January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

East wind which was blowing all night here has totally died now... the flow appears to be shifting from E to SE right now and eventually SW here for a couple hours around noon.

Temp is spiking here now, up to 34.2

[SnowySeeker50]

Currently 32f. Roads are just bare and wet.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

A mixture of rain and sleet here as the precipitation picks back up. Burlington is closed partly for the roads which probably won’t improve but also partly because a lot of teachers live up in Whatcom county and they’re probably not making it down here today.

Ahhh, that makes sense. And that looks lovely! First time I can ever remember you having white cover while I have a wet deck! 

[Tyler Mode]

Part of my plum tree just snapped.  Up to 30 though.

[ajreich]

Gross. Shocked again we haven’t lost power. 
 

[Willamette Weenie]

Over 100 hours below freezing but the thaw has started... that was one hell of an arctic blast!

[Skagit Weather]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Ahhh, that makes sense. And that looks lovely! First time I can ever remember you having white cover while I have a wet deck! 

Yeah,  I think maybe the only other time since I joined the forum 13 years ago was Feb 22-24, 2014. That was when BLI got buried and I ended up with 50 hours straight of rain/snow mix. I think I had 2" of accumulation from that despite a liquid total near 2.5".

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Even when things start melting be careful. I just ate sh$t on the driveway. Cut my leg open on the ice too. Ouch! 

Edited January 17 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Cars on side streets starting to scrape bottom…

[Phil]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Well back to regularly scheduled programming…

Here is the Fuzz. 

Well defined period of Niño forcing coming up from ~ 1/25 - 2/15. Unlike the period encompassing recent arctic blast, this is a much higher confidence forecast (constructive interference regimes are easier to forecast than destructive interference regimes).

But come mid/late Feb, it’s possible MJO is still healthy and returns to the IO/E-Hem, in which case, renewed momentum loss could make things interesting again.

1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

That actually sums it up pretty good.  2 things I miss about summers in the south.  The symphony of sounds coming from the woods (they call them "woods" there, not "forests") and fireflies.  3 things....nighttime thunderstorm in the distance.  Maybe just close enough that you hear the occasional faint rumble of thunder.

A good thunderstorm in close proximity is nice too, but for setting a chill mood, those 3 things right there.

 

My wife is a die hard PNW girl, but her first time going to the Georgia coast, she wanted to pick up and move immediately.  I had to reminder her that we would not be living in a beachfront house but would instead be living along swamp land inland, and she dialed back her enthusiasm a bit.  Plus she has a very pale complexion, so she absolutely fries in the sun down there.

Oh yeah, I do enjoy those aspects of summer as well. We get that same nighttime insect symphony with distant lightning flickering most nights, but somehow the vibe is different in the coastal SE. Can’t entirely put my finger on it.

44 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

the Boone/Banner Elk area of NC is nice and has all 4 seasons.  you can get property up to close to 6000' in a few areas, which is high for the east coast, high for anywhere outside of the Rockies or Sierra really

High elevations in NC are amazing too. Beech Mountain/Banner Elk is a literal oasis, will often be in the low 70s up there while it’s in the 90s here. And they average ~ 70” of precip with 60-80” of snow on the upslope side of the terrain. I could definitively live there.

40 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

people hug the GFS and GEFS around here like its Gospel and it perplexes that F out of me.  People post all the time the verification rates and the GFS is often 4th or 5th to the Euro, GEM and sometimes UKMET and ICON

This is so true, but I’ve given up posting about it. The worst global model gets 90% of the attention here and it’s a major contributor to the drama here.

Will say it again, for the umpteenth time: the GFS will take years off your life expectancy if you let it. Don’t let it.

[Chewbacca Defense]

18 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

A mixture of rain and sleet here as the precipitation picks back up. Burlington is closed partly for the roads which probably won’t improve but also partly because a lot of teachers live up in Whatcom county and they’re probably not making it down here today.

LOL I play soccer with a few of those teachers, and yes they live in Bellingham.

My son stayed home today (he works in Hamilton), judging by what I am seeing of I-5 through the canyon, probably a good call.

[Chewbacca Defense]

It's starting to look like a snowglobe out my window!

[Brennan]

Snow globe status in Whatcom County. Million text message of videos and pics coming through.

[MossMan]

Know why Stanwood closed as well now, apparently Camano turned into one big sheet of ice overnight and Stanwood SD services the island as well. Also I went out to my shop and the concrete pad in front of my driveway was icy/slushy I’m assuming from last evenings ice and sleet. Visually you can’t see it but it’s slick. The ground is still so cold.

temp is dropping in the last 15min from 34.2 to 33.6 now. 

[Skagit Weather]

Just switched back to some very wet snow here. Not sure it's going to accumulate at this temperature, but nice to see.

[SnowySeeker50]

Most school districts running 2 hours late here or just closed. Overconfident Enumclaw didn't and had a bus end up in a ditch and many just slid around until they hit a mailbox so definitely was a good call for most districts.

