate my twitter account so I can get in on the trolling

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

The surface low isn’t necessarily going to be aligned with the mid-level low as viewed via visual/IR.

Thanks... its so confusing.  

[Brennan]

31 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

*** that guy.

I think you left out 1 star. It’s spelled “****”

[ajreich]

22.3 and raining steadily. Probably .25 of ice on everything? Forecast now says we don’t get above freezing until 7 am

[Phishy Wx]

in NWS Spokane's latest AFD (not sure how this plays out but will be cool to see it play out, if it does)

 

A strong winter storm will impact the Inland NW as an upper low
dropping down along the British Columbia coast combines with a 
low moving in up from the southwest. The low approaching from the 
southwest will send a warm front across the region tonight into 
Wednesday with snow starting in Central and SE Washington between 
9 PM-Midnight, reaching reaching NE Washington and the North Idaho
Panhandle between midnight-2 am. Will be adjusted the start time
for some of the advisories and warnings to start a few hours
later. This will be round one of snow, with a brief letup in the 
snow intensity by mid- morning. The low approaching from the 
southwest then gets picked up by the trough dropping down from 
British Columbia during the day on Wednesday bringing increased 
atmospheric lift over the region. The surface low shifts east into
the Puget Sound area Wednesday afternoon and then tracking to 
over the Palouse area Wednesday evening.

[Phil]

Also ignore the “L” symbol on those WxBell graphs, it’s next to meaningless as these mid latitude lows have multiple small scale pressure minimas, and the “L” only indicates where the lowest minima is. It will jump all over the place.

In miller-B nor’easter that L symbol “teleports” to the coast all the time as that portion of the storm intensifies. It’s often referred to as the “transfer” to the coast, but that’s actually not what’s happening at all.

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

The surface low isn’t necessarily going to be aligned with the mid-level low as viewed via visual/IR.

yep, I don't think it becomes vertically stacked until it gets east of the cascades

[Chewbacca Defense]

9 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Makes you wonder will the snow forecast for SWBC bust. 

Yeah I've been wondering about that.....