[Phil]

I’m salty places around me decoupled & tanked to near 0°F while we stayed at 14°F. The NW winds never give up at my location.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Know why Stanwood closed as well now, apparently Camano turned into one big sheet of ice overnight and Stanwood SD services the island as well. Also I went out to my shop and the concrete pad in front of my driveway was icy/slushy I’m assuming from last evenings ice and sleet. Visually you can’t see it but it’s slick. The ground is still so cold.

temp is dropping in the last 15min from 34.2 to 33.6 now. 

You might get some snow when that next batch moves through,  it has some colder air with it.

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

Still 27°F and raining, schools closed. Trying to decide if attempting to make it to work is a safe decision. 

[Phil]

Just now, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

Still 27°F and raining, schools closed. Trying to decide if attempting to make it to work is a safe decision. 

I’d avoid it, there’s always a patch of black ice somewhere in ZR if it’s in the 20s, even if roads are well treated.

[iFred]

45 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

people hug the GFS and GEFS around here like its Gospel and it perplexes that F out of me.  People post all the time the verification rates and the GFS is often 4th or 5th to the Euro, GEM and sometimes UKMET and ICON

I tried banning people for posting the GFS but apparently people are little cry babies. Sure, the GFS was the first model to resolve a western Pacific low which resulted in a weaker than forecasted ridge, but we all know that Euro ensemble perturbation 34 was actually correct the entire time.

[westcoastexpat]

7" so far. Heaviest snow falling now. Could make a run at 9"!

[RCola]

Congrats to Northern folks! Pictures look beautiful. Here's hoping we can get something in the Seattle area later this winter, even if it's brief. We're due for a low at the Columbia.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, westcoastexpat said:

7" so far. Heaviest snow falling now. Could make a run at 9"!

Oh hell yes. Inject that into my veins.

[the_convergence_zone]

The overnight ensembles are sniffing out a pretty big AR event at the end of next week with toasty temperatures. Portland hasn't been in the upper-60s for over a month, so I guess they are due. 

[T-Town]

31 minutes ago, Blizzard777 said:

Been stuck at 32.8 with a dp of 27

a few surfaces with some ice but mostly everything just wet 

Just went for a walk. No ice just cold and wet. 

[Skagit Weather]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

You might get some snow when that next batch moves through,  it has some colder air with it.

Yeah, the issue is this warm tongue to the east of the Sound which shows up on the 925mb. Upper level temps should drop below freezing in the next 2-4 hours as it shifts south/east. The only question is whether the precipitation ends for people (like @MossMan) before the temperatures drop below freezing. I think a number of people will quick up a quick inch or two.

925 mb temps

850mb temps

[North_County]

27 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

A lady gave birth inside the Battle Ground fire station this morning.  Couldn't get to the hospital.  That'll be a story!

My mom helped deliver a baby on the pool table of our volunteer fire station during the December 1996 snowstorm. They were a family passing through town and trying to cross the border, before getting stuck in blizzard conditions. She still has a newspaper clipping of that story floating around somewhere.

[LowerGarfield]

I only have .40 of new snow but I was able to debut my new official snow ruler. More snow expected later. I'm excited that I don't have to do math, dividing 100 by 12.5 anymore.

[Phil]

So was Cliff Mass right or full of s**t? Honest question as I don’t know the specific goalposts set for the squabble last night. All I know is he was taking a beating on here.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice to see folx up north getting snow!

[LowerGarfield]

9 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Pullman, not necessarily a place I recommend living, has had lows of -19, -21, -10, and -11 the last four days.

Pullman is fine but most people prefer Moscow if you aren't living or working at WSU. I prefer Moscow too. Also they get slightly more snow than Pullman but it's pretty close. Moscow gets about 15-20 more inches than Pullman does which surprised me a bit.

[Slushy Inch]

Gfs long range 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just went above freezing to end this little ice event. Significantly less than last year which is nice 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

So was Mark Nelsen right or full of s**t? Honest question as I don’t know the specific goalposts set for the squabble last night. All I know is he was taking a beating on here, lol.

Was he? I think he was a few hours behind on the warm up which is typical. I think he said is still a couple hours behind on the warm up this morning, but it’s still progressing. Slowly. 

[Blizzard777]

49 minutes ago, Blizzard777 said:

South Sound folks

Lol…just makes it a bit worse when the ex sends you her current disposition up near the boarder 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Temperature now down to 30.0˚F. 7.3" and counting. Still dumping.

[Slushy Inch]

Yeah. Seeing this pop up in the models mega atmospheric river pattern 

[North_County]

Coming down at a pretty good clip.

Ignore the string lights hanging down from the pole. I laid the other poles down when the wind was ripping last week out of fear that one would come crashing through my sliding glass door.

[bainbridgekid]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

So was Mark Nelsen right or full of s**t? Honest question as I don’t know the specific goalposts set for the squabble last night. All I know is he was taking a beating on here.  

Cliff Mass not Mark Nelsen. He said it would be "way too warm" for ZR in Seattle and there might be "a few flakes or spots of ZR around Puget Sound."

Friends in North Seattle report icy side streets and glazed cars there so there was definitely Freezing Rain in portions of the city. And most suburbs got more. School's cancelled here five miles North of the city for it. He was wrong.